There’s a ton of UFC 295 betting opportunities — and we mean a ton. But which bets are most worth your money? We think we know. Keep on reading to get our three favorite UFC 295 picks.
- What: UFC 295
- Where: Madison Square Garden
- When: Saturday, November 11
Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira Betting Pick
This is the brand-new main event after Jones Jones vs. Stipe Miocic was canceled. This showdown is for the vacant light heavyweight title — which was vacated when Prochazka injured himself. His challenger is Pereira, who’s fighting in the division for only the second time. Right now, the Prochazka vs. Pereira odds are pretty close. Here’s how the top UFC betting sites have it pegged:
This should be a strike fest through and through as both are very dangerous on the feet — with little grappling ability. Pereira, of course, was a world-class kickboxer before entering MMA and the UFC. He’s a KO waiting to happen, but so is Prochazka. In 29 career wins for the former champion, Prochazka won 25 by KO. He has a more Muy Thai style, which should be a fun contrast to Pereira’s classic kickboxing style.
Here’s what’s top of mind for us in this one: how will Prochazka look after almost a year and a half off from fighting? He hasn’t fought since beating Glover Texeira in a thrilling June 2022 bout. Prochazka injured his shoulder in what doctors and Dana White are calling one of the worst shoulder injuries in UFC history. If that’s true, you’d think that would have an effect on him, no?
We sense this is a good matchup for Pereira. His weakness, being as he’s new to MMA still, is grappling and more specifically, defending the takedown. Prochazka doesn’t really lean on this so that threat is minimal. If so, that means Pereira can do what he does best — go head-hunting. Prochazka is prone to getting tagged, which is how Texeira landed 98-of-145 significant strikes on him last time out.
We have a strong feeling Pereira will stop Prochazka early. The opportunities will present themselves and we think Pereira seizes them. With a win, making him a two-division champ in UFC, Pereira would have a strong case as one of the best combat sports athletes of the century given his GLORY accomplishments. Bank on Pereira extending his legacy on the main event.
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall Betting Pick
Jones injured his pec muscle, which means we need an intern heavyweight champion. That’s what this Pavlovich-Aspinall fight is about. Right now, the moneyline odds are practically at pick ‘em. We’re more inclined to take the Aspinall vs. Pavlovich over/under odds instead. Here’s how they shake out:
As you can see, the under 1.5 rounds is the runaway favorite to hit. We can see that given the track record of each man. On one hand, you have the best heavyweight boxer in the UFC in Pavlovich. His hand speed and power are truly something to marvel at, hence why 15 of 18 carer wins have been by KO. Pavlovich has also finished eight straight opponents in round one. This man is as dangerous as they come, plain and simple.
Aspinall has a similar finish ability. Get this, none of his 13 wins have ever been by decision. Zero! However, Aspinall is a far more balanced fighter than Pavlovich. He’s not as lethal striking, but Aspinall can at least grapple. Three of his finishes have been way off submission.
It’s this takedown and ground game ability of Aspinall that makes us pick the over. His game plan should be to take down Pavlovich early. Get him out on the ground and see what he’s made out of after the first round — remember Pavlovich’s cardio has never really been tested. We believe Aspinall can execute that plan, and if he does, this one has serious over potential. That makes it a worthy play, especially at these odds.
Jessica Andrade vs. Mackenzie Dern Betting Pick
In another main card bout, we have two top-10 women’s strawweights going at it. Here again, it’s a relatively close matchup odds-wise. Check out the Andrade vs. Dern moneyline odds below:
This bout is a styles clash as Andrade is a striker, averaging 6.7 strikes per minute. Dern isn’t a bad striker, but her strength is on the ground, and medaled in grappling events pre-UFC. Something’s got to give, right?
We side with Dern here. Not only is she younger, but she’s not in what appears to be decline. Andrade, a former UFC champ, has been finished in three consecutive fights. That’s a trend you have to fade so Dern gets our money here.
How To Bet On UFC 295?
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