UFC Fight Night Picks, Burns vs. Brady Best Bets

What: UFC Brady vs. Burns Main Event
Who: Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady
Date: Saturday, September 7, 2024
Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada
Time: Prelims (4:00 p.m. ET), Main Card (7:00 p.m. ET), C0-Main (around 10:15 p.m. ET)
How to Watch: Prelims (ESPN+) Main Card (ESPN+), Main Event (ESPN+)

UFC 306 draws ever closer fight fans! Naturally, we head right into the main event on Saturday night from Las Vegas. Next, UFC Brady vs. Burns Night takes place at the UFC Apex. Naturally, the main event of the. ESPN+ card features Gilbert Burns and Sean Brady from the Welterweight Division. Again, the age difference is focused on straight away. Burns is 38 with Brady at just 31 years old. Best UFC Fight Night bets believe this fight tilts more towards Brady based on form as well.

Sean Brady, the younger fighter, (16-1, 3 KO, 5 Submissions) has won six of his first seven bouts in the UFC. The Orthodox Welterweight lost to Belal Muhammad. He has fought at 170 pounds since his days as a CFFC fighter (Cage Fury). Do not expect that to change anytime soon.

Gilbert Burns (22-7) has gone 2-3 in his previous five contests. The last two fights were a beating from Belal Muhammad and then Jack Della Maddalena bludgeoned the fighter until a barrage of knees and punches finished Burns off. Since his title shot, the Brazilian has slowly dropped in the UFC Welterweight Rankings (now sixth).

What are a few best bets for the Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady bout on this UFC On ESPN+ card? Alright, scope out these top UFC betting online 2024 sites where you can locate the best odds on these Saturday UFC fights.

UFC On ESPN Co-Main: Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady Betting Picks

UFC ESPN+ Main
Gilbert Burns	+155	+150	+165
Sean Brady	-185	-190	-200

Best UFC Fight Night Bets: Gilbert Burns Betting Analysis

Yes, the Best UFC Fight Night Bets see the underdog as the fighter who is higher-ranked in his weight class. Betting analysis seems to favor Gilbert Burns' opponent for several reasons. His experience in five-round main events may be the one true advantage that the Brazilian has on Saturday night. Burns has gone the distance twice in five-round bouts. Sean Brady has not once.

Now, the Brazilian could just go off into the sunset and retire. However, the older brother of Herbert Burns can still fight and grapple with the best of them. Burns possesses an attack with a solid 71-inch reach. He will make fight weight at 170 pounds easily. The key for Burns will be stamina. He has to tire out Brady in order to have a chance in the main event.

Rounds 4 and 5 will likely be where Burns has to make his mark. Remember it is expected that Brady will come hard at the older fighter in Rounds 1-3. After all, Brady will want to go for the signature win. The Brazilian must be smart and not fall into any traps from the American. That will be difficult. However, the experience and craftiness of Burns could get underestimated.

What is the best way to bet here? Okay, the underdog winning by decision should be a hair better than the Moneyline number of +165. Early projections were suggesting around +200 to +225. BetOnline has the Moneyline at +225 here. Let us take that bet.

Gilbert Burns To win by decision over Sean Brady

+225

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UFC Fight Night On ESPN+: Sean Brady Betting Picks

Sean Brady guarantees a win on Saturday night. That is not all bravado because the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania native believes he has learned his lesson from the Belal Muhammad fight. This is a fighter who bounced back with a masterful submission (kimura) against Kevin Gastelum midway into the third round. Brady's 72-inch reach is not a big advantage but his knack of landing significant strikes at higher rates could be. So, the Best UFC Fight Night Bets focus on bets outside the Moneyline for Brady.

Also, takedown rates and accuracy are solid for Brady. Currently, Brady ranks eighth among Welterweights but he could move into the Top 5 with another Performance Of The Night. That is partially what the American is aiming for here. Brady wants to make a splash without getting caught like he did versus Muhammad. Being smart and changing up his attack could be vital in a bout like this.

Numbers for Brady to win by KO/TKO/Submission were around EVEN to +125. It may prove smart to take a look at the option. Among the sportsbooks, a decision is around -125 or so. That number could move too. Brady might have incentive to end the fight earlier since he has never gone five rounds in this main event scenario.

Sean Brady To win Saturday by KO/TKO/Submission

+125

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Best UFC Fight Night Bets – Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady

While not all of the Best UFC Fight Night Bets have been released, there are some numbers to consider. This bout should see some good bouts of action as again, the onus is more on Brady to carry the pace of the fight. Again, the younger UFC fighter needs to show he can take those next steps. This is all balanced with him knowing he cannot get tagged like he did against Muhammad.

Going the distance here will likely be EVEN at best. More than likely, this trends into the -125 to -150 territory. The problems becomes trying to guess when does Brady start to get the upper hand in the bout. If one believes he does this sooner, the fight might end sooner.

Betting on Brady by KO/TKO/Submission in Round 2 might be far off. However, it might not be if Brady gets a few takedowns and combinations in quickly enough. The American has an array of submission moves along with some fierce power.

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