Best UFC 293 Bets: Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland Picks

Need help betting on UFC 293? Then keep on reading. We’ve analyzed the right card’s very best rights and hand-picked three UFC bets we’re confident will have you cashing out by the end of Saturday!

What: UFC 293
Where: Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia
When: Saturday, September 10

Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland Betting Pick

You just had to know an event hosted in Australia would feature Adesanya as the headliner. The Aussie native and middleweight champion defends his title against a fan favorite of his own accord, Sean Strickland. The moneyline isn’t exactly dripping with value as Adesanya is -650 to win (Strickland is +425). For this reason, our money is instead going on the Adesanya-Strickland over/under, which is set to 4.5 rounds. Here’s the line:

Outcome
Over 4.5 rounds	-110	-110	-110
Under 4.5 rounds	-110	-110	-110

We won’t mince words: Strickland needs a small miracle to win this fight. He’s nowhere near Adesanya’s level and only got this title shot because Dricus du Plessis was not available. Strickland is an exciting fighter, but not a particularly dangerous one. He’s 14-5 in his UFC tenure with losses to opponents Adesanya has beaten such as Alex Pereira and Jared Cannonier. Strickland’s fight style is striking heavy. Sure, he’ll come forward and throw, but his punches aren’t laced with power.

A fighting style like that lends itself to taking shots back too so Adesanya will have openings. The question is, does he actually take them? Adesanya is fresh off a KO of Alex Pereira, who had bullied him in three previous fights. However, that was Adesanya’s first stoppage since 2020. For a while there, fans and bettors alike were saying Adesanya was boring. So it’s to be seen whether Adesnya will right conservative or aggressive against Strickland.

Our gut says Adesnya lets the fists fly at UFC 293. For one, Strickland doesn’t really have stopping power so Adesanya can be more aggressive. But two, it’s a homecoming fight. You really don’t think “The Last Stylebender” doesn’t want to put on a show at home? He’s a showboater so we expect an early stop. For that reason, the under is the bet to make here.

Under 4.5 rounds in

-110

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Alexander Volkov vs. Tai Tuivasa Betting Pick

Another Aussie fighter gets his shine in the co-main event. This one being Tuivasa. However, unlike Adesanya, Tuivasa is a convincing underdog against Volkov in a showdown of heavyweights. Here’s how the top-used UFC betting sites have pegged the Tuivasa vs. Volkov moneyline:

Fighter
Alexander Volkov	-250	-250	-250
Tai Tuivasa	+200	+200	+200

This should be a fun fight for two reasons. First, Tuivasa might be the most-cheered fighter in the crowd so the atmosphere will be dialed up to 10. But two, this fight is going to be a slugfest. Neither heavyweight has a ground game — Tuivasa has zero takedowns in his UFC career. Expect both men to exchange on the feet, which bodes well for the under bet if anyone’s interested.

However, we do like the moneyline bet more. That’s because we think Volkov is the superior fighter. He's bigger and lands more significant strikes per minute than Tuivasa. This feels like the fight where bettors pack into Tuivasa because of the underdog spread and likability. That’s the perfect fading material in our book. Volkov takes this, bank on it!

Alexander Volkov to

+-250

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Justin Tafa vs. Austen Lane Betting Pick

Another heavyweight fight, another Aussie native fighting, and another slugfest. This one features Tafa representing The Land Down Under and the challenger, Lane. Here again, we’re most interested in betting the Lane-Tafa moneyline, which is listed here:

Fighter
Justin Tafa	-200	-200	-200
Austen Lane	+165	+165	+165

It was only a few months ago that these two met in the octagon. The fight lasted all of 29 seconds before Lane poked Tafa in the eyes, resulting in a no-contest. This is the rematch and the betting line has swung even more in Tafa’s favor. He closed around as -140 favorite the last time out, but he’s up to -200 in this homecoming.

To us, that seems like a mispricing. Nothing besides the location has changed, and that’s not significant enough to explain the line disparity. There’s some real betting value in taking the upset here. Lane has a lot of physical advantages including size, power, and athleticism (the man used to play in the NFL for a frame of reference). We’re taking Lane to play the spoiler. This line should be closer than it is so we’ll take Lane’s value here.

Austen Lane to

+165

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How To Bet On UFC 293?

UFC 293 is loaded with betting chances — far more than the three we covered. For a complete list of UFC 293 betting options, hit one of the bookies below. These sites are top-rated, per our up-to-date sportsbook reviews. Every type of bet (moneyline, over/under, parlays, etc.) will be carried by any of these sites across the dozen or so fights on the card.

We encourage placing your UFC bets sooner rather thanlater too. Because of the time-zone differences between Australia and the United States, UFC 293 will be earlier than usual. You don’t want to make the mistake of forgetting to bet entirely — especially when we’ve layed out expert advice right here!