Can Erin Blanchfield rebound from a decision loss to Manon Fiorot back in March? Or will Rose Namajunas extend her current winning streak to three matches? We’ll have our answer at UFC Fight Night 246.
- What: UFC Fight Night 246 (UFC on ESPN+ 104
- When: Saturday, November 2, 2024
- Start Time: 4 p.m. EST (preliminary bouts), 7 p.m. EST (main card)
- Where: Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
- Venue: Rogers Place
- Where to Watch: ESPN+ (subscription required)
- Main Event: Brandon Moreno vs. Amir Albazi
After struggling to close out the calendar years in 2022 and 2023, Namajunas is having a 2024 remember. She enters the latest UFC Fight Night with a 14-6-0 overall record and a much improved striking defense. Blanchfield, meanwhile, sports a 12-2-0 record. But on the heels of an extended winning streak, she suffered a decision loss to Manon Fioro back in February that has many wondering whether she is no longer on the ascent.
UFC Fight Night 246 Co-Main Event: Erin Blanchfield vs Rose Namajunas Betting Lines
Linemakers do not appear worried by Blanchfield’s most recent loss. She is opening as the UFC Fight Night 246 favorite against Namajunas. You can see the latest online UFC betting odds for this matchup below:
As usual, please remember to keep refreshing these UFC Fight Night 246 betting lines right up until you actually place your wager. Our UFC betting odds are accurate entering Monday, October 28. This gives the best online UFC betting sites more than enough time to continue adjusting lines depending on how the pre-bell action shakes out.
Granted, to this point, we have not seen a ton of movement in Namajunas vs. Blanchfield. We have seen Namajunas climb as high as +115 in some instances, but we have yet to find any oddsmakers offering her as the favorite or at an even money payout.
Is that the right decision? Or should we actually be on the lookout for Blanchfield to suffer her second consecutive loss on the UFC circuit?
The Case for Erin Blanchfield to Beat Rose Namajunas
Many of the top online sportsbooks in the United States began falling in love with Erin Blanchfield (-145) by the end of 2021. That is when she started entering matches as a regularly decided favorite.
For so long, she made good on that trend. Her crowning achievement is probably the victory she secured by submission at UFC 281 over Molly McCann. She also took down Jessica Andrade, again by submission, at UFC Fight Night in February 2023.
Defense rules the day when it comes to Blanchfield’s style. She thwarts 81 percent of all takedown attempts and deflects 58 percent of all striking attempts. Critics tend to focus on her offense, which can lack accuracy and consistency. She is converting just 33 percent of her own takedown attempts, and her striking precision checks in a hair below average, at 45 percent.
Still, the stamina and maneuverability of Blanchfield is truly impressive. Though she thrives when putting opponents on the mat and getting them to tap out early, she has shown on plenty of occasions that she can go the distance. And while many are concerned about the striking performance against Fiorot, Namajunas isn’t nearly as broad-bodied. She won’t as easily absorb the power expended by Blanchfield.
The Case for Rose Namajunas to Beat Erin Blanchfield
Many had Rose Namajunas (+125) ticketed for a downswing following her own loss to Fiorot at a UFC Fight Night in September 2023. But she has since rebounded with multiple victories this past calendar. Back in March, she won by decision against Amanda Ribas. Then, in July, she picked up another decision victory over Tracy Cortez.
Yet, the quicker turnaround has many a tad concerned. Blanchfield has not fought in roughly seven months. Namajunas is dealing with less than a four-month break. Given the decline in her striking accuracy, and the fact that the past five of her matches have gone to a decision, it is fair to wonder whether she might be more susceptible to a quicker elimination this coming Saturday.
We are not too concerned, though. Stamina has been a calling card for Namajunas basically since she first entered the octagon. She has also shored up a few of the holes in her technique since she went on a two-match losing streak.
If her past two performances are any indication, Namajunas’ power may be on the decline, but her versatility and IQ are crescendoing into a fever pitch.
UFC Fight Night 246 Picks for Namajunas vs Blanchfield
Most of the action for UFC Fight Night 246 continues to gravitate toward Blanchield. We are going the other direction anyway.
Blanchfield’s striking versus Fiorot has us genuinely concerned. The size of her opponent should not have so thoroughly impacted her accuracy.
What’s more, we believe people are over-sensationalizing the struggles of Namajunas’ own striking. She has been far more accurate since her own loss against Fiorot. And at that time, mind you, she was attempting to labor through a busted hand.
Make no mistake, the quicker turnaround is worth noting. But we don’t see Namajunas or her camp going this route if she’s not fully healthy. The combination of her superior striking defense and an undervalued arsenal of combos on offense should let her eke out an upset victory by decision.
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