Did anybody order a tantalizing Light Heavyweight showdown on the UFC 312 main card? Because Jake Matthews vs. Francisco Prado is poised to deliver one.
- What: UFC 312
- When: Saturday, February 9, 2025
- Start Time: 7 p.m. EST (preliminary bouts), 10 p.m. EST (main card)
- Where: Sydney, Australia
- Venue: Qudos Bank Arena
- Where to Watch: ESPN+ (preliminary rounds; subscription required), Pay Per View (main event)
- Main Event: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland
If you have not already, check out our UFC 312 picks for Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland, which will be Saturday’s main event. Just make sure you are not sleeping on the rest of the main card. It is loaded with intriguing matchups—including this Matthews vs. Prado bout.
Matthews will bring an overall record of 20-7-0 to Sydney. His last fight came on the main card at UFC 302, this past June, where he faced Phil Rowe. He exited the victory with a unanimous decision after winning the striking battle 66-34. However, before that, he lost to Michael Morales in November 2023, in what many consider the extension of a troubling trend. Since his three-match winning streak between 2019 and 2020, Matthews is basically alternating wins and losses.
Prado, meanwhile, comes to UFC 312 with an extensive resume for someone his age. The 22-year-old has a lifetime record of 12-2-0. His debut with The Company came at UFC 284, where he lost to Jamie Mullarkey by unanimous decision. Though he picked up his first official UFC victory against Ottman Azaitar in July 2023, he lost his very next fight in February 2024 to Daniel Zellhuber.
UFC 312 Light Heavyweight Headliner: Jake Matthews vs Francisco Prado
Despite entering with the vastly higher career winning percentage, Prado is currently the decided underdog against Matthews. You can see the latest online UFC betting odds ahead of Saturday’s pay-per-view event below:
Continue to refresh these UFC 312 betting odds right up until you actually submit your wager. Our UFC 312 betting lines are accurate entering Monday, February 3. This gives the best online UFC betting sites more than enough time to make adjustments ahead of the opening bell.
For what it’s worth, though, this isn’t a fight in which we expect there to be much movement. The public is not yet super familiar with Prado. They only know him as someone who has lost two of his first three matches. That is not the strongest first impression, even if he does have a first-round KO/TKO victory under his belt.
If anything, keep an eye on Jake Matthews’ UFC 312 betting odds. There is a chance he’s more than a -210 favorite by the time this match begins.
The Case for Jake Matthews to Beat Francisco Prado
Experience is the key for Matthes as he squares off against Prado. It isn’t just that his resume includes more fights. It’s that he has waaaay more experience fighting at the Light Heavyweight level.
Previously, Prado was fighting at around a 155-pound weight cap. Moving up to the 170-pound division will require adjustments. The opponents, such as Matthews, do not just pack more power. They are also more familiar experimenting with different speeds and footwork.
You might not think another 15 pounds makes a difference. But it does. There’s also the fact that Matthews is pretty darn good. Though he has never lived up to the early hype from a half-decade or so ago, he has improved as both a striking and wrestling defender. Opponents are currently landing just 39 percent of their significant strikes against him as well as only 36 percent of their takedown attempts.
Of course, Matthews is not an excellent striker himself. His attempts land at an uninspiring 44 percent clip, which is below the UFC average of 47 percent. Still, he has honed his wrestling arsenal over the years, an area in which Prado does not have a ton of utility. That variability should serve Matthews well, particularly with Prado entering a new weight class.
The Case for Francisco Prado to Beat Jake Matthews
Early struggles against Mullarkey and Zellhuber can be chalked up to youthful inexperience for Prado. He fights a more aggressive style and doesn’t necessarily adjust based on his opponents tactics. This aggression can also lead to protracted stretchers of errancy. He is landing fewer strikes per minute (4.58) than he absorbs (5.66), which is never a great sign.
Even so, we are talking about just three fights at this level. And he has gotten in his fair share of licks in each of them. Remember, both Zellhuber and Mullarkey needed to take their matches to a decision in order to beat him.
Climbing up a weight class could invariably slow down Prado. That is not necessarily a bad thing. He packs a ton of power and should only be stronger. Chances are that he will have to be more deliberate with his stances and overall approach. That may, in turn, help address some of his biggest issues to date.
UFC 312 Picks for Matthews vs Prado
This matchup is successfully twisting us into a pretzel. Matthews’ experience in this weight class looms large. And he is, without question, the safe option.
But Matthews has turned in a few clunkers over the past couple of years. Trusting his striking speed and accuracy can be touch-and-go, and he’s more likely to bag a submission than a knockout.
That is not problematic, per se. But from what we’ve seen of Prado’s wrestling defense, this could come down to a battle of punching volume and power. And if that is the case, we are inclined to roll with the upset pick.
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