Yet another high-profile featherweight matchup has made its way onto the UFC 314 fight card. Yair Rodriguez vs. Patricio Pitbull is joining the UFC 314 main event of Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes as well as Jean Silva vs. Bryce Mitchell to complete the trio of marquee featherweight matchups.
Our mission here: to determine the winner in Rodriguez vs. Pitbull
- What: UFC 314
- When: Saturday, April 12, 2025
- Start Time: 7 p.m. EST (preliminary bouts), 10 p.m. EST (main card)
- Where: Miami, Florida
- Venue: Kaseya Center
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
- Main Event: Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes
Rodriguez arrives at UFC 314 with an overall record of 16-5-0 (one no-contest). However, the 32-year-old has dropped each of his past two fights. His most recent fight also took place over one year ago. He lost to Brian Ortega by submission during a February 2024 Fight Night. Before that, he fell to Alexander Volkanovski at the main event of UFC 290, losing by knockout near the end of the third round.
This put Rodriguez’s last victory at UFC 284…all the way back in February 2023. He fought Josh Emmett and won by triangle submission near the end of the second round. The one they call El Pantera is looking to rejoin the winner ranks for the first time in more than two years.
Pitbull, meanwhile, will be making his UFC debut in Miami on April 12. Patricio Freire (his real name), is among the oldest fighters to make his inaugural appearance at a UFC event. He turned 37 this past July.
Many believe that a victory here could put Pitbull on course to challenge for the featherweight title. Incidentally, this belt will be on the line in Volkanovski vs. Lopes. But before Pitbull can set his sights on a title, he first needs to get past Rodriguez.
UFC 314 Betting Lines: Yair Rodriguez vs. Patricio Pitbull
With Pitbull new to the UFC fold, you might assume that Rodriguez enters UFC 314 as the heavy favorite. This is only partially true. As the latest online UFC betting odds show below, Rodriguez is the favorite, but he is not enjoying a heavy advantage:
Remember to keep double-checking these UFC 314 betting odds right up until you actually submit your wager. Our UFC 314 online betting lines are accurate entering Tuesday, March 17. This gives the best online UFC betting sites more than enough time to make adjustments ahead of the opening bell on Saturday, April 12.
In this case, we advise you to expect a bunch of Pitbull vs. Rodriguez betting line movement. Fights with athletes making their UFC debut can be subject to more turbulent swings. In this case, as UFC 314 approaches, the mystique of Pitbull’s first UFC fight could lead to longer or shorter odds.
The Case for Yair Rodriguez to Beat Patricio “Pitbull” Freire
Even though Rodriguez is working through a rough patch, his vertical stamina remains otherworldly. The 4.65 significant strikes he lands per minute are nearly double that of Pitbull, who comes in at 2.84.
Granted, Rodriguez’s accuracy can be all over the place. But that’s a symptom of his death by a thousand cuts approach. He often gets off more than 10 significant strikes per minute.
That amount of volume can disarm opponents in one of two ways. Either Rodriguez connects, in which case another blow may be just around the corner, or he overwhelms rivals with the sheer amount of cardio hoops through which he forces opponents to jump.
Of course, Pitbull is no stranger to extreme cardio sessions of his own. He comes over from the Bellator/PFL having been known for his stamina.
Whether it’s on the same level as Rodriguez’s is a separate matter.
The Case for Patricio “Pitbull” Freire to Beat Yair Rodriguez
Many are worrying that this is too touch of a matchup for Pitbull in his UFC debut. While they may have a point, Pitbull does not exactly have much time to waste. He is 37. If he wants to actualize getting a title shot, he needs to embrace baptism by fire rather than gradually work his way up the rankings.
Still, despite losing two straight matches, Rodriguez remains the fifth ranked featherweight fighter with The Company. He also continues to pack one heck of a fastball. When he’s on, he can overwhelm opponents with an absurd amount of striking volume.
None of which is meant to imply that Pitbull cannot win. The Brazilian is known for his own striking power. It would not be a surprise to see him knockout Rodriguez in an earlier round. Sure, he can go a little wide on his upper cuts. When he connects, though, Pitbull is devastating from just about every imaginable angle.
UFC 314 Picks for Rodriguez vs Pitbull
Before we get to our prediction, let us first say that the current Yair Rodriguez vs. Patricio Pitbull betting lines feel about right. This should be a closer fight than many currently think. It will not be an easy victory for Rodriguez.
Yet, with this in mind, we are still picking Rodriguez to fend off Pitbull. We are somewhat worried about how his striking defense will hold up against Pitbull’s power. But not nearly as concerned as we are about the difference in previous fights between the two.
Yes, Rodriguez is coming off two losses. But his opponents, Brian Ortega and Alexander Volkanovski, are among the best in the business. He also has experience beating someone like Ortega, who he knocked out back in July 2022.
If we had to guess, this fight will make it to a decision. That is all the more reason to favor Rodriguez. Pitbull may have a couple of advantages coming into the fight. Stamina isn’t one of them.
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