UFC 257 Picks: McGregor vs Poirier

At long last, after years of waiting, UFC fans will finally get to see Conor McGregor square off again versus Dustin Poirier. The two, who last met each other in 2014, will go head-to-head at UFC 257, on what is now the only fight on the card that is being listed by oddsmakers.

Forecasting this rematch can be difficult. Both fighters have changed a lot over the past six years. Still, we've managed to piece together UFC 257 picks that we're confident in by taking into account all the factors under the sun—and then some. First, though, let's take a look at the latest McGregor-Poirier odds, courtesy of both Bovada and BetOnline.

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Expect these UFC 257 odds to change between now and the opening bell, as there is roughly one month to go until the fight at this writing. For the most part, though, there should be no wild swings unless one of the fighters suffers in injury. Now, let's get to everything you need to know about Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier, Part 2.

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McGregor vs. Poirier Betting Breakdown

Let's have a look at McGregor vs Poirier betting options.

How McGregor-Poirier Part 1 Went Down

Back in 2014, McGregor and Poirier faced each other in the featherweight division. At the time, McGregor was near the peak of his powers and considered the best trash-talker UFC had to offer. Poirier, meanwhile, was more of an up-and-comer, looking to make a name for himself against one of UFC's biggest names.

The lead-in to the fight was among the tensest in recent memory. McGregor, obviously, was spearheading the verbal jabs. And though most thought he would eat some of his words by having so survived a lengthy, tightly contested bout, he wound up winning the whole thing in the first round.

It happened so quickly. McGregor worked his left hand and implemented a bunch of spinning wheel kicks. Poirier looked caught off guard from the beginning. He eventually started trying to counter McGregor's offense with offense of his home, attempting to hit him with a bunch of longer-distance jabs.

This didn't work out. In fact, it was what McGregor had been waiting for. When Poirier's body was open and susceptible during one of his single jab attempts, McGregor secured the victory by hitting him with the right jab followed immediately by the left look.

Factors to Keep in Mind for McGregor-Poirier Part 2

We cannot emphasize this is enough: These are not the same fighters you saw in 2014.

For starters, McGregor has since retired and then unretired. He took close to two years off in 2016, before returning to the octagon in 2018 to face >Khabib Nurmagomedov>. He ended up losing that fight by submission in just slightly over three minutes.

Roughly another two years passed, and McGregor then unretired yet again to wage battle with Donald Cerrone. This time, things ended quite differently. The fight, which was fought at the welterweight level, ended in 40 seconds, with McGregor unloading a quick series of blows onto Cerrone before being ruled the victor by TKO.

That matchup took place in January 2020. That makes UFC 257, which is scheduled for January 23, roughly one year to the day since McGregor's last fight. It is a quicker turnaround than he's been used to over the past half-decade or so, but his camp has been bragging about his excellent conditioning.

Meanwhile, Poirier has gone on to become one of the UFC's marquee draws since his loss to McGregor. He has racked up an impressive record of 10-2-1 during this six-year span, over which time he's also established himself as one of the most lethal strikers alive.

McGregor-Poirier Predictions

Many people thought McGregor's time away from the octagon would hurt him as he tries to ramp his career back up. And while that may have been true in his first fight back, he showed little signs of lacking the aggression and motor in his win over Cerrone.

True, we have yet to see what he looks like in a longer battle. The only two matchups he's participated in since 2016 have lasted a total of 3:43—under four minutes. Given the stamina Poirier has displayed over the past couple of years, it stands to reason that a longer showdown will wind up favoring him.

And yet, we can't help but worry that Poirier's fast and furious striking style has worked against him in certain instances. He fell to Nurmadgomedov by knockout back in 2019, because he allowed too many openings while attempting to stay on offense.

McGregor is yet another opponent who won't let those slips get by. What's more, after beating Cerrone himself, he may have more on the line at UFC 257. If he wins this fight, he is considered to be next in line for a lightweight title opportunity. That has no doubt factored into his training and stylistic mindset; he is so close to sniffing the mountaintop yet again.

For Poirier to have an adequate shot at this one, he'll need to brush up on his defense so he can wear McGregor down in the earlier portion of the fight. That's not enough of a roadmap for us to bet on him, but it's something. In the meantime, if you can pick up McGregor for -250 value or better, we would pounce. BetOnline and Bovada are both offering -240, and it feels like that line will invariably move closer to -275 or -300.

OSB Prediction: Conor McGregor by decision (-240)

Conor McGregor To beat Dustin Poirier