Need help betting on the next UFC Fight Night card? No sweat, we got you covered right here. After analyzing the fight card, weāve settled on three UFC bets to take for Saturday. Keep reading to get our free picks!
- What: UFC Fight Night
- When: Saturday, September 23
- Where: UFC Apex in Las Vegas
Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot Betting Pick
What a main event this one will be between two lightweights ranked top-10 in the division and not all that used to losing. A quick look at the best UFC betting sites and youāll see the Fiziev vs. Gamrot moneyline is uber close. Still, Fiziev is a marginal favorite, as seen below:
This is your classic clash of styles fight. The favorite, Fiziev, is one of the best strikers at lightweight ā which is saying something. He is coming off a loss to Justin Gaethje but it was a razor-close defeat (some might even argue Fiziev did enough to win). Still, Fiziev stood toe to toe with one of the UFCās heaviest hitters in Gaethje and never flinched. He truly has excellent Muy Thai and can pick apart most opponents standing up.
Gamrot is a wrestler through and through. Heās averaging 4.54 takedowns per fight. Aside from Beneil Dariush, Gamrot is the finest wrestler in the division. While Fiziev has no takedown offense (0.31 average), he is a surprisingly good defender. He sniffs out takedowns at a 90 percent rate.
We should say though, Gamrot is a āserviceableā stand-up fighter. He wonāt be completely outmatched on the feet by Fiziev. Gamrot does have a tendency to get knocked down, but heās never been finished either. His only two career losses have all been by decision.
Five rounds also has to be accounted for. On one hand, thatās 10 extra minutes for Fiziev to inflict damage on the feet. But the other perspective is that Gamrot could also wear our Fiziev if heās to take him down. When itās a fight this close between a wrestler and a striker, we almost always pick the wrestler. The style has repeatedly proven itself as THE X-factor in fights so weāll ride with Gamrot in this one.
Bryce Mitchell vs. Dan Ige Betting Pick
Honestly, a lot of what we said about the main event also applies to the semi-main event featuring a pair of featherweights. Mitchell is a tried-and-true wrestler, whereas Ige is a kickboxing-based striker. This time, itās the wrestler thatās favored to win as Mitchell is a comfortable -210 on the moneyline:
Alright, weāre going to contradict what we said in the previous pick, and this time, choose the striker to win. Hereās why weāre confident in Ige to get the upset: heās experienced enough to hold off Mitchellās takedowns. The 32-year-old has been in the octagon with a way higher caliber of opponents than Mitchell ā and itās not even close.
Plus, we have questions about Mitchell after his first career loss to Ilia Topuria. It wasnāt competitive in the slightest and Mitchell went only 1-of-9 on takedowns. Mitchell has zero stand-up game to fall back on too so we fully expect Ige to be able to defend against the leg shooting Mitchell inevitably goes for on Saturday. Bank on Ige to score the upset win here.
Marina Rodriguez vs. Michelle Waterson
After betting two straight moneylines, weāre focusing on the Rodriguez-Waterson over/under instead. Hereās how oddsmakers have the line pegged:
Rodriguez is a convincing favorite to win the fight at almost -300 odds. It certainly makes sense when comparing records as Rodriguez is 16-3 to Watersonās 18-11. However, Rodriguez has lost two fights in a row and her once-booming career feels like itās at a crossroads.
Waterson, on the other hand, is a grizzled veteran. Sheās fought some of the best womenās fighters of all time ā Carla Esparza, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, and Rose Namajunas, just to name a few. She lost all three, but still, Waterson has been through the fire.
To us, this fight has more stoppage potential than the odds are letting on. Rodriguez is a solid boxer. Sheās already beaten Waterson once back in 2021, albeit by decision. If anything, that fight has revealed Waterson tendencies ā and vice-versa too. Half of Watersonās 18 career wins have come via submission so sheās fully capable of ending it early too. Weād throw money on the under if we were you.
How To Bet On UFC Fight Night?
The UFC Fight Night card is stacked with betting opportunitiesā more so than the three we covered above. To get all UFC Fight Night betting in one spot, hit one of the bookmakers listed below. Moneylines, over/unders, props, and any other type of bet you can think of will be available for betting at these very sites listed.
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