With UFC 311 officially in the books, the focus now shifts to UFC Saudi Arabia on Saturday, Feb. 1. Fortunately for mixed martial arts fans, the entire main card does not disappoint.
If you’re in the market for Israel Adesanya vs Nassourdine Imavov betting picks, we have already got you covered. In this space, though, we are tackling Sergei Pavlovich vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik.
- What: UFC Saudi Arabia (UFC Fight Night 250)
- When: Saturday, February 1, 2025
- Start Time: 7 p.m. EST (preliminary bouts), 10 p.m. EST (main card)
- Where: Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
- Venue: anb Arena
- Where to Watch: ESPN+ (subscription required)
- Main Event: Israel Adesanya vs Nassourdine Imavov
Sergei Pavlovich enters UFC Saudi Arabia with an overall record of 18-3-0. However, two of his three career losses have come in succession during his last two bouts. Pavlovich lost to Alexander Volkov at a Fight Night back in June. Before that, he fell to Tom Aspinall at UFC 295 in November 2023, this time by KO/TKO.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik arrives at UFC Saudi Arabia with a lifetime record of 15-5-0 with The Company. Contrary to Pavlovich, he has picked up wins in each of his last two matches. He beat Tai Tuivasa by split decision at UFC 305 in August. Prior to that, he knocked out Shamil Gaziev at a Fight Night in March 2024.
As things stand, Jairzinho has not lost for roughly 18 months. His last letdown came versus Jailton Almedia at a Fight Night in May 2023.
UFC Saudi Arabia Heavyweight Battle: Sergei Pavlovich vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik Betting Lines
Given the most recent events, the expectation initially was that online UFC betting odds would give the edge to Jairzinho Rozenstruik. But, as you can see below, this is not the case:
As usual, we encourage you to double-check these UFC Saudi Arabia betting odds right up until you actually submit your wager. Our UFC Saudi Arabia betting lines are accurate entering Tuesday, January 21. This still gives the best online UFC betting sites a few weeks to make adjustments ahead of the opening bell.
In particular, we are waiting to see more of a push from the public on Rozenstruik. At 2-to-1 odds against Pavlovich, we expect him to gain momentum as a realistic dark horse winner. In fact, many of the top online sportsbooks for UFC betting have already needed to bridge the gap separating him from Pavlovich.
The Case for Sergei Pavlovich to Beat Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Despite his recent rough stretch, Sergei Pavlovich is actually getting a lot of love ahead of UFC Saudi Arabia. It is not just the UFC Saudi Arabia betting lines, either. Analysts are picking him in droves to beat Rozenstruik.
This, of course, seems like a nod to Pavlovich’s absurd power. He lands 5.86 significant strikes per minute. And before dropping his last two bouts, the 32-year-old rattled off six straight victories in the heavyweight division by knockout or total knockout.
Not surprisingly, many who are picking Pavlovich to beat Rozenstruik do not expect this match to reach a decision. And considering Pavlovich’s improved defense, both vertically and against submission maneuvers, you can understand that level of appeal in his corner.
The Case for Jairzinho Rozenstruik to Beat Sergei Pavlovich
There seems to be a disconnect between Rozenstruik’s talent and the perception of him by the general public. Many are citing his lackluster 3.75 significant strikes per minute as a factor that will cause him to lose. That is a fair point…if it still reflected Rozenstruik’s rate of play.
Over his past two fights, Rozenstruik has delivered noticeably quicker combinations. He won the striking battle 127-22 against Gaziev last March, and then he out-struck Tuivasas 91-37 back in August.
This represents a noticeable stylistic shift for Rozenstruik. Previously, he cleared the 100-strike mark just once, dating back to February 2019. Some of that is owed to the number of knockouts he’s racked up. But he’s seen more of his matches go into later rounds or decisions than Pavlovich.
That increased striking volume on top of his stamina is a clear advantage for the one fans affectionately call Bigi Boy. And while he could stand to have more variance in his arsenal, he may not need it against Pavlovich, who also does not have much of a wrestling repertoire of which to speak.
UFC Saudi Arabia Picks for Rozenstruik vs. Pavlovich
Predicting upsets at upsets at UFC Saudi Arabia has become a theme around these parts. We already picked two at the top of the main card. And, well, here comes a third: Jairzinho Rozenstruik is going to beat Sergei Pavlovich.
Make no mistake, we have all the respect in the world for Pavlovich’s power. He has the potential to KO Rozenstruik within moments of the opening bell.
Still, in the aggregate, we think Rozenstruik has more counters to lean on. His striking speed is better and more accurate, and he’s also shown the ability to block punching attempts at a higher clip as a defender.
To be sure, we do worry about the six extra inches Pavlovich boasts in the reach department (84-78). But as we have seen in his past two fights, this may no longer be such a deciding factory.
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