The road to UFC 311 doesn’t just stop with picks for Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan, who will square off in the main event on Saturday, January 18. Far from it, in fact.
The entire main card at UFC 311 is absolutely loaded. This includes the Light Heavyweight bout between Jiri Prochazka and Jamahal Hill.
- What: UFC 311
- When: Saturday, January 18, 2025
- Start Time: 7 p.m. EST (preliminary bouts), 10 p.m. EST (main card)
- Where: Inglewood, California
- Venue: Intuit Dome
- Where to Watch: ESPN 2 (preliminary rounds), Pay Per View (main card fights)
- Main Event: Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan
Prochazka enters UFC 311 with a 30-5-1 overall record. He last fought at UFC 303 against Alex Pereira, in what was a Light Heavyweight championship match. Prochazka lost by KO/TKO, which marked the second time he fell to Pereira in a title showdown. After winning the Light Heavyweight belt from Glover Teixeira at UFC 275, he surrendered it to Pereira at UFC 295.
Hill brings a 12-2-0 overall record to UFC 311. His last fight also came against Alex Pereira, in what was a Light Heavyweight title fight as well. Hill lost by KO/TKO, just like Prochazka. Both fighters are now hoping they can use UFC 311 as a springboard into another Light Heavyweight title shot. This is all to say: The stakes for Prochazka and Hill are high.
UFC 311 Light Heavyweight Showdown: Jiri Prochazka vs Jamahal Hill Betting Lines
With so much on the line for both Prochazka and Hill, the prevailing assumption has been that the online UFC betting odds for this matchup would be impossibly tight. And, well, that is exactly the case.
While Hill is favored to beat Prochazka at most sportsbooks, neither fighter is paying out more than even money, as you can see below.
Remember to double-check these UFC 311 betting odds until you actually submit your wager. Our UFC 311 betting lines are accurate entering Friday, January 10. This gives the best sports betting sites in the United States plenty of time to make adjustments ahead of the opening bell.
Most matchups this close to fight night will not be subject to noticeable swings. However, Prochazka vs. Hill is an exception. We would not even be surprised to see favorites exchange hands. Not only are both fighters coming off a loss to the same guy, but their styles, while not identical, are far from dissimilar. Heck, even their vitals are close. Hill is one inch taller. Prochazka the edge by one inch in his reach (79 inches to 78 inches). And neither fighter is prone to notching submissions, preferring instead to rely on striking power.
The Case for Jamahal Hill to Beat Jiri Prochazka
Some are surprised to see Jamahal Hill earn favorite status in this fight, even if he only has a slight edge. The 33-year-old has dealt with some knee and achilles issues following his loss to Pereira. Entering the octagon at UFC 311 is not exactly a quick turnaround, but battling through those types of setbacks in a span of eight months isn’t the most gradual timeline, either.
Of course, all reports coming out of his camp suggest that Hill has already returned to the form that earned him the Light Heavyweight belt in the first place. And if that’s true, it could turn out that he’s undervalued here.
For his career, “Sweet Dreams” is landing 7.18 significant strikes per minute at a 54 percent accuracy rate. That is a monstrous blend of volume and efficiency. And while his striking defense isn’t the best, the speed and IQ he displays when going on the offensive makes up for a lot of it.
The Case for Jiri Prochazka to Beat Jamahal Hill
People are reading too much into Prochazka dropping two of his past three fights. Both losses have come against the Light Heavyweight champion, and despite falling by KO/TKO each time, this is not someone who lacks intelligence or stamina once inside the octagon.
In fact, Prochazka could be uniquely wired to give Hill a tough time. He lands fewer significant strikes per minute, but he’s still connecting on 5.38 every 60 seconds. His striking accuracy just edges out that of Hill as well.
Wrestling could wind up being the biggest differentiator. Neither Prochazka nor Hill uses it as a crutch, but the former has proven more versatile in that arena. He is averaging around 0.75 takedowns per 15 minutes, and he’s also shown the ability to effectively incorporate rear naked chokes, spinning back elbows, kicks and much more.
UFC 311 Picks for Hill vs Prochazka
Make no mistake, the margins for Hill vs. Prochazka is exactly as close as the UFC 311 betting lines indicate. With that said, we are not so sure Hill deserves to be billed as even the slight favorite.
This feels like a classic case of familiarity, for both bettors and sportsbooks. Hill has the most extensive UFC resume. He also has the benefit of only having lost to Alex Pereiera once.
From our vantage point, though, Prochazka has more attacking tricks in his armory. His dabbling in takedowns may not matter much; he busts those out in low volume, and Hill’s takedown defense is legit. But the sheer breadth of striking and vertical combinations Prochazka has at his disposal is catching our attention. If he comes out aggressive from the opening bell, contrary to how he fared against Pereira, this is a fight that Prochazka can win running away.
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