A Light Heavyweight Division showdown has made the main card cut for UFC Tampa this Saturday, December 14.
Vitor Petrino is slated to take on Dustin Jacoby in this slot. Our mission: decide which fighter represents the best bet to win.
- What: UFC Tampa
- When: Saturday, December 14, 2024
- Start Time: 7 p.m. EST (preliminary bouts), 10 p.m. EST (main card)
- Where: Tampa Bay, Florida
- Venue: Amalie Arena
- Where to Watch: ESPN 2 (preliminary rounds), ESPN+ (main event; subscription required)
- Main Event: Joaquin Buckley vs. Colby Covington
Petrino comes to UFC Tampa with a sterling 11-1-0 career record. However, he is working off the first loss of his career with The Company. The 27-year-old dropped his UFC 301 matchup against Anthony Smith after submitting to a Guillotine Choke. Everybody is interested to see how will respond after having almost seven months to prepare for his first fight coming out of a loss.
The 36-year-old Jacoby enters UFC Tampa with a 19-9-1 overall record. His most recent fight took place this past June, and he lost it to Dominick Reyes by KO/TKO (punches). Jacoby has now lost two consecutive bouts and four his past five. On top of that, his quest to regain pay per view event consideration continues to look bleak. He has not qualified for one of those cards since UFC 272 all the way back in March 2022.
UFC Tampa Light Heavyweight Headliner: Vitor Petrino vs Dustin Jacoby Betting Lines
Initial reactions to this matchup suggested it might be more of a tossup. But the latest online UFC betting odds paint a different picture, as you can see below:
Always remember to double-check these Vitor Petrino vs. Dustin Jacoby betting lines until you have officially submitted all of your wagers. Our UFC Tampa betting odds are accurate entering Tuesday, December 10. This still gives the best online UFC betting sites more than enough time to make potential adjustments ahead of Saturday’s opening bell.
For what it is worth, we expect the Dustin Jacoby vs. Vitor Petrino betting odds to pretty much hold serve. But because interest in UFC Fight Nights such as UFC Tampa spikes following pay per view cards such as UFC 310, we still recommend bracing for any sudden movements—the strongest of which usually occur on the betting favorite front.
On the bright side, these post-pay-per-view Fight Nights are always a good time to capitalize on special promotions from the best online sports betting apps in 2024. This rings doubly true as we close the calendar and sportsbook operators look to beef up their ledgers for the first fiscal quarter of 2025. This is among the time of year you can see the most friendly sign-up and returning deposit promotions.
The Case for Vitor Petrino to Beat Dustin Jacoby
This is uncharted territory for Petrino. He has never needed to prepare for a fight coming off a loss.
“Nobody wants to lose, but unfortunately it's part of the game,” says Petrino (via UFC’s official website), who was submitted by Anthony Smith in the early stages of their main card clash at UFC 301 in Rio de Janeiro back in May. He also adds that his preparation has not changed in the aftermath of the loss.
That makes sense. Viewers and analysts tend to see struggles and losses differently than the athletes and fighters themselves. It takes an absurd level of confidence to reach this level. Petrino would not be here, let alone have been undefeated for so long, if he did not fit that mold.
It helps that his overall profile remains in the green. The 27-year-old is averaging almost four takedowns per 36 minutes but does not solely rely on those these days. He is up to 2.82 significant strikes per minute, which he lands at a 45 percent clip. These are not show-stomping numbers, but he has shown the capacity to hang in higher-striking matches when the situation calls for it.
Petrino’s loss to Smith feels more like an aberration than anything. Smith was working off a few losses, and Petrino has chalked the submission up to a momentary lapse. When you’ve won each of your four previous matches, you have earned some benefit of the doubt.
The Case for Dustin Jacoby to Beat Vitor Petrino
In many ways, Jacoby is a polar opposite fighter compared to Petrino. Where the latter excels at bringing opponents down to the mat for submissions or by going for one-shot victories, Jacoby aims to overwhelm with punching volume. He is landing 5.50 strikes per minute at roughly a UFC-average clip. This aggressive approach can get him into trouble. We saw as much in his KO/TKO loss to Dominick Reyes back in June. He lost the striking battle 20-6 and lasted barely two minutes.
Jacoby will have to be cognizant on his feet when going up against Petrino. But he isn’t going up against someone who typically pulls out victories with relentless punching. If his takedown defense (60 percent) can hold, he may be able to push this to a decision or find an opening to unleash one of his striking rips.
UFC Tampa Picks for Petrino vs Jacoby
Jacoby’s scorching-hot stretches of striking make him an interesting upset possibility. When he gets in the zone, he can rattle off 100-plus strikes in all three rounds.
Still, at 36, he does appear to have slowed down a little bit. And that does not just compromise his striking. It also makes him a target for Petrino’s predator style wrestling.
Granted, attempting to bully Anthony Smith got Petrino into some trouble during his first career loss. But Jacoby does not have the package of counters and wrestling technique.
To be blunt, we will be modestly surprised if this fight goes the distance. Petrino’s track record suggests he’ll have the edge necessary to bag a KO or submission.
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