The Legalization of Missouri Sports Betting was a Closer Call Than We Thought

The bill to legalize Missouri sports betting passed during the 2024 election. And as we knew at the time, the vote was close. Really close.

Apparently, though, it was even closer than we thought.

Uncounted ballots have continued to come through in the past two weeks. These uncounted votes have even further winnowed down the margins of victory for sports betting in Missouri. And while The Show Me State does not appear in danger of having to retract the result, the infinitesimal differential has many wondering whether officials will face additional challenges as they figure out a Missouri sports betting launch date.

Uncounted Ballots Almost Led to Missouri Sports Betting Failure

Reporting for KY3 in Springfield, Missouri, Chris Bryant explains how uncounted ballots are impacting the final sports betting vote:

“The Christian County clerk added 9,800 votes to the county’s certified total submitted to the Missouri Secretary of State’s office. Clerk Paula Brumfield says those were absentee, mail-in, and provisional ballots. In the late hours of election night, the clerk postponed the count of those ballots until Wednesday morning. According to the clerk, her team did not count them on election day because the machines would have erased all of the ballot data if they had been shut down. Brumfield said the decision was made with the agreement of the Republican and Democratic party representatives in the office.

“For the November election, Christian County has 68,453 registered voters. ‘We were at 75 percent even,’ says Brumfield. That is 51,342 who voted. When those numbers were finalized, the vote margin for Amendment 2 was around 400 total votes. By Friday morning, that difference was back up to 747 votes, a margin of 0.02 percent.”

A margin of 0.02 percent is truly bonkers. Larger-scale elections do not usually face such tight margins. “I don’t think I’ve ever seen a sports betting ballot initiative this close,” Matta, a senior adviser for Spectrum Gaming Capital with 20 years of experience in the online gambling and sports betting industry, told Trey Kent of the Columbia Missourian.

Supporters of Missouri sports betting may be sweating right about now. But it does seem that the result has been certified. This should mean that Amendment 2 will be signed into law. 

And yet, the drama is not exactly over. The small margin of victory paves the way for more twists and turns. Depending on what happens next, Missouri sports betting could be in jeopardy.

Missouri May Need to Hold a Recount on the Sports Betting Bill 

Certain experts are beginning to believe that Amendment 2 may require a recount. Any initiative that passes with a 0.5 percent margin or less can technically be thrust under the microscope. As evidenced above, the Missouri sports betting results are well within those boundaries. 

So, should we expect The Show Me State to hold off certification that is supposed to come by early December? We do not have a definitive answer. But as Kent writes, a recount is absolutely on the table:

“The Missourians Against the Deceptive Online Gambling Amendment campaign, which opposed the sports betting amendment, does not plan to initiate a recount, the Missouri Independent reported Monday, but language in state law indicates any voter who opposed the amendment would have legal grounds to request a recount.”

Truthfully, sports betting supporters can take this as good news. Yes, individual voters can call for a recount. But it would probably take momentum from a larger group to successfully force one. If Missourians Against the Deceptive Online Gambling Amendment aren’t going to push the issue, Amendment 2 could pass through unimpeded. 

At the same time, this doesn’t mean the saga is over. The results are official but still need to be finalized. If the margin shrinks even further, could that compel action from the anti-gambling coalition? Might it prompt action from another group? 

Remember, Caesars Entertainment opposed the bill. While they have directly capitalized off the rise in online sports betting throughout the United States, they also operate casinos in Missouri. On-site gaming operators stand to be adversely impacted by the introduction of mobile betting sites. And a company like Caesars certainly has the juice to lobby for a recount.

Keep an Eye on the Missouri Sports Betting Launch Date 

As of now, it is not clear how or even if this development could impact the launch of Missouri sports betting. 

Amendment 2 mandates that sports betting in Missouri go live no later than December 2025. Officials have publicly stated their intention to roll it in time for betting on the 2025 NFL season to commence. This gives the state at least nine months to resolve the current issue and build out its infrastructure. This is to say, Missouri has plenty of time. Especially if the 2024 election results are validated. 

Still, this is nevertheless worth monitoring moving forward. Sports betting launches can take time. And if a recount of the Missouri sports betting bill is required, it might set back the current plans. Technically speaking, it could even delay the launch until 2026. 

Again: This is not a prediction. But it is certainly something to track, as it seems Amendment 2 isn’t free and clear to become law just yet.

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