Don’t even think about betting on the UFC’s upcoming card until you read this. It’s a classic Fight Night event at Apex and we’re giving you the three best UFC bets to make on the night. We’re confident our UFC betting advice will get you paid so stick around if you want to make some money.
- What: UFC Fight Night
- When: Saturday, May 20
- Where: Las Vegas, Nevada at UFC Apex
Mackenzie Dern vs. Angela Hill Betting Pick
A women’s strawweight matchup headlines the UFC Fight Nighy card. It was originally scheduled for last week in Charlotte, but was moved here to fill out the show better. Remember that detail because it’s critical to our Dern vs. Hill pick. But first, here’s where the odds stand at popular UFC betting sites:
If this fight would’ve been three rounds, as originally planned for Charlotte, we would say that Hill has the edge. She is the higher IQ fighter that can win on points. Though, now at 38 years old, there are serious question marks about whether she has the stamina to hang long enough for five rounds.
That’s troublesome against Dern, who is an absolute tank in the ring. Her endurance has always been a cut above the rest so a five-rounder favors her greatly. Not only that, but Dern is certainly the more dangerous fighter. She has an esteemed career in jiu-jitsu, which has helped her win by submission seven out of her 12 career wins. Dern is great on the ground, however, she’s not any good at actually taking down opponents. We mean, her takedown percentage is an abysmal 11 percent.
Hill is a much better stand-up fighter than Dern, but we do think she’ll fade as the fight wears on, which negates that advantage. The bet to make here is Dern. If she doesn’t get the early finish (which is plausible with her insane ground game), she could earn a decision due to her superior stamina.
Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Anthony Hernandez Betting Pick
The co-main event pits two under-30-old middleweights against one another. Here again, the odds aren’t completely lopsided but still, Hernandez is a comfortable betting favorite over Shahbazyan. Here’s how the odds shake out:
We’re not big on how Shahbazyan has fared as of late. Before beating Dalcha Lungiambula in December, he had lost three in a row. He’s 25 now so it’s not the trend you want out of a fighter that is mostly developed by now. Shahbazyan is primarily a stand-up fighter and a solid one at that with solid kicking and punching abilities.
But we sense that “Fluffy” Hernandez, as he’s called, is going to take him down plenty and often in this fight. Hernandez has an impressive takedown average of 6.49. He could do a better job at controlling his opponents on the ground, but getting a point for the takedown to begin with helps his chances of winning. Plus, Shahbazyan struggles to get off the ground himself so our money is on Hernandez here.
One last thing we’ll say here. Out of all the three bets we’re laying out today, this one is our most confident selection. That means you should either up the betting size on this one or stick this bet into a parlay. Personally, we prefer the latter since -200 odds aren’t all that valuable to load up on. But in a parlay, you’ll get an okay boost from a line like this.
Emily Ducote vs. Lupita Godinez
This match was thrown together last minute. Ducote was scheduled to fight, but not against Godinez. Because of that, this fight is at catchweight. The short notice hinders both fighters, which might explain why the Ducote-Godinez betting odds are so close:
Ducote is coming off a loss to the aforementioned Hill in December. It was fought almost entirely standing up, which is how Ducote likes it. She lands just above six strikes per minute but was outclassed by the more experienced Hill that night.
Godinez will not have similar striking success as Hill. She will go for the takedowns, but here’s the X-factor: Ducote is really, really good at defending the takedown. That should help her pull out the win against a less-prepared Godinez.
How To Bet On UFC Fight Night
We stuck our UFC Fight Night bets to the three headline bouts, but alas, the betting opportunities are ripe elsewhere. This next show has 13 different fights so you can do the math on how many wagers are available across moneylines, over/unders, props, and more. For all the UFC bet types on this show, hit one of the bookmakers listed underneath.
We get it, the online bookie marketplace is crowded. However, the five sites listed below are most worth your time and money. In our newest sportsbook reviews, the featured bookmakers underneath rated the highest of the bunch. Give those reviews a read to help you pick the best site to bet on UFC.
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