What could be better than having one title on the line at UFC 311? Having two championships at stake.
Fortunately for us, this will once again be the case on Saturday, January 18. Before Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan square off in the main event for the Lightweight championship, we will see Merab Dvalishvili defend his Bantamweight title against Umar Nurmagomedov. Will we see a shift in ownership of the belt? Let’s find out!
- What: UFC 311
- When: Saturday, January 18, 2025
- Start Time: 7 p.m. EST (preliminary bouts), 10 p.m. EST (main card)
- Where: Inglewood, California
- Venue: Intuit Dome
- Where to Watch: ESPN 2 (preliminary rounds), Pay Per View (main card)
- Main Event: Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan
Dvalishvili enters UFC 311 with an overall record of 18-4-0 and having just secured the Bantamweight title with a win over Sean O’Malley at UFC 306 this past September. His victory followed the unanimous decision trend of his past four victories, and the soon-to-be 34-year-old has now won 11 straight head-to-head showdowns.
Nurmagomedov comes to the Intuit Dome for UFC 311 with an undefeated lifetime record of 18-0-0. His latest victory over Cory Sandhagen this past August basically cemented his Bantamweight title shot.
UFC 311 Bantamweight Championship: Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Merab Dvalishvili Betting Lines
So much for UFC betting sites giving incumbent champions the benefit of the doubt. According to the latest online UFC betting odds for UFC 311, Umar Nurmagomedov is a fairly heavy favorite to win against Merab Dvalishvili. See for yourself below:
Make sure you recheck these Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedov odds until you actually submit all of your wagers. Our UFC 311 betting lines are accurate entering Tuesday, December 10. This gives the best online UFC betting sites over a month to tweak their UFC odds prior to the opening bell.
In this case, specifically, it would not surprise us to see serious movement on the Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Merab Dvalishvili odds. In particular, as we inch closer the match, there will likely be an influx of action on Dvalishvili’s odds to win. Last-minute bettors always tend to hop on the bandwagon of an underdog champion. Could Dvalishvili’s short tenure as the title-holder buck that trend? Definitely. But that underscores the importance of tracking these odds on UFC 311.
The Case for Umar Nurmagomedov to Beat Merab Dvalishvili
It isn’t just that Nurmagomedov is heavily favored at UFC 311. It is that every single one of the top online sportsbooks in the United States have him hovering inside the same heavy-favorite range.
We find this interesting. While the 28-year-old has yet to lose, his resume is not exactly littered with household-name opponents. He lived up to his billing by beating Cory Sandhagen this past August by unanimous decision. But that is his biggest victory to date.
What’s more, he recently revealed that he fractured his arm, and that fighting prior to January 2025 would be too soon, according to USA Today. Perhaps he doesn’t accept this bout if he doesn’t believe he’ll be healed by the opening bell. But he checks in as almost a 3-to-1 favorite. That feels a tad heavy when working off such a critical injury.
Then again, Nurmagomedov is the cousin of UFC Hall of Famer Khabib Nurmagomedov, who also happens to serve as one of the former’s coaches. The two are cut from the same relentless cloth. Umar is landing 4.46 significant strikes per minute at a 63 percent clip that’s well above the UFC average. He is also averaging nearly four takedowns per 15 minutes. With the way he plays offense and defense, it is a genuine surprise when two consecutive fights he’s in go to decisions.
To his credit, Dvalishvili is similarly versatile as a striker and takedown artist. Overall, though, Nurmagomedov has showcased superior efficiency and power.
The Case for Merab Dvalishvili to Beat Umar Nurmagomedov
Do not let the betting odds for Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov fool you. The current bantamweight champion knows how to overwhelm as an attacker.
Entering UFC 311, Dvalishvili is landing 4.35 significant strikes per minute. He is also averaging a whopping 6.1 takedowns per 15 minutes. That his offense scales to so many different approaches is a problem for anyone, including Nurmagomedov.
Some continue to troll Dvalishvili as an interim champion. They don’t place much merit behind someone who has just one non-decision victory since September 2018.
Still, you do not need to rack up KOs and submissions to be an elite UFC fighter. And if you look at Dvalishvili’s track record, the vast majority of those decisions were not actually decisions. They were unanimous calls.
Take his latest victory over Sean O’Malley at UFC 306. Dvalishvili bagged the Bantamweight belt in a unanimous decision by dominating every phase of the fight. He nearly doubled up O’Malley’s successful strikes and finished with six takedowns to the latter’s zero.
UFC 311 Picks for Nurmagomedov vs Dvalishvili
To be completely blunt, we do not love the Umar Nurmagomedov betting odds for UFC 311. Someone working off a fractured hand doesn’t seem like 3-to-1 favorite material. We also find it bizarre that so much of the public action has floated his way. Nurmagomedov opened as less than a 2-to-1 favorite. His odds have significantly shifted from there.
Invariably, we are picking Nurmagomedov to beat Dvalishvili anyway. We don’t necessarily feel good about the risk-reward profile. Dvalishvili definitely has the offensive package to snag a victory.
In the aggregate, though, the current Bantamweight champion has looked choppy when it comes to landing and defending strikes. He goes through cold spells on both offense and defense, and you can’t afford even seconds’ worth of suboptimal technique against someone like Nurmagomedov.
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