Tallison Teixeira will put his unbeaten heavyweight record on the line when he meets Justin Tafa inside the octagon at UFC 312. Which fighter will leave Sydney, Australia, this Saturday with a potentially resume-altering victory? Let’s find out.
- What: UFC 312
- When: Saturday, February 9, 2025
- Start Time: 7 p.m. EST (preliminary bouts), 10 p.m. EST (main card)
- Where: Sydney, Australia
- Venue: Qudos Bank Arena
- Where to Watch: ESPN+ (preliminary rounds; subscription required), Pay Per View (main event)
- Main Event: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland
If you’re in the market for main-event predictions, consider checking out our UFC 312 picks for Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland. However, as the third showdown on the main card, Teixeira vs. Tafa is also well worth your time and attention.
Teixeira comes to UFC 312 with an overall record of 7-0-0. He earned his contract with The Company after notching a staggering knockout during Dana White’s contender series. His previous win against Arthur Lopes is the match that earned him the promotion. This will be the 25-year-old’s first fight since then. Both fans and pundits alike are wondering whether he is a legitimate up-and-coming contender to watch out for moving forward.
Tafa arrives in Sydney with a more expansive UFC resume. He has a 7-4-0 lifetime record (with one no-contest). Many believed he turned a corner after rattling off consecutive victories against Harry Hunsucker and Parker Porter (at UFC 284). But he then lost to Austen Lane at a Fight Night in June 2023. And while he exacted revenge on Lane at UFC 293, he dropped his next match against Karl Williams last March, losing by unanimous decision.
UFC 312 Heavyweight Showdown: Tallison Teixeira vs. Justin Tafa Betting Lines
If you were expecting the top sports betting sites in the United States to favor the fighter with more experience, well, you’re about to be in for a surprise. As you can see below, the latest online UFC betting odds bill Tallison Teixeira as the favorite to beat Justin Tafa:
As always, please remember to keep checking these UFC 312 betting odds right up until you actually submit your wager. Our UFC 312 betting lines are accurate entering Monday, February 3. This gives the best online UFC betting sites more than enough time to make adjustments ahead of the opening bell.
For Tafa vs. Teixeira specifically, we anticipate noticeable movement. Fight week is always a turbulent time for UFC betting lines. On top of that, the margins here are relatively thin. So, there could be a last-minute push from the public to capitalize on Tafa’s underdog odds.
The Case for Tallison Teixeira to Beat Justin Tafa
While the sample size for Teixeira is minimal at this point, he turned a bunch of heads when he knocked out Arthur Lopes in the first round of a contender series matchup this past September. As far back as we can tell, the 6’7”, 258-pound Brazilian has boasted standout aggression and power. He averaged over 14 significant strikes landed per minute in his victory over Lopes.
Skeptics worry about his stamina. There is some validity here. Longevity is a concern for many heavyweight fighters, and the intensity with which Teixeira goes at his opponents is not sustainable for too many rounds. The catch-22 of his aggression: He is also susceptible to withstanding a ton of blows himself.
Still, Teixeira is seemingly built for it. He has a strong center of gravity, and he attacks from a variety of different striking angles to keep even the most conservative and high-IQ opponents on tilt.
Throw in above-average punching efficiency for someone with his power profile, and it’s possible Justin Tafa won’t make it to Round 2.
The Case for Justin Tafa to Beat Tallison Teixeira
Public perception of Justin Tafa has soured over the past couple of years. The 6’0”, 264-pound Southpaw has dropped two of his past three matches and four of his last seven overall.
Losing to Karl Williams most recently sealed the deal for many. Tafa lost the striking battle 40-21, and his evasive maneuvers completely flopped. Williams completed seven takedowns through three rounds.
And yet, Tafa can still deliver some truly powerful striking combinations. Each of his past two victories have come by a punching knockout. He has even been known to mix in some impressive range-of-motion kicks to increase his offensive reach.
Throughout his career, Tafa is at his best when he mixes aggressive with his methodical defense. Knocking out Teixeira will be difficult, even with Tafa’s power. But if he can avoid becoming too passive and go on the offensive enough times, this is absolutely a match that can favor him in a decision.
UFC 312 Picks for Teixeira vs Tafa
With all due respect to Tafa, we are pretty surprised to see that Teixeira is not the heavier favorite.
Indeed, the 25-year-old’s resume at the UFC level isn’t nearly as long. But his career footage and statistics speak for themselves.
More than that, Teixeira is seven inches taller, with a reach that is nine inches longer. Tafa does have a slight weight advantage, but that may serve to undermine him here. It carries upside if he’s a more active striker. But he generally prefers to not act as the aggressor. And if he tilts toward evasive maneuvers, um, good luck. Teixeira’s length can bridge all sorts of gaps, and though he doesn’t look it, he has some real mobility to him inside the octagon. Especially when it comes to first-round offensive assaults.
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