The lead-up to UFC 275 on Saturday, June 12 is currently living up to the names on the main card. Five integral matches are on the board, and you better believe we have UFC 275 picks for them all—including the highly anticipated showdown between Jiri Prochazka and Glover Teixeira.
Like always, let's begin by taking a look at the latest betting odds for the UFC:
Please continue double-checking these odds on UFC before committing to any concrete predictions. All UFC betting lines are subject to shift right up until the opening bell, and all of our UFC 275 betting odds are accurate as of Wednesday, June 8, giving the sportsbook operators plenty of time to make adjustments.
Please also consider journeying through our extensive reviews of the top online sportsbooks. Within these lies all the information you need to spot the best UFC betting sites in 2022. We also recommend checking out our list of the best 2022 UFC betting apps. Most of these operators tend to run highly lucrative specials in advance of major events like UFC 275. You'd be wise to take advantage them.
Now, let's get to our best bets to win at UFC 275.
Prochazka Isn't a Lock to Beat Teixeira
Jiri Prochazka's vertical speed deserves a ton of attention. He is landing more than seven significant strikes per minute, which is nearly double that of Glover Teixeira. Prochazka also happens to be landing his strike attempts at a slightly higher clip—and more than half the time overall.
Still, the former's fighting style can too often be one dimensional. He doesn't have a strong wrestling arsenal of which to speak, and the speed at which he tries to land blows opens his upper body to combinations from his opponent. Prochazka is actually absorbing around six significant strikes per minute, which removes some of the luster from the 7.19 he's landing on his own accord.
So while Teixeira may not operate as quickly, he does have the chops to grind matches down to a slog. He is a strong grappler and does a great job bringing opponents down to the mat, and he is much better at warding off both strike and takedown attempts than his opponent.
Don't be surprised when this showdown goes to a decision. The warring styles of Prochazka and Teixeira lend themselves to a certain deadlock. In the end, though, we expect the more even-keeled and comprehensive approach of Teixeira to win out—despite what oddsmakers currently think.
OSB Prediction: Glover Teixeira (+164)
Talia Santos has No Shot vs. Valentina Shevchenko at UFC 275
This may be the easiest decision of UFC 275.
Valentina Shevchenk isn't nicknamed "Bullet" for nothing. She operates at warp speed, without compromising her efficiency. And that heightened pace at which he fights isn't exclusive to strike attempts. She will come at you in the blink of an eye with leg kicks and wrestling moves.
Oddsmakers have decided that Talia Santos, despite being a strong striker and defender, doesn't stand a chance versus Shevchenko. And we're inclined to agree. Savvy defense means only so much when you stand to be overwhelmed in so many offensive areas.
OSB Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko (-770)
Zhang Weili has Clear Edge Over Joanna Jedrzejczyk
Joanna Jedrzejczyk would look a lot more enticing in this matchup if she had any wrestling game of which to speak. The 6.30 significant strikes she's landing per minute are serious business, but they come paired with just 0.28 successful takedowns, and it's going to take more dynamism than that to best Zhang Weili.
For starters, Weili is a skilled striker herself. He's connecting on 5.47 significant strike attempts per minute. But she's also averaging 1.75 takedowns, all while registering as a better defender on both opponent strike and takedown attempts.
OSB Prediction: Zhang Weili (-174)
Manel Kape Could Be Heavier UFC 275 Favorite Against Rogerio Bontorin
Go ahead and jump on Manel Kape while he's still a -250. We have a feeling that number will continue to move in a less lucrative direction.
To be sure, Rogeior Bontorin has Kape beat on the wrestling front. He is a tactician when it comes to wrapping up opponents and is landing nearly three successful takedowns each match, giving him plenty of opportunities to incite submission. Kape does not have either element in his repertoire—not in extensive supply anyway.
Still, Bontori has proven to be a wild card striker. He is oftentimes erratic and slow, which is an extremely combustible combination. Contrast this with the power and efficiency Kape is able to generate when striking from a variety of different stances, and this feels like a situation in which he should be a -350 or greater favorite.
OSB Prediction: Manel Kape (-250)
Jack Della Maddalena May TKO Ramazan Emeev
Jack Della Maddalena announced to the world that he needed to be taken seriously when he knocked out Francis Ngannouat UFC 270, and we don't expect him to vacate his scorching-hot streak against Ramazan Emeev.
If we needed to describe Maddalena in one word, it would be "relentless." He just keeps coming. The stamina he has despite constantly being on the offensive is genuinely absurd. Maddalena is landing 8.40 significant strikes per minute at a roughly 50 percent clip, and a large percentage of his career victories have come as knockouts.
That doesn't bode well for Emeev, who struggles within matchups that mandate he win as a striker rather than wrestler. This is a fight we could see ending in two minutes or less.
OSB Prediction: Jack Della Meddalena (-166)
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