PFL (Professional Fighters League) has been in the news plenty lately — signing major fight names and buying Bellator. This weekend, they’re putting together a fight card in Europe with sneaky good betting opportunities. You’re going to want to read this to get our best bets of the PFL European Championship.
- What: PFL Europe 4
- When: Friday, December 8
- Where: 3Arena in Dublin, Ireland
For bettors not in the know, PFL has a separate fight promotion in Europe. It started earlier this year and this marks only the fourth card of the mini-league. This keeps the tournament-style fighting that the regular PFL does with tourney winners getting a $100,000 prize and a shot in the regular PFL roster (which has even larger prize pools).
This is a 13-fight card, but we’re sticking to the main events with our PFL picks. Here are three bets worth looking into:
Nate Kelly vs. Dimitry Solimeis Betting Pick
This is an interesting main event from PFL Europe. Interesting because it’s the main event over two championship fights. Interesting because Kelly is the runaway moneyline favorite over Solimeis at -600 odds. Interesting because Kelly isn’t even a big name. Before we explain what’s going on, let’s look at the Solimeis-Kelly over/under odds, which is where our money is going:
Here’s why this is the main event: it’s a home crowd offering. You see, Kelly is from Ireland and he’ll get a hero’s welcome in front of the Dublin fans. Moreover, his fight style is a crowd-pleaser. Kelly is prone to getting the stoppage as six of eight career wins have come early (three by KO and another three via submission). After losing his first two pro fights, Kelly has strung together eight consecutive victories.
We can’t help but feel Solimeis is being thrown to the wolves here. He’s a respectable 6-3 over his career, but we don’t see many advantages for him in this fight. He’s more of a striker than anything else but doesn’t have much grappling to fall back on. Our money says Kelly gets him out early. The hometown kid will be motivated to put on a show for the fans, which lends itself to an under hitting.
Khurshed Kakhorov vs. Frans Mlambo Betting Pick
All right, this is a bantamweight title fight — the European version of the belt, not the “real” PFL title. Once again, the Mlambo-Kakhorov moneyline odds aren’t very competitive with Kakhorov being a -275 favorite. Therefore, we’re once again riding the over/under bet between Kakhorov and Mlambo instead. Here are the odds across the top betting sites for sports:
Mlambo, despite being a considerable underdog, has won seven fights in a row. He’s a pretty well-balanced fighter, and that’s evident in his wins. He has 15 career wins — eight by stoppage (four KOs and four submissions) and seven via decision. But honestly, this is just a bad matchup for Mlambo. Why? Because the South African has a bad tendency to let his hands hang too low.
He’s gotten away with it this far, but Kakhorov could pose a threat. The 11-1 German fighter has a very aggressive style which has resulted in seven wins by KO. Mlambo has met his maker here. We say his chin gets treated and ultimately fails him. Bet Kakhorov to win in under 2.5 rounds.
John Mitchell vs. Jakub Kaszuba Betting Pick
At last, we have ourselves a close fight in this one. Just take a look at how even the Kaszuba-Mitchell betting odds are right now. This PFL lightweight title final is almost a toss-up:
Both fighters’ main discipline is wrestling. On one hand, you have Kaszuba out of Poland. He’s a perfect 10-0. His win style is balanced — four decisions, four KOs, and two tapouts — but make no mistake, he prefers staying on the ground. Mitchell is also a hometown fighter from Ireland. His record is a respectable 8-1.
Honestly, the best way to pick this fight is to decide who’s the better wrestler. In that regard, we’re going with Kaszuba. If anything, he’s way more active with takedown attempts. We’re not convinced Mitchell has good enough defense to fend off the takedown for five rounds (it’s a championship fight, remember?). We agree with the bookmakers here and our backing Kaszuba too.
How To Bet On PFL Europe?
We’ll be honest, PFL Europe betting can’t be found at just any site. This card is flying under the radar and many bookmakers have slept on offering odds for it — but not the sites listed below. Moneyline, over/unders, and even some props can be had at one of the listed sites. Click one of the “play now” buttons to get a full list of the bet types for the PFL card.
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