A heavy-hitting flyweight bout between Viviane Araujo and Karina Silva has hit the UFC 309 main card for this Saturday. While a semi-clear favorite has emerged, this is a fight many experts have said they could see going either way.
Who has the clear edge? That is what we are here to figure out!
- What: UFC 309
- When: Saturday, November 16, 2024
- Start Time: 7 p.m. EST (preliminary bouts), 10 p.m. EST (main card)
- Where: New York City, New York
- Venue: Madison Square Garden
- Where to Watch: ESPN+ (preliminary rounds; subscription required), Pay Per View (main event)
- Main Event: Stipe Miocic vs. Jon Jones
Viviane Araujo enters UFC 309 with an overall record of 12-6-0. Competing in the Flyweight division, she last fought Natalie Silva at a UFC Fight Night this past February. While she made it to a decision, she ultimately lost.
Karine Silva arrives at UFC 309 with a lifetime record of 18-4-0. She last fought Ariane de Silva in the headlining matchup at a UFC Fight Night in April. She emerged victorious by decision to keep what is now a five-fight winning streak alive.
UFC 309 Main Card: Viviane Araujo vs Karine Silva Betting Lines
When you look at the recent resumes of Araujo and Silva, you almost expect the latter to be a heavy favorite at UFC 309. However, that is not exactly the case. Silva has the edge, but the latest online UFC 309 betting odds do not paint her as a formality:
Please remember to continue rechecking these UFC 309 betting odds right up until you submit your picks. Our Viviane Araujo vs. Karine Silva betting lines are accurate entering Tuesday, November 12. This still gives the best online UFC betting sites tons of time to make adjustments ahead of the opening bell.
In this case, we recommend you brace for real movement. Line shifts are part and parcel of the lead-up to every UFC pay-per-view event. For this fight specifically, though, we have already seen some back-and-forth since the opening posts. This suggests many are undecided about who might win.
The Case for Viviane Araujo to Beat Karine Silva
Many have wondered whether the soon-to-be 38-year-old Viviane Araujo (+215) will have the stamina to keep up with Karine Silva (-255). To be honest, we find that somewhat laughable.
Indeed, Araujo has dropped three of her past four fights. But she has not lost by submission or knockout since at least 2019!
Evading Silva’s ever-improving wrestling skills and techniques will no doubt be a chore. Even in defeat, though, Araujo has not looked overwhelmingly slow.
If anything, we find ourselves more concerned with an over decline in power. But even that may be overstated. Araujo is landing about 4.1 significant strikes per minute at around a UFC-average clip. And as she has gone through more and more fights, you can see a material change in her defense. Opponents are finding it much harder to land takedowns and strikes even when they’re in a position to do so. Araujo’s orthodox fighting stance has evolved to make it harder for opponents to find both upper and lower body openings.
Believe it or not, then, the longer this fight lasts, the more it may benefit you Araujo.
The Case for Karine Silva to Beat Viviane Araujo
This is yet another UFC 309 matchup that could turn into a tale of the mat. Karine Silva, much like Bo Nickal in the men’s division, is among the most talented wrestlers in the sport.
Look no further than Silva’s most recent bouts as proof
- UFC Fight Night, April 2024: Silva wins by unanimous decision over Ariane da Silva
- UFC 292: Silva defeats Maryna Moroz by submission (Guillotine choke)
- UFC Fight Night, June 2023: Silva defeats Ketlen Souza by submission (lockout)
- UFC Fight Night, June 2022: Silva defeats Poliana Bothelho by submission (D’Arce choke)
- DWCS 5.9, October 2021: Silva defeats Yan Qihui by submission (Guillotine choke)
Of her past five fights, all of them wins, Silva has won by submission 80 percent of the time. Sure, we are working with a small sample. But that number is mind-melting anyway.
This is all to say, Araujo cannot let Silva get in her comfort zone. Her takedown defense is good, but Silva’s technique is better—wide-ranging and devastating.
UFC 309 Picks for Araujo vs Silva
To be completely blunt, we are a little surprised Silva isn’t the heavier favorite. Poking around the best online sportsbooks in the United States, we couldn’t find one that was offering her at even a -290. That’s pretty incredible.
This could be a nod to Araujo’s body of work from the past (as well as her overall stamina). It may also be an indictment of Silva’s striking. Silva is currently landing just 35 percent of her strikes, and she’s not the best at warding off combos.
Fortunately for her, Arajau isn’t packing the same degree of speed and power that she used to sport. And even if she is, Silva’s wrestling ability is beyond comprehension.
This isn’t a matter of how good she has gotten at taking down opponents. Though, a ridiculous 72 percent of her takedown attempts are successful. It is more so about Silva’s ability to dictate the style of every match. You could be the best vertical fighter in the world. It won’t matter. She will find a way to bring it to the mat. And look, when she does, she almost always wins. UFC 309 will be no different.
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