Don't even think about betting on UFC Fight Night this Saturday until you read this. We've analyzed the card's top three fights and hand-picked our best bets for UFC Fight Night. These picks are all yours if you keep on reading!
What: UFC Fight Night
Where: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada
When: Saturday, March 16
Marcin Tybura vs. Tai Tuivasa Betting Pick
We have a pick ‘em fight in the main event, which doesn’t come all that often. We’re jumping on that Tuivasa-Tybura moneyline before those lines changes, but as it stands, here’s how it shakes out at top UFC betting sites:
Tuivasa has long been a UFC fan favorite for more reasons than one. First, he’s an exciting fighter. This is your typical heavyweight that was a KO machine. Tuivasa owns 14 career wins and all but one were by way of a knockout. Moreover, fans latched onto Tuivasa for his ability to chug beer from a shoe. Yes, a shoe. This is called a “shoey” by the way.
However, his career is in a clear decline. He’s lost three fights in a row against the top heavyweights in the division — Ciryl Gane, Sergei Pavlovich, and Alexander Volkov. Worse, Tuivasa was stopped early in all three bouts — twice by KO and another via submission. He’s only 31 years old but it’s fair to wonder if Tuivasa’s chin is beginning to disappear. That’s a big issue for his head-hunting fight style.
The thing is Tybura isn’t that much of a heavy-handed hitter. Only nine of 24 career wins came by KO. He’s also 38 years old so not exactly in his biological prime. But what Tybura does have is high-level grappling for a heavyweight. He uses the threat of a takedown to set up his striking too.
To us, the X-factor of this fight is whether Tuivasa can defend the takedown. History says probably not. His takedown defense is a meager 54 percent. That’s not going to do in this main event. Tybura is our betting pick, and we predict he will win via decision.
Bryan Battle vs. Ange Loosa Betting Pick
Is Bryan Battle one of the best fight names of all time? We sure think so and his fight style backs up that name cause Battle is aggressive as can be. Perhaps that why Battle is the betting favorite over Loosa here. Here’s the current Battle-Loosa odds:
When it comes to striking, this fight is pretty even though Loosa might have a slight advantage. On average, Loosa lands more strikers per minute (6.32) than Battle (4.52). More than anything else, Loosa is going to have a higher output. He’s extremely durable and uses that to his advantage with a barrage of strikes and leg kicks.
Neither fighter is a big finisher. Amazingly, Loosa hasn’t finished an opponent since 2016 so that tells you what you need to know about his danger levels. Battle isn’t nearly as bad as he’s won each of his last three bouts early. Still, Battle is more dangerous on the ground than standing up. Half of his 10 wins have come by submission.
We have a sneaking suspicion that Loosa is going to score the upset. Battle is going to need to win this fight on the ground, and we’re not confident he can. His takedown defense is only 45 percent and Battle only averages 0.94 takedowns per fight. Here again, that’s inferior to Loosa’s 100-percent takedown defense and 2.25 takedown average. Therefore, we’re taking Loosa’s plus-money odds here.
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Ovince St. Preux Betting Pick
There’s zero reason to bet the moneyline on this one. Zero. That’s because Nzechukwu is a whopping -665 favorite to win. This is the most lopsided line of the whole card. Instead, we’re finding value in betting the Nzechukwu and St. Preux over/under. Here’s how that line is being pegged:
There’s absolutely no way we see St. Preux even putting up a fight in this one, little less winning. The light heavyweight is now 40 years old and way, way past his prime. We mean, his career record is 16-17 so the prime he did have wasn’t all that good to begin with. Nzechukwu is nine years younger and bigger so the betting line is very justified.
Question is, how exactly does Nzechukwu win? Stoppage is the most likely outcome. Nzechukwu is a finisher and his recent record backs that up. His previous five wins came early. In fact, the last time Nzechukwu won by decision was way back in 2019.
Therefore, we’re putting our money on the under. At this age, St. Preux’s chin is a goner and that’s why he’s been KO’d in each of his last three losses. We’d slam that under bet if we were you.
How To Bet On UFC Fight Night?
Now that you know who to bet on at UFC Fight Night, you need to actually lock these wagers in. You can easily do so at any one of the bookmakers listed underneath. These sites offer all types of bets for this show beyond the three we covered. The card has over a dozen fights so variety is the name of the game.
Best of all, there are big-money promotional bonuses to take advantage of. These bonuses pay out hundreds to thousands of dollars in free play — money to bankroll your UFC betting. Some of our favorite bonuses are listed in the table below. Pick one and boom, you’re gambling with “house money” this weekend!
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