The UFC is setting up an ultra-busy card on their first fight night following UFC 266. More than 10 matchups are currently on the schedule, and most are extremely tantalizing. It should go without saying, then, that we've got betting picks for the UFC fight night taking place on October 2.
You can take a look at the latest UFC betting odds below, courtesy of the folks at BetOnline:
| Favorite |  | | Underdog |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago Santos | -300 | +250 | Johnny Walker |
| Kryzsztof Jotko | -160 | +140 | Misha Cirkunov |
| Casey O'Neill | -220 | +180 | Antonina Shevchenko |
| Jamie Mullarkey | -110 | -110 | Devonte Smith |
| Kevin Holland | -150 | +110 | Kyle Daukaus |
| Joe Solecki | -160 | +130 | Jared Gordon |
| Aspen Ladd | -200 | +160 | Macy Chiasson |
As usual, you will want to recheck these UFC odds at BetOnline and other top online sportsbooks. The lines will move prior to the opening bell.
October 2 UFC Fight Night Predictions
Many are looking forward to the fight night showdown between Thiago Santos and Johnny Walker, but there's much more to parse in this UFC betting slate. We're going to drop our picks for the seven—yes, seven—most important matchups on the card. Things will be moving fast, and there's no time to waste. Let's roll!
Thiago Santos (-300) vs. Johnny Walker (+250)
Sample size appears to be holding back Johnny Walker in this matchup. He doesn't have nearly as many fights under his belt as Thiago Santos.
That certainly matters. But it isn't everything. Santos has lost three consecutive fights while Walker is landing a ridiculous 70-plus percent of his significant strike attempts. It's slightly risky, but we're investing in the upset.
OSB Prediction: Johnny Walker (+250)
Krzysztof Jotko (-160) vs. Misha Cirkunov (+140)
Both Krzysztof Jotko and Misha Cirkunov are working off losses in their previous matches. Oddsmakers seem to be favoring Jotko based on a larger fight sample. However, we cannot say we're convinced.
Jotko is a special defender when it comes to deflecting strikes and evading takedowns but has a long way to go offensively. He's landing just 41 percent of his significant strikes per minute. Cirkunov, by comparison, is faster and more aggressive. We like his chances.
OSB Prediction: Misha Cirkunov (+140)
Casey O'Neill (-220) vs. Antonina Shevchenko (+180)
Casey O'Neill is putting her undefeated record on the line (7-0-0), and frankly, we're surprised she's not favored by more.
The 23-year-old O'Neill has taken UFC by storm with her aggressive style that has resulted in a handful of submissions and TKOs. She is landing more than 5.6 significant strikes per minute, and though her strike defense is shaky, she's so fast it almost doesn't matter.
All of which is bad news for Antonina Shevchenko.
OSB Prediction: Casey O'Neill (-220)
Jamie Mullarkey (-110) vs. Devonte Smith (-110)
Reconciling this line is tough. We don't believe it's a toss-up. It feels like Devonte Smith is going to take care of Jamie Mullarkey pretty handedly.
Not only is Smith the more accurate puncher, but he's impossibly difficult to bring down to the mat. The latter doesn't bode well for Mullarkey, who is an erratic striker and needs to slow things down with wrestling-style moves.
OSB Prediction: Devonte Smith (-110)
Kevin Holland (-150) vs. Kyle Daukaus (+110)
Feel free to consider an upset here. Kyle Daukaus has the knockout potential to overthrow Kevin Holland.
But we can't bring ourselves to do it. Daukas remains too raw. He's allowing opponents to connect on over 60 percent of their significant strikes per minute and has a takedown accuracy below 30 percent himself. That's a bad combination when going up against the more fundamentally sound Holland.
OSB Prediction: Kevin Holland (-150)
Joe Solecki (-160) vs. Jared Gordon (+130)
Joe Solecki feels like he's getting too much of the benefit of the doubt here.
Sure, he is working off four consecutive victories. But Jared Gordon has two straight wins to his name, and while he's a slightly less-accurate vertical fighter, he more than offsets the gap between he and Solecki with high-octane speed.
The odds say this is an upset pick. But we think Gordon is more favorite than underdog.
OSB Prediction: Jared Gordon (+130)
Aspen Ladd (-200) vs. Macy Chiasson (+160)
Aspen Ladd and Macy Chiasson each only have one loss on their record apiece. What's more, their fighting styles make for what should be a fairly tight matchup.
For our money, though, we like Ladd. She is successfully making contact on a larger percentage of her punches and somehow posting a 75 percent accuracy rate on her takedowns—a truly absurd number, even for someone with fewer than 12 UFC bouts to her resume.
Ladd is our selection, and we have no regrets.
OSB Prediction: Aspen Ladd
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