Zhang Weili will put her Strawweight Championship on the line against Tatiana Suarez in what is one of a handful of title bouts scheduled for UFC 312. Can Weili successfully defend her belt for a third straight match? That is what we are here to figure out.
- What: UFC 312
- When: Saturday, February 9, 2025
- Start Time: 7 p.m. EST (preliminary bouts), 10 p.m. EST (main card)
- Where: Sydney, Australia
- Venue: Qudos Bank Arena
- Where to Watch: ESPN+ (preliminary rounds; subscription required), Pay Per View (main event)
- Main Event: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland
It comes as little surprise that Weili vs. Suarez checks in as the co-main event. Heck if not for Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland Part 2 at UFC 312, Suarez vs. Weili would be the clear choice to be the absolute headlining event.
Weili will arrive in Sydney with an overall record of 25-3-0. She initially seized the Strawweight belt by beating then-champion Carla Esparza at UFC 281 in November 2022 with a rear naked choke submission. And she has never come close to relinquishing the title since.
In 2023, at UFC 292, Weili beat Amanda Lemos by unanimous decision after winning the striking battle 163-24 and the takedown battle 6-0. Then, at UFC 300 in April 2024, she defeated Yan Xiaonan, once again by unanimous decision. Weili won that striking battle by another monster margin, 106-43.
However, Suarez will arguably Weili’s toughest challenge so far. The former enters UFC 312 with a perfect 11-0-0 lifetime record inside the octagon. Each of her last two fights have been won by submission, using guillotine chokes. Her last victory stands out in particular. She beat Jessica Andrade without much muss or fuss.
UFC 312 Co-Main Event: Zhang Weili vs Tatiana Suarez Betting Lines
Although online UFC betting odds almost always tend to favor the reigning champ, Tatiana Suarez vs. Zhang Weili opens the door for an exception. Suarez’s undefeated record looms large—and is appealing to many.
Ultimately, though, all of the top UFC online sports books in the United States are concretely giving the edge to Weili. You can see for yourself below:
Make sure you are continuously checking these UFC 312 betting odds right up until you actually submit your wager. Our UFC 312 betting lines are accurate entering Monday, January 27. This gives the best online UFC betting sites more than enough time to make adjustments ahead of the opening bell.
Unlike Du Plessis vs. Strickland, we can see Suarez vs. Weili odds undergoing significant change. Specifically, we expect the UFC 312 betting lines to move closer toward Suarez. If nothing else, the sheen of her undefeated record will invariably attract last-minute bettors looking for higher-value payout opportunities.
The Case for Zhang Weili to Beat Tatiana Suarez
Weili has received criticism in certain circles for being what is considered a “relatively inactive” champion. She has taken just on just one challenger per year since grabbing the Strawweight belt in November 2022.
Whether this line of thinking holds water is debatable. Her talent is not. It is undeniable.
The 35-year-old is, frankly, overwhelming. She is currently landing 5.66 significant strikes per minute at a 53 percent clip. That is an absurd meld of volume of efficiency.
On top of that, Weili has shown the ability to best opponents using a variety of approaches. She will mix in quick-fire striking combos, tough-to-evade kicks and even ridiculous wrestling maneuvers. Weili is averaging 2.51 takedowns per 15 minutes and has successfully delivered six of them across each of her past two fights.
Keeping pace with the champ can be difficult, bordering on impossible. If Suarez is unable to limit the striking volume, in particular, she will have an unfathomably hard time avoiding defeat.
The Case for Tatiana Suarez to Beat Zhang Weili
Some have posited that Suarez would be less of an underdog if she had a larger sample size under her belt. Injuries have plagued her for much of her career.
Still, it is impossible to argue with the results when she’s actually healthy. Suarez has victories over a handful of standout opponents, including Jessica Adrade, Montana De La Rosa, Nina Nunes and Carla Esparza. The undefeated record should speak for itself.
Suarez is also connecting on 4.27 significant strikes per minute. Not only that, but she is landing them at a 63 percent clip—way above the UFC average of 47 percent. And it is not like she is overly reliant on one style. She won’t secure a KO/TKO often, but she has the power to do so. And her armory of submissive maneuvers is ultra-deep, though she is best at the guillotine choke and d’arce choke.
Impressive still, Suarez averages 6.2 takedowns per 15 minutes, at another 60-plus percent clip. And though her striking defense can be touch and go, Weili will have a hard time bringing her to the mat. Suarez’s opponents have yet to land a single takedown against her at the UFC level.
Point being: Durability concerns are fair. But the results are inarguable. Suarez is one of the more full-package fighters in The Company.
UFC 312 Picks for Weili vs Suarez
Surely we are not about to predict a new women’s UFC Strawweight Champion, right?
Wrong.
Tatiana Suarez is our pick to pull off the upset. While many are annoyed she secured this title shot after failing to perform against two contenders, there is a reason she’s here at all. When healthy, she is almost the entire package.
To be clear, we do not expect this to be an easy fight. It was far from a no-brainer pick for us. Zhang Weili is a combination of intelligible and ferocious. She may not fight often, but she’s dominant when she does.
And yet, nobody has successfully knocked off a healthy Suarez. All indications are that’s the version of Suarez that Weili will be getting. So long as that’s the case, we believe Suarez is a sleeping giant—and about to snag the UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship.
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