UFC Vegas 100 Picks: Garbrandt vs Johns Best Bets

The co-headliner at UFC Vegas 100 this November features one of the more highly anticipated bouts on a fight night card. Miles Johns is putting his three-match winning streak on the line versus Cody Garbrandt, who is working off a devastating loss to Deiveson Figueieredo at UFC 300 this past April. Who is more likely to emerge victorious? Get ready to break it all down.

What: UFC Vegas 100 (UFC Fight Night 247, UFC on ESPN+ 105
When: Saturday, November 9, 2024
Start Time: 4 p.m. EST (preliminary bouts), 7 p.m. EST (main card)
Where: Las Vegas, Nevada
Venue: UFC Apex
Where to Watch: ESPN+ (subscription required)
Main Event: Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates

Garbrandt brings a 14-6-0 record to UFC Vegas 100, with each of his past four matches coming at one of the company’s pay-per-view events. This will mark his fourth time inside the octagon overall since March 2023.

Johns brings a sterling 15-2-0 record, with one no contest, to the fold. However, the 30-year-old is just starting to take on some bigger name opponents.

UFC Vegas 100 Co-Main Event: Cody Garabrant vs. Miles Johns Betting Lines

Even though Garbrandt has more experience in primetime than Johns, the linemakers currently peg the latter as the favorite. Here are the latest online UFC betting odds for this matchup:

To Win
Cody Garbrandt	+115	+115	+110	+116
Miles Johns	-135	-135	-130	-135

Always remember to keep rechecking these UFC Vegas 100 betting lines right up until you actually place your wager. Our UFC betting odds are accurate entering Tuesday, October 29. This gives the best online UFC betting sites more than enough time to continue adjusting lines depending on how the pre-bell action shakes out.

To this point, the lines have not moved much. Miles Johns opened as the -145 favorite at certain sportsbooks, so the lines have shifted toward Garbrandt ever so slightly, but not by any serious margins. Granted, that could change in the lead-up to the fight. More people started pouncing on Garbrandt a couple of weeks ago after he reportedly said that he would “love” to re-sign with the UFC if the money was right.

The Case for Cody Garabrandt to Defeat Miles Johns

UFC Vegas 100 is currently set to be the last fight for which Cody Garbrandt (+115) is under contract. Could he view this as an audition for another deal? Or a potential swan song? And either way, how will that impact Garbrandt’s approach?

Chances are we won’t see the 29-year-old shift his strategy regardless of the circumstances. He has always prided himself on defense and grappling, and unless you expect him to suddenly turn into a more ferocious striker, he will likely follow that same script.

Of course, you would like to see him land more of the shots he takes. Garbrandt is currently connecting on just 40 percent of strike attempts. He had moments in which he looked like he might go on a run versus Figueiredo, but his combos were again too inconsistent. Figueiredo was ultimately able to do him in with a rear naked chokehold.

Garbrandt will not have to worry about that against Johns. He entered UFC as more of a power hitter than anything. But that gusto has faded over the years. Johns has not delivered a knockout since August 2021, at UFC 265.

Cody Garbrandt To beat Miles Johns at UFC Vegas 100

+115

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The Case for Miles Johns to Beat Cody Garbrandt

Miles Johns (-135) can often appeal to bettors for his overall scouting report. He entered the UFC with some pretty wicked striking chops.

But those are no longer as prevalent. And he has not exactly polished off his grappling to make up for it. Johns is landing just 47 percent of his strikes attempts to go along with 20 percent of his takedowns.

Still, Johns has been able to overwhelm with his stamina. All of his past four matches have gone to a decision, and he continues to impress with his evasion and blocking techniques. Opponents are landing just 31 percent of their strikes on Johns as well as only 15 percent of their takedown attempts.

That will serve him well versus Garbrandt, who is not the most accurate fighter in the first place. He can get even sloppier as the rounds wear on, opening his chin up to strikes from Johns that needn’t be too powerful to end the match early.

Miles Johns To beat Cody Garbrandt at UFC Vegas 100

-135

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UFC Vegas 100 Picks for Garbrandt vs Johns

If this were a few fights ago, we may be more inclined to side with most online sportsbooks in the United States giving the edge to Miles Johns. We cannot get there at this time.

The loss of power from Johns is too stark in our book. He needs more of a wind up or running start to generate the thrust necessary to inflict real damage. He is not going to have the time necessary to go through those motions against Garbrandt. And even on the occasions that he does, there is no guarantee he connects. His accuracy is all over the place these days.

Sure, Garbrandt is hardly a billboard for consistency himself. He takes too many unnecessary risks that leave him open to KOs and TKOs in early rounds. But he can still land the show-stopping combination every now and then. That is more than we can say for Johns these days.

Indeed, we will feel worse about our prediction the longer this match goes on. Overall, though, we like Garbrandt’s package better than that of Johns.

Cody Garbrandt To beat Miles Johns at UFC Vegas 100

+115

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Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can find one that works for all of your sports betting needs: