It Turns Out Missouri Sports Betting Remains in Limbo After All

The Missouri sports betting saga may not be over after all.

On election night, initial results had Amendment 2, which would legalize sports betting in The Show Me State, getting majority approval by a fairly slim margin. Fast forward roughly two weeks, and we found out the passage of the Missouri sports betting bill was a closer call than originally reported. Though that opened the door for a potential recount—and possible failure—the outcome still appeared to be set.

So much for that.

As results from the Missouri 2024 election continue to trickle in, the margin of victory for Amendment 2 is apparently growing smaller. The margins are so narrow, in fact, many have gone from considering a recount unlikely to assuming that it is inevitable.

What does this mean for the future of sports betting in Missouri? Nobody can be certain. Details and developments are flooding forward on a daily basis. But let’s see if we can shed some clarity on the current circumstances.

Missouri Sports Betting Ballots are Still Being Counted

Though the election was now over two weeks ago, officials continue to pore over uncounted ballots. Here is Eleanor Nash of The Kansas City Star with the latest:

“The margin has narrowed for Missouri’s Amendment 2, which could legalize sports gambling in the state if passed. Missouri voters woke up after election night to find sports betting passing by a very small amount, just over 4,000 votes out of almost 3 million ballots. But provisional ballots are still being counted. As that happens, the margin of victory continues to narrow, presenting the possibility of a statewide recount on Amendment 2. As of the evening of Thursday, Nov. 21, the ‘yes’ vote was ahead by 2,735 votes, a difference of just 0.09 percent. However, the numbers are still fluctuating, according to JoDonn Chaney, director of communications for the Missouri Secretary of State’s Office.”

This margin is mind-meltingly close. As we have already covered, certain regions have seen a 0.02 percent difference between votes one way or another.

It is even more jarring, though, to see fewer than 2,800 votes separate the result for the entire state. And if ballots are still being counted, this is a gap that could technically be erased in its entirety.

None of this is to say the result will not hold. If we had to guess, it will. But the even tighter margins open the door for a recount.

Is a Recount on Missouri Amendment 2 Now Inevitable?

A day or two ago, the answer to this question would be a resounding “No.” But now, who knows? We wouldn’t go as far as to predict an Amendment 2 recount. However, even if the result holds in favor of Missouri sports betting legalization, the margin is slim enough that opponents could call for one. After all, if the final tally is separated by fewer than 2,000 votes or something, this opens the door for other clerical or human errors to be discovered in a recount.

Still, certain criteria must hold for a recount to be called. Other factors are at play, too. Nash lays it all out for us:

“For a recount to happen, the margin of victory has to be small enough and someone has to request a recount. A recount can be requested between Dec. 10 and Dec. 17 if the margin is less than 0.5 percent, a difference of approximately 14,700 votes in this case, according to Missouri law. The Amendment 2 results fall into this category. Missouri law has been interpreted to allow only those with ‘a direct interest or ‘position’ to the issue as persons who can request a recount,’ according to Chaney. The official committee opposing Amendment 2 leading up to the election was Missourians Against the Deceptive Online Gambling Amendment, so that’s the most likely candidate to request a recount. Whoever requests a recount might be required to pay for it, according to Missouri law.”

Based on what we know now, the Missouri sports betting measure will be eligible for a recount. Whether opponents call for one may depend on the finances. If they are forced to pay out of pocket for one, anti-gambling coalitions may not have the pockets necessary to bankroll it.

Expect More Twist and Turns as Missouri Figures Out The Final Sports Betting Results

Initial reports suggested Missourians Against the Deceptive Online Gambling Amendment would not call for a recount. That is why we cannot help but harp on the potential cost of demanding one.

At the same time, Caesars Entertainment opposed the bill as well. While they are ingrained into the fabric of sports betting in the United States, they operate casinos that stand to be adversely impacted by the introduction of online operators. A company like this certainly has the money to underwrite a recount. So, we would keep an eye on that scenario. Especially if the voting margins continue to winnow down.

Of course, Caesars and any other opponents may just take the end results at face value—whatever they might be. Data compiled by FairVote, a nonpartisan 501 lobbying organization, shows that recounts usually wind up increasing the margin of victory for the prevailing side.

According to them, “only three of the 36 completed statewide recounts around the country from 2000 through 2023” ended up changing the overall results. They also note that these were “exceptionally close races” that had margins of victory under 0.06 percent.

Perhaps that makes a recount in this instance prohibitive. Then again, the Missouri sports betting bill is hovering close to the 0.06 percent differential. The final tally would need to be separated by around 1,700 votes to fall into that bucket. At this writing, this means that the current margin would need to shrink by another 1,000 votes.

Is this particularly likely? Or especially possible? We should all refrain from pretending to know. When it comes to Missouri sports betting, we should apparently default to expecting the unexpected.

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