The fourth-ever UFC on ABC card comes at you this week, and it’s jam-packed with betting opportunities. We’ve decided to laser-focus on the night’s top fights and select the three UFC bets we’re most confident will cash. Stay with us if you want our betting advice for free!
- What: UFC on ABC
- When: Saturday, May 13
- Where: Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Jailton Almeida
The moneyline odds for the main event are way, way too lopsided for our liking. Almeida is a massive favorite at -500, while Rozenstruik is a +400 underdog. Unless you’re of the belief the underdog will win (we are not), then you must find betting value elsewhere in this fight. We found that value in the Almeida-Rozenstruik over/under line. Here’s where the odds stand at top betting sites for UFC:
We won’t mince words, Almeida should win this fight. He has every single advantage over Rozenstruik — age (Almeida is four years younger), reach, and skills. If standing up, Almeida has a higher average strikes landed per minute than Rozenstruik. But more impressively, Almeida has a 6.73 takedown average to Rozenstruik’s 0. Yes, Rozenstruik legitimately has zero takedowns in his career — it’s not part of his game at all.
If Almeida is going to win, it’s likely going to be from a stoppage. All five of his UFC wins have been via stoppage, and the same goes for his 18 career wins. Almeida has never ever won by decision. Ever! The question is, does Rozenstruik go down before or after that 1.5-round mark? Ya know, we think the over hits.
Rozenstruik might have zero takedown game, but that’s on offense — not defense. His takedown defense is actually 75 percent, which is an impressive figure. We give Rozenstruik a slim chance to win, but he won’t be an easy out either. Almeida will have to earn this win in the third round or so best take the over.
Moneyline: Anthony Smith vs. Johnny Walker
Originally, this light heavyweight clash was scheduled to main event the show. It’s been “relegated” to co-main event, albeit still a five-rounder. Unlike the previous fight, this one is as close as it gets on the moneyline. As it stands, Smith vs. Walker is at pick ‘em:
This fight will be fought primarily standing up. Neither have much grappling ability. While Smith does have a jiu-jitsu background, it’s nothing out of this world either. Smith is No. 5 in the weight class rankings so he needs to string a few wins together to get back into title contention. He hasn’t stepped into the octagon since sustaining an ankle injury mid-fight to Magomed Ankalaev, which cost him dearly.
Walker will have a massive size advantage in this one. He’s two inches taller than Smith, but it’s reach where Walker will have a massive opportunity on Saturday. Walker’s reach is 82 inches to Smith’s 76.
We have a strong inkling Walker earns the win here. The number-seven-ranked lightweight is unorthodox in the octagon, to say the least. Spinning and leaping punches are the norm with him, which could catch Smith off guard — especially with Walker’s lengthy arms. Our money says that Walker gets the stoppage victory here.
Moneyline: Daniel Rodriguez vs. Ian Garry
Here’s another exciting fight featuring two strikers at welterweight. Garry is 11 years younger than Rodriguez, which might explain why Garry is a convincing betting favorite here:
Garry is 11-0 and likely has a strong future in this sport. His punching speed is seriously something to marvel at, but we’re not ready to crown him just yet. Rodriguez is the stiffest challenge he’s ever faced, and this fight is closer than oddsmakers are letting on.
Honestly, we love the underdog betting value of Rodriguez here. We see a scenario where he stops Garry, who has lackluster defense, particularly in the head movement department. Rodriguez's betting line is undervalued and worth taking here.
How To Bet On UFC On ABC Card?
All in all, there 13 fights across the UFC on ABC card you can bet on. Our article above only covered the main ones, but there’s plenty more betting value elsewhere. If you want every type of UFC bet available this weekend — moneylines, over/under, and props — hit one of the bookmakers listed underneath. Any one of these sites will offer them at bettor-friendly prices.
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