Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena will be the headlining fight at UFC 315 this upcoming May 12. And yes, the Welterweight Championship is on the line.
Who will emerge victorious as the UFC heads to Canada for the eighth time—and the first since UFC 186 all the way back in April 2015? Let’s find out.
- What: UFC 315
- When: Saturday, May 10, 2025
- Start Time: 7 p.m. EST (preliminary bouts), 10 p.m. EST (main card)
- Where: Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- Venue: Bell Centre
- Where to Watch: ESPN+ (subscription required)
- Main Event: Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena
Muhammad will arrive at UFC 315 with a lifetime record of 24-3-0 (one no-contest) and while on quite the winning streak. The 36-year-old, affectionately known as “Remember The Name,” has won each of his past six fights. And because he finished with a no-contest versus Leon Edwards back in March 2021, he actually hasn’t picked up a loss since he fell to Geoff Neal back in January 2019. That means he has not suffered a true letdown in more than six years!
During Muhammad’s last fight, at UFC 304, he won the Welterweight Belt from the same Leon Edward he took to a no-contest four years ago. His victory came by unanimous decision after he won the striking battle by 21 (68-47) and completed nine takedowns to Edwards’ two takedowns.
As for Maddalena, also known as “JDM,” he comes to UFC 315 with an overall record of 17-2-0. He, too, is working on an extensive winning streak. In fact, he has yet to suffer a loss since making his UFC debut during Dana White’s championship series back in 2021. Over this span, the 28-year-old has racked up an additional eight victories, including five by knockout (four) or submission (one).
Maddalena’s most recent fight came against Gilbert Burns at UFC 299 in March 2024. He dominated the striking battle, 67-27, before picking up the knockout victory by punches just before the four-minute mark of Round 3.
UFC 315 Main Event: Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena Betting Lines
This UFC 315 main event showdown marks the first title shot for Jack Della Maddalena. Typically, the latest online UFC betting odds will favor the incumbent. Especially if they just earned their belt. This trend currently holds true for Belal Muhammad, as you can see below:
Please remember to keep double-checking these UFC 315 betting odds right up until you actually submit your wager. Our UFC 315 online betting odds are accurate entering Wednesday, March 25. This gives the best online UFC betting sites more than enough time to make adjustments ahead of the opening bell on Saturday, May 12.
For this fight, specifically, you will want to brace for major changes. Not only are we more than one month out from the matchup, but the lines are close enough to encourage movement. For example, Muhammad recently said he plans to “outbox” Maddalena rather than overwhelm him with takedowns. The UFC 315 betting lines have since moved even further in his favor.
The Case for Belal Muhammad to beat Jack Della Maddalena
Muhammad is known as one of the best takedown artists in the UFC. He is averaging 2.28 successful takedowns per 15 minutes and has the coordination and smarts to turn just about every matchup into a ground game.
Now, Maddalena just so happens to be one of the UFC’s best takedown defenders. Entering this fight, opponents are landing just 30 percent of their takedown attempts when facing him. That could be problematic for Muhammad.
Yet, the latter wasn’t blowing smoke when he said that he plans to “outbox” JDM. His combinations have improved a great deal over the years. For his career, he’s averaging just 4.39 significant strikes landed per minute. However, over his past two bouts, Muhammad is averaging over six significant strikes landed per minute.
Adding that variance to his arsenal should better equip him to mix it up against JDM. And that, in turn, gives him a pretty good chance of retaining his Welterweight Division crown.
The Case for Jack Della Maddalena to Beat Belal Muhammad
Maddalena has emerged as one of the top defensive fighters of this division. We already mentioned his takedown prevention. But he is also allowing opponents to land just 34 percent of their striking attempts. That is well below the UFC average of 47 percent.
Moreover, while Muhammad has expanded his striking armory, JDM is clearly the superior puncher. Never mind the sheer number of knockouts he’s rattled off. His 6.74 significant strikes landed per minute are beyond high.
Of course, this number has dipped over his past two fights. It is instead hovering around six strikes per minute. But that is more than enough speed (and precision) to go up against Muhammad, who isn’t nearly as sturdy at striking defense.
UFC 315 Picks for Muhammad vs. Maddalena
Seldom do we disagree so strongly with odds from the best UFC apps. Muhammad vs. Maddalena is an exception.
Billing Muhammad as a semi-heavy favorite is surprising. Yes, these betting lines for UFC 315 are reflective of public action on the current champ. That is usually the case so far out from championship matches.
Stylistically, though, this does not feel like a sure thing for Muhammad. JDM is better out of the pocket than anyone the champ has faced over the past few years. Given how skilled JDM is at defending against some of Muhammad’s strengths, we believe the stage is set for a significant upset—and a new UFC Welterweight champion.
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