Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett is officially set as the co-main event at UFC 314x, just behind the highly anticipated Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes featherweight title matchup. The latest UFC 314 betting lines are clearly struggling to decide between Chandler and Pimblett as the favorite. Does that mean we are in for an instant classic?
Our mission is to find out.
- What: UFC 314
- When: Saturday, April 12, 2025
- Start Time: 7 p.m. EST (preliminary bouts), 10 p.m. EST (main card)
- Where: Miami, Florida
- Venue: Kaseya Center
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
- Main Event: Volkanovski vs Lopes
The 38-year-old Michael Chandler arrives at UFC 314 with a lifetime record of 23-9-0 but is currently navigating perhaps the roughest stretch of his career. With just one victory over his past five fights, it is not a stretch to say that he’s got headlining and co-headlining status on the line against a 30-year-old Paddy Pimblett.
Most recently, Chandler fell to Charles Oliveira at UFC 309 in November. Though he went the full five rounds, his inability to fend off Oliveira’s takedowns ultimately did him in. Before that, meanwhile, Chandler lost to Dustin Poirier at UFC 281 in November 2022. Because of the two-year layoff in-between losses, Chandler has not won a fight since May 2022, when he knocked out Tony Ferguson at UFC 274.
Pimblett enters UFC 314 with an overall record of 22-3-0. His last six fights have all ended with a victory, and four of those wins have come by submission (three) or knock out (one).
While Pimblett does not have a title shot under his belt, he has steadily worked his way up the UFC Lightweight rankings. In his most recent victory, he beat King Green by submission at UFC 304. And before that, he clobbered Ferguson at UFC 296 by unanimous decision, winning the striking battle 106-62.
UFC 314 Main Event: Michael Chandler vs Paddy Pimblett Betting
Recent events suggest that Paddy Pimblett should be heavily favored to beat the struggling Michael Chandler. The latest online UFC betting odds, however, do necessarily subscribe to this sentiment. Pimblett is the odds-on favorite, but only slightly, as you can see below:
Please remember to keep double-checking UFC 314 betting odds right up until you actually submit your wager. Our UFC 314 online betting lines are accurate entering Tuesday, March 11. This gives the best online UFC betting sites more than enough time to make adjustments ahead of the opening bell on April 12.
Don’t be surprised if there is some movement in Chandler vs. Pimblett, either. Although Chandler looks worse for wear at the moment, the level of competition he’s faced over the past few years is materially higher than Pimblett’s collection of opponents. This has likely helped keep Chandler’s underdog odds shorter, and that makes the overall Pimblett vs. Chandler betting lines subject to more potential turbulence.
The Case for Michael Chandler to Beat Paddy Pimblett
Michael Chandler said he likes this fight “stylistically” for himself. It isn’t hard to see why.
For the better part of a half-decade, Chandler has spent time punching at or above his metaphorical. Just look at his past six matchups:
- Michael Chandler vs. Charles Oliveira (November 2024): Loss by unanimous decision
- Michael Chandler vs. Dustin Poirier (November 2022): Loss by submission in Round 3
- Michael Chandler vs. Tony Terfuson (May 2022): Victory by knockout in Round 2
- Michael Chandler vs. Justin Gaethje (November 2021): Loss by unanimous decision
- Michael Chandler vs. Charles Oliveira (May 2021): Loss by knockout in Round 2
- Michael Chandler vs. Dan Hoooker (January 2021): Victory by knockout in Round 1
Even with Pimblett on a scorching-hot stretch, he represents a step down in the level of competition. If nothing else, this should give Chandler a chance to comfortably win the striking battle, which he’s struggled to do during this stretch.
The Case for Paddy Pimblett to Beat Michael Chandler
Fans and analysts are excited to see Pimblett get a shot to fight up. His performances against everyone else continue to verge on dominant.
This fight also provides an opportunity for Pimblett to show he understands how to handle five-round settings. Even if this doesn’t go the distance, he must decide between pacing himself in the early stages versus conserving energy and power on the off chance he must fight the full 25 minutes.
Coming out aggressively feels like the right blueprint for Pimblett. He is substantially younger, so stamina should not be a huge issue. Plus, it is not like Chandler has spent a ton of time in the octagon over the past few years. His second loss to Oliveira was his first UFC fight since 2022.
If this match does end up tracking towards five rounds, Pimblett will need to prioritize takedown defense. He does a nice job warding off strikes from pretty much every angle, but opponents are landing a whopping 48 percent of their takedown attempts against him.
UFC 314 Picks for Chandler vs Pimblett
It is interesting that Pimblett enters as the favorite over Chandler. Indeed, Chandler’s recent rough patch and limited reps over the past few years should matter. But Pimblett has not faced anyone remotely in his class.
Granted, we see the overall appeal for Pimblett. He has increased his fighting IQ a great deal over his recent run of matches.
Still, Chandler looms as the more well-rounded package. His wrestling is better, he has more experience navigating five-round settings, and there will be more power packed behind his later-round striking attempts.
If Pimblett is going to pull this off, he’ll have to overwhelm Chandler in the striking department. It is not out of the question. Chandler’s defense can get shaky. But he has more overall counters in his arsenal. That will make all the difference.
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