UFC returns to the Apex this weekend — but it’s not your usual rag-tag fight card. No, this one is loaded with good fights AND solid betting opportunities, especially in the undercard. You’re going to want to keep reading to get our three best undercard bets for UFC Fight Night!
- What: UFC Fight Night
- Where: Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada
- When: Saturday, July 15
Asu Almabayev vs. Jose Johnson Betting Pick
Almabayev is a name to look out for in the UFC flyweight rankings. He’s already No. 15 in the division and is a big favorite to win here at -550 moneyline. We’re not in love with that bet, therefore, we’re jumping on the Almabayev-Johnson over/under instead. Here’s how the bet is being pegged at UFC's best betting sites:
We suppose Almabayev is a “prospect.” He’s only fought twice in the UFC, both wins, but at the same time, he’s 30 years old. Almabayev owns a career record of 19-2 so he isn’t this wide-eyed newbie by any means. Regardless, Almabayev is a dominant wrestler. His takedown ability makes him a sneaky-good striker too.
Johnson is an interesting opponent. He’s the polar opposite of Almabayev and that starts with his size. Get this, Johnson is a tall flyweight at six feet tall and Almabayev is only 5-foot-4. Moreover, Johnson is a Muy Thai-based striker. His grappling is ok, but not great by any means.
Here's the difference-maker in this fight though: Johnson is really, really bad at defending the takedown. His takedown defense is an atrocious 36 percent. Almabayev, despite the size disadvantage, should have zero issues wrestling Johnson down and keeping him down. We think this mismatch leads to an early decision, hence why our money is firmly on the under bet.
Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Joshua Van Betting Pick
Here’s another flyweight bout and this one is expected to be far more competitive. Have a look at the betting odds below where Ulanbekov is a comfy, but not heavy favorite over Van:
Opposites collide in this fight. Ulanbekov is from Dagestan so you already know how he fights — wrestling and more wrestling. In the UFC, he’s gone 3-1 with 12 takedowns and two finishes. Ulanbekov’s takedown defense isn’t the best though, but that matters little in this fight.
That’s because Van is striking-heavy. Amazingly, Van averages nine strikes a minute. Don’t think that’s in just one UFC fight either. This is actually going to be fight No. 5 in the promotion — all at the age of 22. This kid has a bright future if he keeps at this torrid pace.
We really like Van as an underdog here. The odds are too good to pass up in what we think is a 50-50 fight. There are paths to victory for each — Ulanbekov if it goes to the ground and Van if it stays standing up. But Van’s 78-percent takedown defense is enough for us to say he can gut this win out. Take the underdog at plus-money!
Carli Judice vs. Gabriella Fernandes Betting Pick
We’re staying in the flyweight division for a third time, however, this is a lady's fight. Betting odds-wise, this is expected to be one of the closest fights of the night. Here’s the current moneyline odds for Judice and Fernandes:
Fernandes is the betting favorite, but she’s on a downslide. The past two times we’ve seen her in the UFC, Fernandes lost by unanimous decision. Still, Fernandes has real stopping power— both on the feet and on the ground. Part of that is because she’s a thick flyweight. However, we haven’t seen her be active enough to really make those physical advantages count. To us, Fernandes feels gun-shy.
Judice is a youngster. Only 25 years old and 3-1 over her career — though the loss came last time out on the Contender’s Series. She is the opposite of Fernandes, starting with her activity level. Judice is NOT afraid to let her hands go in the slightest, mostly because that’s all she has. There’s no ground game to speak of so it’s fists or nothing.
We think Judice is a worthy play here. Again, it comes down to the activity. Fernandes is more skilled, but what good does that do when you’re not aggressive? We’re predicting a Judice KO finish in this one.
How To Bet On UFC Fight Night?
There are over a hundred UFC Fight Night bets this weekend. That’s when you factor in betting props for each of the over dozen bouts. If you want a one-stop shop to all the wagers, hit one of the bookmakers below (all rated high in our latest sportsbook reviews). We love the three betting opportunities above, but trust us, there are even more ways to make money off this card.
Speaking of money, you want some for free? Then you’ll want to leverage a promotional bonus for free play. Every bookie offers a bonus of some kind, but the five below offer some of the best deals around. Pick one offer and boom, you’ll be betting for free this weekend. Reference the table for full details:
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