Best UFC 312 Bets: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland

Dan Favale
By , Updated on: Jan 27, 2025 12:00 AM
A Middleweight title bout is scheduled between Dricus Du Plessis and Sean Strickland at UFC 312. OSB breaks down which fighter will win.

The UFC is headed to Australia. And it’s bringing a championship loaded UFC 312 fight card with it.

A Middleweight title bout between Dricus Du Plessis and Sean Strickland is generating the most buzz. Good thing, too. Because it also happens to be the UFC 312 main event. Not only that, but it marks the second time Du Plessis and Strickland have stepped into the octagon versus one another. 

  • What: UFC 312 
  • When: Saturday, February 9, 2025
  • Start Time: 7 p.m. EST (preliminary bouts), 10 p.m. EST (main card)
  • Where: Sydney, Australia
  • Venue: Qudos Bank Arena
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+ (preliminary rounds; subscription required), Pay Per View (main event)
  • Main Event: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland

These two first met at UFC 297. Strickland held the Middleweight belt at the time. But Du Plessis ended up winning to secure the championship in what was a split-decision.

Since then, Du Plessis has defended his title belt once. Israel Adesanya faced him at UFC 305 back in August 2024. Du Plessis forced him into submission, during Round 4, with a rear naked chokehold. He will enter UFC 312 now with a lifetime record of 22-2-0 and having not lost a match since joining The Company in 2020. 

Strickland, meanwhile, takes an overall record of 29-6-0 to Australia. Since losing the Middleweight belt to Strickland, he has fought once, at UFC 302 back in June, where he dispatched Paulo Costa by split decision after winning the striking battle 182-158.

UFC 312 Main Event: Dricus Du Plessis vs Sean Strickland Betting Lines

Title fights usually see online UFC betting odds gravitate toward the reigning champion. The betting lines for Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland will not be an exception. Check out the latest UFC 312 betting lines below: 

To WinBetOnlineBovadaBetUSMyBookie
Dricus Du Plessis-190-190-197-185
Sean Strickland+165+170+158+160

Keep rechecking these UFC 312 betting odds right up until you actually submit your wager. Our UFC 312 betting lines are accurate entering Monday, January 27. This gives the best online UFC betting sites a couple of weeks to make adjustments ahead of the opening bell.

For what it’s worth, this is not a match in which we expect much movement during the lead-up. There may be some 11th hour action funneled toward Strickland, since he’s a former champion who took down Israel Adesanya. But his Middleweight title reign was short-lived. And Plessis continues to dominate the competition in front of him. If anything, we might see Plessis become an even heavier favorite between now and the start of UFC 312.

The Case for Dricus Du Plessis to Beat Sean Strickland

It comes as no surprise that all of the major sports betting apps in the United States have Dricus Du Plessis decidedly favored to beat Sean Strickland. Never mind that he bested the former champ during their first showdown. He has been on an absolute tear in general.

The 31-year-old’s striking is honestly absurd. He lands 6.18 significant strikes per minute at a 49 percent clip, which is slightly above the UFC average of 47 percent. In all six of his fights since 2022, Du Plessis has won the striking battle by an advantage of at least 30. That is truly mind-melting.

What’s more, he has proven to be among the best at reorienting his style depending on the opponent. He will always thrive while unleashing an avalanche of quick combinations once he sees an opening. But the methods by which he waits out or creates those windows will vary. He has the stamina to go full bore, the patience to wait out opponents, and even the IQ to succeed while operating from defensive positions.

Right now, there may not be a better all-around fighter in the Middleweight division. That is Du Plessis’ case in a nutshell. 

Dricus Du Plessis To beat Sean Strickland at UFC 312
BetOnline
-190

The Case for Sean Strickland to Beat Dricus Du Plessis

Strickland’s stamina is likely his best weapon against Du Plessis. The 33-year-old is no stranger to going a full five rounds. And in recent fights, he has tried to methodically break down and wait out opponents.

That will not always fly against someone like Du Plessis, who can flip the aggression switch seemingly at will. But Peak Strickland can navigate those flurries. While he is not the most accurate strike, he is still landing over six significant blows per minute.

Beyond that, his defense is notorious. Opponents connect on just 39 percent of their striking attempts when facing him, as well as only 23 percent of their takedown approaches. 

If Strickland can turn this into a slog, or a pusher’s affair, he has an arsenal that’s versatile enough to win this matchup by a split decision.

Sean Strickland To beat Dricus Du Plessis at UFC 312
BetOnline
+165

UFC 312 Picks for Du Plessis vs Strickland

While Du Plessis vs Strickland 2 is an incredibly compelling main event, we do not find this decision particularly hard. Du Plessis is going to win. 

And there’s a chance he does so running away.

Strickland did a fairly nice job keeping pace with Du Plessis’ striking back at UFC 297. But his defense could not hold up against the then-challenger’s approaches. Du Plessis finished with six takedowns to Strickland’s zero the first time around

Indeed, the latter’s defensive stances may get better in Part 2. But given the fight-to-fight adjustments and improvements that Du Plessis has made throughout his career, it is nearly impossible for us to pick against him.

Dricus Du Plessis To beat Sean Strickland at UFC 312
BetOnline
-190

Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can find one that works for all of your sports betting needs:

Meet the author

Dan Favale

Dan first began writing about sports back in 2011. At the time, his expertise lied in the NBA and NFL. More than one decade, that remains the case. But he's also expanded his catalog to include extensive knowledge and analysis on the NHL, MLB, tennis, NASCAR, college ba...

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