All eyes are on Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington in the main event. But what if we told you the UFC 296 undercard is where the best bets actually are? We truly believe it, and if you keep on reading, we’ll give you three free UFC 296 bets to make on the undercard.
- What: UFC 296
- When: Saturday, December 16
- Where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada
Vicente Luque vs. Ian Machado Betting Pick
This fight will open the main card, and it’s a banger at welterweight. The first thing that we said to ourselves when we saw the Luque-Machado odds was, “wow, why so one-sided?” Really, per the best-used UFC betting sites, Machado (or Garry if you want to call him that; we won’t get into the drama) is a staggering favorite to win. Here’s the latest Luque-Machado odds:
Look, we get it, Machado is called “The Future” for a reason. The 26-year-old is 13-0 and is up to No. 10 in the welterweight rankings. Many believe he’s indeed a future title contender. We can see why because he has elite traits. Most of all, Machado’s striking is something to marvel at. He’s landing 6.67 strikes per minute and hits pretty hard with 7 career KOs.
But at the same time, we don’t quite know just how good Machado actually is. That’s because his competition up to this point has been subpar. Luque is easily the best fighter he’s faced yet. You talk about a guy who’s faced world-class fighters, that’s Luque to a tee. His record includes names like Leon Edwards, Belal Muhammad, Stephen Thompson, and even Mike Perry. Luque has accumulated a 22-9 record against this stiff competition.
Look, Machado is probably winning this fight, but as bettors, we do see value in taking Luque at almost +300. That’s too mispriced for him. Luque can do it all in the octagon — strike, grapple, defend the takedown, and more. He has a better chance of an upset than oddsmakers are letting on. To us, the risk-reward on Luque is simply too good to pass up.
Cody Garbrandt vs. Brian Kelleher Betting Pick
You know this is a deep fight card when a former bantamweight champion who’s only 32 years old is in the prelims. We’re talking about Garbrandt here, who is allergic to bad fights. He gets Kelleher, who also is a highly entertaining fighter. With this matchup, we’re eyeing the Garbrandt-Kelleher over/under. Here’s how oddsmaker have pegged it:
Garbrandt is a -215 favorite to win. The reason we’re skipping the moneyline bet altogether is because Garbrandt is consistently inconsistent. At 25 years old, he was 11-0 and champion of the world. Since then? He’s gone 2-5. Four of those losses, by the way, are by KO. So yes, the guy is chinny.
That might be a bad combo against Kelleher, who is a boxer through and through. When he fights, it seems very clear that he’s going for a stoppage. In 24 wins, Kelleher has won eight by KO and another 10 by submission. The issue is Kelleher is 37 years old now and he’s lost two in a row. It feels like he’s lost a step himself.
To us, betting the under makes sense. Getting KO’d is a real possibility for Garbrandt because his chin has been gone for years now. But at the same time, he should win. Garbrandt’s skill set far exceeds that of Kelleher. We’re expecting a rock em sock ‘em robots type fight that ends with one fighter going out early.
Josh Emmett vs. Bryce Mitchell Betting Pick
This featherweight fight was originally slotted to be Emmett against Giga Chikadze. That all changed when Chiladze suffered a groin injury. Bryce Mitchell stepped up with less than two weeks' notice to fill in. Despite that short turnaround, Mitchell is comfortably favored to beat Emmett. Here’s where the moneyline stands:
This fight is a complete styles clash. Mitchell is a wrestler, who’s going to shoot at legs all night long. He’s averaging an impressive 3.51 takedowns in the UFC. Emmett actually has a wrestling background, but somehow never uses it. Instead, the veteran prefers standing up and swinging with great success. Emmett is tied for the most knockdowns in UFC featherweight history at 11.
If this fight was only a couple of years ago, we’d take Emmett in a heartbeat. He can really be a complete fighter when he chooses to use his wrestling. However, we sense the now 38 year old is slipping skills-wise. Emmett has lost two in a row, most recently to Ilia Topuria in a lopsided affair. Even on short notice, we expect Mitchell to outwrestle him all fight long enough to score a decision win.
Parlay bettors might want to think about a same-game parlay on this fight. If Mitchell is winning, it’ll be by decision. Yes, he can submit opponents too but Emmett is going to be able to hang with him at wrestling a little. Emmett is too experienced to make a big mistake that gets him caught in a tap-out situation.
How To Bet On UFC 296?
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