Best UFC 301 Bets: Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg Picks

Want to make money betting UFC 301? Of course, you do. Welp, here’s how — taking our advice on the three best UFC 301 bets of the weekend. We’re super confident in these plays so keep reading to get our free advice!

What: UFC 301
When: Saturday, May 4
Where: Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg Betting Pick

A flyweight title match headlines UFC 301. The reigning champion and Brazilian native, Pantoja, is the favorite to win at almost -200 moneyline odds. We see more betting value in taking the Pantoja-Erceg over/under though. Here are those odds across the best UFC betting sites:

Outcome
Over 3.5 Rounds	-145	-145	-145
Under 3.5 Rounds	+115	+115	+115

There’s a lot of chatter about Erceg being undeserving of a title shot in the first place. It certainly feels warranted given Erceg is ranked No. 10 in the division and only has three UFC fights — albeit all wins against non-ranked fighters. Still, Pantoja has pretty much beaten the top contenders at flyweight, and those who he hasn’t are either injured or coming off losses.

Those weird circumstances have helped Erceg leapfrog others into this main-event spot, but it’s not like he’s a bad fighter. Erceg is a real good grappler and historically, Pantoja has struggled to beat fighters with a strong ground game. But is Erceg better at Pantoja at grappling to continue that trend? We say probably not.

We’ve never seen Erceg face top-flight connection, but Pantoja certainly has. It’s crystal clear that the champion is legit and well-rounded. He can bring forward pressure with strikes, but his specialty is the Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Pantoja should win here, but it won’t be a lopsided victory either. We’re confident Erceg can hang and push this the full five rounds. If so, the over bet is hitting!

Over 3.5 rounds in Erceg vs. Pantoja fight at UFC 301

-145

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Jonathan Martinez vs. Jose Aldo Betting Pick

This is likely the bigger attraction right — for fans in attendance and bettors at home. That’s because Aldo is making his UFC return, but in what capacity? Welp, Aldo is only a small underdog against Martinez despite a layoff from UFC. Here’s where the odds stand:

FIghter
Jonathan Martinez	-155	-155	-155
Jose Aldo	+130	+130	+130

So why is Adlo even fighting? That’s probably the question bettors should start with. Was the payday and allure of fighting at home too good that he had to unretire? Or does arguably the best featherweight in UFC history still have something to prove? We lean toward the former being more true. We mean, what does Also have to prove? With a five-year title reign as the first-ever featherweight champion, Aldo will forever be “goated.”

We just can’t picture Aldo “turning back the clock” come fight time. He’s listed as 37 years old, but many believe he’s actually older because his birth documents are wrong. That’s unknown but one thing is for sure, Aldo is old in fight years. This dude has been in some wars over his illustrious career and the punishment has taken a toll. He retired in 2022 from UFC but did do pro boxing while away — adding even more damage if anything else.

We’re laying a bet on Martinez here. The 36-year-old isn’t exactly spring chicken himself, but there are less questions marks about his age and recent fight activity. This is a fight that’ll likely come down to Martinez just having more energy than Aldo, rather than skill. In other words, Martinez wins by outworking the all-timer.

Jonathan Martinez to beat Jose Aldo at UFC 301

-155

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Paul Craig vs. Caio Borralho Betting Pick

For our third and last pick of the night, we’re jumping on the Craig-Borralho over/under odds. That’s because the moneyline is way too one-sided. As it stands, Borralho is -575 to win — the second-biggest favorite of UFC 301. There is little money to make off that, hence why we’re on the over/under, which is as follows:

Outcome
Over 1.5 Rounds	-200	-200	-200
Under 1.5 Rounds	+150	+150	+150

This is UFC bookmaking 101, pitting a hot prospect versus an aging name. The prospect, of course, is Borralho. Here’s a fighter that is 15-1-1 over his career and undefeated in the UFC (7-0). Yes, he’s Brazilian and yes, he’s an excellent grappler.

Then there’s Craig, filling the role of the grizzled veteran. He’s been fighting for the UFC since 2016 but is starting to get over the hill at age 36. He’s lost three of his last four fights and moved down to middleweight (he was previously at light heavyweight). In his heyday, Craig was a solid grappler too.

Due to those shared grappling styles, a submission seems likely. Personally, we’re betting a tap out happens early as Borralho steamrolls his opponent. He’ll have something to prove in front of a partisan crowd.

Under 1.5 rounds in Borralho vs. Craig fight at UFC 301

+150

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How To Bet On UFC 301?

Want to get a full list of UFC 301 bets? Head to one of the bookmakers listed below then. Every type of bet imaginable on this show — from props to moneylines to over/unders — can be had at any one of these sites. All five bookies you see listed are rated highest in our latest sportsbook reviews so you’re in good hands all the way around.