There’s a lot of money to be made betting on UFC 290. It’s a stacked card featuring two titles fights and another number-one-contender bout. We have free UFC betting picks on each of those three so stay with us here!
- What: UFC 290
- When: Saturday, July 8
- Where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada
- How to watch: ESPN+ streaming app
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodriguez Betting Pick
There can only be one undisputed featherweight champion. Rodriguez became the interim champion when Volkanovski moved up to lightweight, but the champ is back to defend his gold. As it stands, Volkanovski is a staggering -400 favorite to win across top online betting sites for UFC. We’re not in love with those odds so we’re honing in on the Volkanovski-Rodriguez over/under instead. It’s set at 4.5 rounds and here are the odds both ways:
Rodriguez has one and probably only this path to victory: kick Volkanovski’s head off. Simple as that, honestly. And it’s certainly plausible given Rodriguez's “erratic” fighting style. Erratic is a compliment because opponents never quite know how Rodriguez will come at them. He’s an elite kickboxer and throws kicks at all angles and directions. If one well-timed kick hits Volkanovski, it could be all over right then and there.
That’s a big if though because Volkanovski is as skilled of a fighter as you’ll find in the whole UFC. In that aforementioned lightweight match, Volkanovski lost a close fight to the number-one-rated pound-for-pounder Islam Makhachev. Many, including us, believe Volkanovski did enough to get the win. Despite being the far smaller fighter, Volkanovski matched Islam in both striking and wrestling that night. In a weird way, the loss solidified Volkanovski more than many of his wins at featherweight has.
Our money is squarely on Volkanovski beating Rodriguez, and doing so by decision. Almost half (12) of Volkanovski’s career wins (15) have come via knockout. So he could stop him, but we predict Volkanovski leans on his wrestling this fight instead. Rodriguez’s kicking ability, while deadly, will leave him vulnerable to the takedown, which could be his undoing in the main event.
Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja Betting Pick
The Moreno vs. Pantoja moneyline is closer than the main event — and honestly, it should probably be even tighter than it is. We’ll explain why shortly, but first, see each fighter’s betting line to win:
Very rarely in this sport is the underdog the one who’s beaten the favorite on two occasions. But that’s what we have ourselves here. Pantoja and Moreno have a lot of history, all of which favors Pantoja. In an exhibition fight on The Ultimate Fighter, Pantoja made Moreno tap out. Then in a 2018 UFC Fight Night card, Pantoja won again convincingly by decision. But the fact that was five years ago, and Moreno is a completely different fighter now explains the betting line.
Where Moreno has improved most is his takedown ability. He was formerly one-sided, leaning on his boxing. But Moreno has a real edge to him now on the ground now, which allows him to submit opponents. Moreno would be smart to lean on that to best Pantoja because the challenger prefers fighting on the feet. While both can strike, we do favor Pantoja there.
This might end up being the fight of the night with a lot of fireworks. To us, it feels like a toss-up fight but Moreno is our pick. It seems like Moreno gets better every time out so we expect that to continue in this one.
Robert Whittaker vs. Dricus Du Plessis Betting Pick
A title shot against middleweight champion Israel Adesnya awaits the winner of this one. For Whittaker, he’s been defeated twice already by Adesanya, albeit the second one was pretty close. Du Plessis, on the other hand, has called out Izzy multiple times in hopes of setting up an all-Africa dream match. Bookies have marked Whittaker as a clear-cut favorite here at -410, which again forces us into the Whittaker-Du Plessis over/under bet instead.
Du Plessis is a perfect 5-0 since entering the UFC, but Whittaker is on a completely different level than those previous opponents. There’s a strong case that Whittaker is the third-best middleweight in UFC history after Anderson Silva and Adesanya. Our money says Whittaker takes Du Plessis to school in this one with a decision win. This fight has over written all over it.
How To Bet On UFC 290?
There are 13 different UFC 290 fights to bet on. 13! To get a one-stop shop for betting UFC, hit one of the trusty bookmakers listed below. Moneylines, over/unders, props — every type of bet you can think of will be available at these sites.
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