- What: UFC 304 Main Event
- Who: Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad 2
- Date: Saturday, July 27, 2024
- Location: Co-op Live in Manchester, England
- Time: Early Prelims (6:00 p.m. ET), Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET), Pay-Per-View Card (10:00 p.m. ET), Main Event (after Midnight ET)
- How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+) Prelims (ESPN), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)
Hey, UFC fans! UFC 304, takes place on July 27 at Co-op Live in Manchester, England. Yes, the main event of that ESPN+ streaming pay-per-view card, UFC welterweight champion Leon Edwards (Birmingham, England), goes up against American Belal Muhammad. Edwards seeks to defend his belt for a third time, while Muhammad gets a first crack at the title. It is time to toss in some background and some betting breakdowns for this exciting event.
Leon Edwards, the champion, (22-3-0-1) has not lost in his past 13 fights. He won the UFC welterweight title in August 2022 with a dramatic late-round knockout of Kamaru Usman. The performance was worthy of Knockout Of The Year. Since then, he has two title defenses to his name beating Usman again and Colby Covington.
Belal Muhammad (23-3-0-1) is on a double-digit roll himself. He comes in as the No. 2 fighter in the official UFC welterweight division rankings. Muhammad last fought in May 2023. He scored a decision win over contender Gilbert Burns.
Meeting number one ended early between Edwards and Muhammad. The 2021 bout was deemed a no-contest after an accidental eye pork early in Round 2 left Muhammad unable to continue. What are some of the best bets for the Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad rematch on this UFC 304 PPV card? Let us look at the best UFC betting online 2024 sites and where you can find the best odds on all the UFC fights.
UFC 304 Main Event: Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad 2 Betting Picks
UFC 304: Leon Edwards Betting Breakdown
When it comes to the Edwards vs Muhammad Picks, it needs to be noted how much the Englishman has grown over his UFC career - particularly since the last fight with Muhammad. Now, Edwards is always in the gym working on something. The 32-year-old looks more like he is in his 20's. He is a man who uses his 74-inch reach to full advantage. He can fight and grapple from a variety of positions. Edwards' defense has only improved through the years.
His loss to Kamaru Usman in 2015 left a bitter pill for him to swallow. Edwards joked then he will do anything and everything not to lose again. Sure enough, Edwards keeps evolving and has this ability to adjust on the fly to unexpected changes in bouts. His confidence is sky-high after defending his belt against Usman and Covington. Muhammad is also dangerous and Edwards will be very aware of what he is up against.
Fight one saw Edwards was a -270 betting favorite. At the time, Edwards was the No. 3 fighter in the official UFC welterweight rankings. He had a solid performance in Round 1 before the eye poke seconds into Round 2. Edwards filled holes in his defensive game. He features no glaring openings. Covington, for example, could not get Edwards down. He had two takedowns in 10 attempts and Edwards escaped quickly.
Edwards picks and chooses his spots to attack with power. His 70 percent defense rate on takedowns is solid but his ability to counter with kicks and punches is the best in his weight class by far. Now, this makes Edwards a very attractive bet.
UFC 304: Belal Muhammad Betting Picks
Belal Muhammad grew as a UFC fighter since the first bout as he trusts his emerging all-around game a little more. He tends fight a bit more upright lately. However, Muhammad knows what he is up against. Can he find a weakness or lapse in Edwards' defense? Muhammad may have to go back to his old wrestling/grappling days. The American has not attempted a takedown in his previous two fights. The Edwards vs Muhammad picks do wonder about this.
His takedown defense is an outstanding 93 percent but Edwards may not try that much. Remember, Edwards lands 1.25 takedowns per 15 minutes. This fight will be fought mostly upright and with power. Muhammad is going to have to catch the champion by surprise. Now, Muhammad was a +220 betting underdog when he faced Edwards the first time and he is +165 currently.
Muhammad lands 4.55 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 43 percent, and he absorbs 3.64 significant strikes per minute. The fighter may need to absorb a little with his slight two-inch reach disadvantage. Getting inside without getting caught will be vital if Muhammad wants to win a decision.
Best Bets: UFC 304 Main Event – Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad 2
When examining the Edwards vs Muhammad picks, the first thing we noticed was fight number one. If anything Edwards has only improved more. Yes, Muhammad's form has evolved but not at the level of Edwards. What we saw in the first 5:16 of bout one was the ability of the Englishman to control every aspect - from punching to defense to even fighting in the clench.
Leon Edwards adds more and more to his arsenal while Muhammad has gotten a bit more stagnant particularly in the past two bouts. Edwards shows the ability more to take out an opponent at any time. That is one of the key differences between the two fighters. Muhammad already feels like he needs to outlast Edwards. Meanwhile, Edwards knows he heavily wobbled Muhammad a few times. He can do it again and maybe finish the job.
The betting pick is for Leon Edwards to win by decision, but there is this shot that we have to take for a KO/TKO. After all, the number is a mere EVEN in early betting.
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