Don’t overlook the prop betting market for the upcoming UFC Fight Night card. Props have better betting value for the night’s top three fights. If you stick with us and keep reading, we’ll lay out our three favorite picks of the card!
- What: UFC Fight Night
- When: Saturday, October 28
- Where: Sao Paolo, Brazil
Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis Prop Betting Pick
UFC can’t seem to keep a main event in order. UFC 294 required a late switcharoo and Dana White just announced a change for UFC 295 in November. The same happened here as Curtis Blaydes was originally scheduled to go against Almeida but had to drop. Now we get UFC fan favorite Lewis in the main-event spot. The best way to bet on Almeida vs. Lewis is the exact finish outcome. Odds aren't out yet, but when are, these will be your list of betting options:
| Outcome |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Almeida by Decision | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| Almeida by KO | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| Almeida by Submission | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| Lewis by Decision | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| Lewis by KO | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| Lewis by Submission | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| Draw | TBD | TBD | TBD |
This prop actually preserves some betting value because Almeida is a convincing -400 favorite on the moneyline. Unless you got Lewis scoring the upset, it’s best to skip those types of lopsided lines. And spoiler, we don’t think Lewis is winning. Yes, the threat of the KO is always there with Lewis, but he usually underperforms against top competition, and that’s exactly what Almeida is.
The 19-2 Almeida could be in line for a heavyweight title fight in the near future. He’s won 15 fights in a row, and most in dominating fashion. Almeida, being from Brazil, is the usual grappler you’d expect — tough and relentless. This has made early finishes a habit in his career. Only once has Almeida even fought into the third round, believe it or not.
Twelve of Almeida’s finishes have been via submission with the other seven being courtesy of a knockout — so he’s capable of both. You really have to bet one or the other in this wager.
Our money is going on the Almeida KO outcome. Here's why: Lewis knows the only way he can win this fight is by going head-hunting. The con of such an aggressive style is it can leave you vulnerable to being KO’d right back. Our prediction is that happens and Almeida shows off in front of the home fans.
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Nicolas Dalby Prop Betting Pick
The go-the-distance prop in Bonfim vs. Dalby is a fun one. Fun because there are two trends that go in completely opposite directions in this fight, as we'll explain. It'll a simple yes or not bet at top UFC betting sites when it comes to this prop:
Let’s begin with trend one as it relates to Bonfim. The 26-year-old is 15-0 in his career. With that mark, you just have to know he’s the betting favorite in this one — he is at -500 on the moneyline. But just as impressive, Bonfim has finished his opponent in all 15 career fights. Sheesh!
Bonfim’s biggest strength is jiu-jitsu. He’s Brazilian so go figure, right? Twelve of those 15 wins have been on the ground via submission. However, he does have some striking ability. Don’t think he’s a one-trick point like many other grapplers.
Now here’s where things get interesting with the second trend as it pertains to Dalby, a 22-4 fighter. Amazingly, Dalby has never been stopped. Never! Honestly, that streak might be more impressive than Bonfim’s stoppage streak cause Dalby has fought more and against tougher opponents.
So what’s the bet to make? You know, we’re giving Dalby the benefit of the doubt. He’s been in the UFC since 2019 and has only been beaten once in seven times. We’re not saying Dalby will score the upset, but we’re confident he can hang for the full three rounds. Take the yes on this prop!
Don’Tale Mayes vs. Rodrigo Nascimento Betting Pick
Of the three fights covered so far, this one is the most competitive odds-wise. Nascimento is the moneyline favorite, but not by a massive margin. The competitiveness of this Mayes-Nascimento fight leads us to wager on the round betting — who wins and what round. The betting options (when live) will look something like this:
| Outcome | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nascimento in Round 1 | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| Nascimento in Round 2 | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| Nascimento in Round 3 | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| Nascimento by Points | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| Mayes in Round 1 | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| Mayes in Round 2 | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| Mayes in Round 3 | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| Mayes by Points | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| Draw | TBD | TBD | TBD |
We have to mention this is not the first time these heavyweights have thrown down. Their first match was back in 2020 which ended in a second-round submission for Nascimento. He’s gone 2-1-1 since then.
Mayes has gone 3-1-1 since then. The thing about Mayes is he’s a prototypical heavyweight who loves throwing hands. He’ll have the power advantage in this one, but Nascimento will own the skill advantage. Nascimento is another Brazilian that prefers to grapple and stay on the ground.
Our money says Nascimento wins the rematch too. Matter of fact, we’re banking on the same exact outcome — a tap out in the second. So jump on that Nascimento second-round line at these solid odds!
How To Bet On UFC Fight?
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