The main event at UFC Tampa figures to be doozy. Joaquin Buckley vs. Colby Covington has generated all sorts of intrigue ever since the latter was named as a replacement for Ian Machado Garry. But do you know what? The co-headliner between Cub Swanson and Billy Quarantillo is shaping to be just as compelling.
- What: UFC Tampa
- When: Saturday, December 14, 2024
- Start Time: 7 p.m. EST (preliminary bouts), 10 p.m. EST (main card)
- Where: Tampa Bay, Florida
- Venue: Amalie Arena
- Where to Watch: ESPN 2 (preliminary rounds), ESPN+ (main event; subscription required)
- Main Event: Joaquin Buckley vs. Colby Covington
Cub Swanson brings one of the most extensive resumes in The Company to UFC Tampa. He has a lifetime record of 29-14-0. And he last fought in June, at UFC 303, against Andre Fili. Swanson lost that matchup by third-round submission. Notably, he has not won consecutive bouts since beating Kron Gracie in October 2019 and then taking out Daniel Pineda at UFC 256 in December 2020.
Billy Quarantillo enters UFC Tampa with an overall record of 18-6-0. His last came in March, which he lost by submission (rear naked chokehold) to Youssef Zalal. Much like Swanson, he has struggled to cobble together consecutive victories. His last two-match winning streak came in 2020, as part of a longer string of victories.
UFC Tampa Co-Main Event: Cub Swanson vs Billy Quarantillo Betting Lines
Fans have been open for the 41-year-old Cub Swanson to get a winnable matchup. As the latest online UFC betting odds show, this fight may be exactly that, even though he enters as the underdog:
As usual, please remember to double-check these UFC Tampa betting odds until you actually finalize your wagers. Our Cub Swanson vs. Billy Quarantillo betting lines are accurate entering Thursday, December 5. This gives the best online UFC betting sites more than enough time to continue making adjustments ahead of the opening bell.
Based on the relative uniformity of Swanson vs. Quarantillo odds at all the most popular online sportsbooks in the United States, we do not expect to see much movement between now and December 14. However, we always recommend rechecking UFC betting lines following the conclusion of a pay-per-view event. In this case, with UFC 310 scheduled for December 7, you should quadruple-check these lines if you’re placing wagers on Dec. 8 or later.
The Case for Cub Swanson to Beat Billy Quarantillo
So many UFC fans want to see Cub Swanson (+135) get his 30th career UFC victory. He came fairly close versus Fili last June, when he lost by split decision. Though he’s slowed down over the years, the 5’8” legend has plenty of moxie left him. He lost the striking battle to Fili by just five total hits, and in his victory over Hakeem Dawodu in August 2023, he landed a whopping 95 strikes across three rounds.
Even as he’s slowed down, Swanson can still put together extended stretches of killer combinations. He is landing 4.67 significant strikes per minute at a 50 percent clip. And on any given night, he has the chops to elevate both of those marks.
To be fair, longer fights do not seem to favor him at this stage of his career—not even in three-round settings. But Swanson has the power and versatility to go for one-shot victories. His career list of KOs/TKOs includes a mix of punching and kicking.
Billy Quarantillo (-155) might be favored, but he has struggled against fights with stylistic variability in the past. Swanson may not be able to hold a shape-shifting form for a full 15 minutes, but he can string together enough moments to give his 35-year-old opponent problems.
The Case for Billy Quarantillo to Beat Cub Swanson
Speed and size are going to be Quarantillo’s friends for this matchup. He has two inches, at 5’10”, on Swanson. More importantly, Quarantillo is landing 7.36 significant strikes per minute—an absolutely flabbergasting number.
This quick-twitch hitting does not come at the expense of accuracy. Billy Q enters UFC Tampa landing 56 percent of his strikes, which is well above the UFC average of 46 to 48 percent.
Swanson’s M.O. entails coming out and setting the tone in the early part of the first round. But if Billy Q can play good enough defense to withstand that initial flurry, his stamina in the back end of rounds will serve him well.
It also helps that he needn’t worry too much about getting out-wrestled. Though Swanson averages over one takedown per three rounds, those are not his go-to move.
UFC Tampa Picks for Swanson vs Quarantillo
Give us Cub Swanson over Billy Quarantillo at UFC Tampa.
Some might call this an overly nostalgic pick. It is not. We simply believe Swanson has enough fuel left in the tank to edge out Quarantillo in what should be a vertical battle.
Indeed, we must recognize the potential for this to go sideways. Swanson will be at a disadvantage if he’s not controlling the pace of rounds. Billy Q is a speed demon.
At the same time, Quarantillo’s approach can often mess up his footwork and overall stances. Opponents land 57 percent of their strikes against him, and he’s absorbing nearly 5.6 significant blows per minute.
That leaves Quarantillo uniquely vulnerable to Swanson at the top of each round, when the latter is at his freshest. This isn’t to say we think this ends early. In fact, we would be a little surprised if it does. But we think Swanson will be accurate and aggressive enough in the front end of each round to win the striking battle and pick up the victory by decision.
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