Top to bottom, UFC 299 might be a better card than UFC — particularly if you’re betting. We’ve found tons of betting value in the UFC 299 undercard, away from the featured fights. Want three of those bets? Keep reading cause we’re giving out free advice right here!
- What: UFC 299
- Where: Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida
- When: Saturday, March 9
Petr Yan vs. Song Yadong Betting Pick
This fight is going to open the UFC 299 main card, and it’s a doozy — both from an entertainment AND betting standpoint. Just take a look at the current Yan-Yadong betting odds. The best UFC betting sites have this one near even on the moneyline:
Yan is the marginal betting favorite. He is the more proven commodity of the two as a former bantamweight champion. However, he’s fallen on hard times, losing four of the last five. But to be fair, the Russian has lost to all of the division’s top three fighters — Aljo Sterling (twice, albeit one was by disqualification), Merab Dvalishvili, and Sean O’Malley (most think Yan got robbed of a win here). He’s only 31 years old, but that recent record is enough to wonder if he’s over the hill.
Yadong is not over the hill, he’s barely running up the hill at blazing speed. This 26-year-old fights fast as hell, and that speed means his strikes land hard too. Yadong has won five of his last six, but still, this feels like a prove-it fight for the Chinese fighter. Besides Ricky Simon, none of those last five victories came against ranked fighters.
This fight will almost surely be on the feet and striking. Both are quite lethal at it. Yan averages 5.03 strikes per minute, while Yadong is at 4.38. Perhaps the X-factor is which fighter can just avoid the bigger, fight-changing blow?
When looking at the tape, Yadong is more hit-able. His aggressive style comes at a cost — leaving himself open for a precision puncher like Yan. Moreover, Yadong has been finished twice by KO over his career and Yan never has. For this reason, we’re taking Yan. We do not believe he’s lost a step in the octagon, just lost to better fighters in Sterling and Merab. We say take Yan with confidence here.
Curtis Blaydes vs. Jailton Almeida Betting Pick
This heavyweight clash will headline the preliminary card. Here again, the odds are at near pick ‘em — Blaydes is -115 and Almeida is at -105. Personally, we’re more interested in betting the Blaydes-Almeida over/under. Here’s how it’s being pegged:
We’ll be honest, we don’t know who will win this fight, hence why we dodged the moneyline wager entirely. We see paths for victory for both.
First of all, there’s Almeida, who’s one of the best finishers in the entire promotion. The Brazilian has won all seven of his UFC bouts, but more impressively, six of those ended early. Only Derrick Lewis, the most recent opponent, was able to get a decision from Almeida. This guy can swing for the fences on the feet or get a chokehold on the ground — the danger levels are high everywhere.
Blaydes, though, has been a fixture in the heavyweight division for years now. On the ground, we do favor Blaydes, who is an excellent wrestler. He’s gotten away from that as of late, which is head-scratching, but Blaydes is averaging almost six takedowns per fight in the UFC so that skill set should be respected.
We think the under is the best bet to take. If Almeida prevails, which we do favor slightly, you have to believe it’s by an early finish. But at the same time, that aggressive approach from Almeida could leave him exposed to a flash knockdown of his own. Either way, the judges won’t be allowed to decide this one so take the under.
Kyler Phillips vs. Pedro Munhoz Betting Pick
This card is so deep that a UFC veteran like Munhoz is deep in the undercard. Munhoz is a big betting underdog against Phillips though, just have a look-see at these current moneyline odds:
The last time we saw Munhoz, he barely lost to Chito Vera, who is fighting for a championship in the main event of 299. And get this, many people believe he did enough to win. But despite that, Munhoz is buried in this card and is a substantial underdog. We don’t see the rationale.
Yes, Munhoz is nine years older than Phillips, but he’s the way more skilled fighter. He’s also fought way higher caliber completion — and done well in those fights. As you can guess, our money is going to Munhoz. Those odds just don’t feel right to us at all and we’re laying a good-sized bet on it to take advantage.
How To Bet On UFC 299?
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