This year’s main event at UFC Macau is almost upon us. It will feature a showdown between two veterans, Deiveson Figueiredo and Petr Yan. Which fighter has the edge leading into Saturday’s tilt? Let’s find out.
- What: UFC Macau
- When: Saturday, November 23, 2024
- Start Time: 12 a.m. EST (preliminary bouts), 3 a.m.. EST (main card)
- Where: Cotai, Macau
- Venue: Galaxy Arena
- Where to Watch: ESPN+ (subscription required)
- Main Event: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Petr Yan
Figueiredo enters UFC Macau with an overall record of 24-3-1. He last fought Marlon Vera at a UFC Night back in August, which he won by unanimous decision. After falling to Brandon Moreno at UFC 283, Figuieredo has rattled off three straight victories.
Petr Yan comes into UFC Macau with an overall record of 17-5-0. His last fight came at UFC 299 in March, where he faced Song Yadong and won by a unanimous decision. Before that, however, he dropped three straight matches. That makes this a huge opportunity for the 31-year-old former Bantamweight champion, as he tries to work his way back into a glitzier rotation.
UFC Macau Main Event: Deiveson Figueiredo vs Petr Yan Betting Lines
Though he is fresh off an extended losing streak, Petr Yan enters as the heavy favorite to beat Deiveson Figueiredo. Here are the latest online UFC Macau betting odds:
Please remember to double-check these UFC Macau betting lines until you actually submit your wager. Our UFC Macau betting odds are accurate entering Tuesday, November 19. That gives the best online UFC betting sites plenty of time to adjust their lines ahead of the opening bell.
Not surprisingly, we have already seen some movement following the conclusion of UFC 309. Yan was not nearly as heavily favored, but public action has shifted starkly towards him as people started digging into this matchup after the pay-per-view event.
The Case for Deiveson Figueiredo to Beat Petr Yan
Many are concerned about how Deiveson “Figgy” Figueiredo will hold up in a main-event fight. He has not been in the position since losing his Flyweight title to Moreno almost three years ago.
However, he has run off three straight victories since relocating to the 135-pound division. Moving up in weight class does make his power stand out less, but it has put his speed more in line with that of his opponents. In particular, his evasive maneuvers are hitting differently. He is absorbing 3.39 significant strikes per minute overall, but that number has dropped precipitously since relocating to this division.
Yan could find himself hard-pressed to connect on combinations versus Figgy’s lateral quickness. And that would be problematic, given that much of his success is predicated on overwhelming volume.
Yan is currently landing 5.14 significant strikes per minute. If Figgy can drag that number down, he’ll put himself in a reasonable position to pull off the upset.
The Case for Petr Yan to Beat Deiveson Figueiredo
Stamina may be Petr Yan’s best weapon against Figgy. The former has fought in best of five battles in five out of his past seven matchups. Deiveson, meanwhile, has not gone the full five rounds since January 2022.
Still, we find ourselves valuing Yan’s versatility more than his recent experience. Both fighters are solid strikers. And they each have an adequate wrestling armory. But Yan is far more efficient in latter positions. Not only is he landing 51 percent of his takedown attempts; he’s thwarting a whopping 85 percent of opponent takedown attempts.
So, even if Figgy succeeds in lowering Yan’s striking volume, he will struggle to shut down the latter’s entire package.
UFC Macau Picks Figueiredo vs Yan
A lot of people are penciling Yan in for an easy victory over Figgy. Most online sportsbooks in the USA have him as a 3-to-1 or heavier favorite. This feels like a market overcorrection more than anything else. After all, even if you believe Yan is the more well-rounded fighter, Figgy is currently tearing through the Bantamweight division.
And yet, we cannot get past the discrepancies in their ground games. While Figgy has good technique when wrestling, he is still landing just 35 percent of his takedown attempts. Misses against Yan are not going to end for him. He could find himself on the wrong end of a submission if he whiffs in the scenario. Especially given that opponents land just 15 percent of their takedown attempts versus Yan.
Figgy can perhaps generate more power on his combinations off his feet. Yan has not bagged a knockout since his match versus Jose Aldo at UFC 251 in July 2020. But Figgy does not pack write-home power himself.
In the end, it feels like this UFC Macau headlining showdown will come down to who checks more boxes. There will not be a one-shot or single-maneuver that ends it early. We expect it will go the distance. And although we do not love Yan’s odds as a value, we struggle to make the cast that Figgy has the technical depth to win his fourth fight in a row.
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