What could be better than one high-end lightweight bout on the UFC 313 fight card? How about two of them?
Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Jalin Turner joins Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev as the two headlining lightweight matchups on the UFC 313 main card. Early betting action on Bahamondes vs. Turner has featured a lot of push and pull. It is now on us, together, to make sense of it all.
- What: UFC 313
- When: Saturday, March 8, 2025
- Start Time: 7 p.m. EST (preliminary bouts), 10 p.m. EST (main card)
- Where: Paradise, Nevada
- Venue: T-Mobile Arena
- Where to Watch: ESPN+ (subscription required)
- Main Event: Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev
Bahamondes enters UFC 313 with an overall record of 16-5-0 and having won five of his last six bouts, including each of his past two. Most recently, he beat Manuel Torres by knockout (with a punch) a little more than four minutes into Round 1 of a September 2024 Fight Night showdown. Before that, at an April 2024 Fight Night, he also took down Christos Giago by knockout (with a kick) just over three-and-a-half minutes into Round 1.
Of note: Each of Bahamondes’ past five victories have come by submission or knockout. On the two occasions he’s reached a decision since November 20202, he picked up losses, first to John Makdessi in April 2021 and then to Ludovit Klein in August 2023.
Turner, meanwhile, comes to UFC 313 with a lifetime record of 14-8-0. HIs resume has hit a bit of a rough patch over the past two years. During this time, he has dropped three of four scheduled fights. His latest loss came during UFC 300 in April 2024, at the hands of Renato Moicano, shock knocked him out (with a punch) four minutes and 11 seconds into Round 2.
Prior to UFC 300, Turner had not stepped inside the octagon since a December 2023 Fight Night. He won that matchup against King Green fewer than three minutes into Round 1.
UFC 313 Lightweight Bout: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Jalin Turner Betting Lines
The Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Jalin Turner betting lines have experienced some turbulence since the open. A chance to the UFC 313 main fight card is likely the reason why. Dan Hooker was removed from his matchup with Justin Gaethje. Though Hooker has since been replaced by Rafael Fiziev in the co-main event, this change still culminated in an influx of action on Turner vs. Bahamondes.
As of now, the latest online UFC betting odds appear to have settled. You can see for yourself below:
Remember to double-check these UFC 313 betting odds right up until you actually submit your wager. Our UFC 313 online betting lines are accurate entering Thursday, March 6. This gives the best online UFC betting sites more than enough time to make adjustments ahead of the opening bell on March 8.
For now, Bahamondes vs. Turner betting odds have the former billed as the favorite. We do not expect that to change, but the lines are short enough that they could be subject to some 11th-hour seesawing.
The Case for Ignacio Bahamondes to Beat Jalin Turner
The striking of Bahamondes is proving to be a blur. He is averaging 7.17 significant strikes landed per minute, at around UFC-average accuracy.
This speed at which he operates cannot be overstated. It can come with ebbs and flows in efficiency, but there’s no arguing with the overall results. In his four-minute knockout of Torres, he landed 31 strikes. And in his 3.5-minute knockout of Giagos, he racked up a whopping 40 strikes.
Opponents who are able to slow him down and block his combinations can throw Bahamondes for a stylistic whirl. But that is not Turner’s forte. Opposing fighters are landing 59 percent of their striking attempts against him, an absurdly high number.
The Case for Jalin Turner to Beat Ignacio Bahamondes
A lot of analysts and fans went into this fight picking Turner to beat Bahamondes. The former is not as quick twitch, but he packs more power and has faced stiffer competition on his overall resume.
That could end up mattering a great deal. Many consider this matchup too much of a “reach up” for the 23-year-old Bahamondes.
Turner has the deeper overall armory, including when it comes to wrestling tactics, although neither fighter relies on those a great deal. Better submissive maneuvers will go a long way for Turner, particularly if you do not expect this fight to go the distance.
In the end, this will come down to Turner’s strike absorption and defense. We have seen him turn it up defensively before. But his vertical evasion and blocking can skew inconsistent. If he’s able to bump off some of Bahamondes’ speed, he has the power, stamina and vertical killer instincts to pick up the victory.
UFC 313 Picks for Bahamondes vs Turner
Over the past couple of weeks or so, Turner has become a fairly popular underdog. Though we see the appeal, we cannot quite get there.
Ultimately, his striking defense is all over the place. That feels like a recipe for disaster against Bahamondes’ speed.
Perhaps we are undervaluing how much of a step up Bahamondes is taking. Many of Turner’s weak points have been exploited by better, more experienced fighters. That will not necessarily be the case here.
Still, Bahamondes’ striking is problematic for Turner even relative to higher-end standards. It would not shock us if his sheer volume overwhelms Turner long before the final round.
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