Estimates Show Texas Sports Betting Could Be Most Lucrative Market In The United States

Does the Texas sports betting market stand to be the most lucrative in the United States? 

A new study suggests it just might be.

Granted, it is difficult to prove the accuracy of any estimations when sports betting in Texas remains illegal. Even if that changes this year (more on this later), it will take some time to establish and sort through the data. After all, we cannot base the unofficial “most lucrative market in the United States” designation off just one or even two years of returns. This is a long-game proposition.

Still, the exact estimates—which we will also dig into shortly—are nevertheless a pretty big deal. While Texas has the second largest population in the USA, according to StatsAmerica.org, its prospective gambling market often cedes ground to sports betting in New York or the eventual legalization of sports betting in California. Some even believe sports betting in Florida could prove more lucrative, assuming its operations ever expand.

But will it really be The Empire State and The Golden State and The Sunshine State that trail The Lone Star State? Again, it is tough to say when two of these markets have yet to legalize sports betting (Texas and California) while another offers it on a limited basis (Florida). However, the latest data intimates the Texas sports betting market is an even bigger goldmine than many already think.

Legal Texas Sports Betting May Be Worth Over $350 Million Per Year In Additional Tax Revue

Using baselines for Texas online sports betting login attempts as well as unregulated wagering in The Lone Star State, a handful of recent projections paint a staggering picture of the market’s size. Here is Jamil David of Chron.com with more insight:

“The public has a major demand for sports betting, and power brokers like the [Texas Sports Betting Alliance] want to benefit from the increased revenue legal sports betting would bring Texas. According to the American Gaming Association, Texans spent an estimated $6 billion annually on unregulated sports betting in 2022. According to an estimate by Eilers & Krejcik Gaming, if sports betting were regulated, Texas could earn more than $360 million in direct taxes each year. According to a recent industry forecast, the Lone Star State may be the most profitable online sports betting market in the U.S. An estimated $32.1 billion is handled annually. GeoComply recorded more than 1.48 million attempts to visit legal sportsbooks from Texas in November 2024, an 87 percent increase over November 2023.”

This data is pretty comprehensive—and, more importantly, convincing. 

The $32.1 billion Texas sports betting handle is particularly significant. It blows the current largest number from the New York sports betting market out of the water. In 2023, The Empire State Accepted $19.2 billion in total wagers. The numbers for the 2024 New York sports betting handle were only recently finalized. According to Sportsbook Review, The Empire State accepted around $22.7 billion in total wagers. 

That is an 18.2 percent increase year over year. And it is still a ways off from the above Texas projections, which are more than 67 percent higher.

Can Sports Betting Projections In Unregulated Markets Be Trusted?

Skepticism is a healthy default whenever you see an estimate topple the current standard-bearer by such a large margin. Texas sports betting projections are no different.

There is no way to exactly measure how much Texans spend on sports betting each year right now. Offshore online betting sites are not regulated by the United States. Login attempts also cannot be equated to an exact amount of prospective money spent. And on top of that, it’s impossible to accurately track how much money residents bet on sports through other states. 

This is all to say: The $32.1 billion handle—and $360 million in annual tax revenue—should be taken with a metric ton of salt. But this does not mean it is wrong. 

Two factors stand to drive Texas sports betting head and shoulders above every other market. First and foremost, the state is home to plenty of sports teams. Twelve franchises across all five major North American sports leagues (NHL, NBA, NFL, MLB, WNBA) are located in The Lone Star State. Beyond that, they have a handful of robust college football and basketball programs. Both New York and California, Texas’ primary competition, cannot say the same across both sports. 

What’s more, a $32.1 billion handle isn’t so far fetched when you look at The Lone Star State’s total population. Texas counts 57 percent more residents than New York. That gives it the potential to outstrip The Empire State by jaw-dropping margins like this one.

The Future of Sports Betting in Texas Remains Murky 

Of course, the only way to see where Texas sports betting truly stands is by legalizing it. As of now, even with online sports betting in the United States more popular than ever, the immediate outlook for The Lone Star State isn’t great.

Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick has repeatedly stated there isn’t enough support in the Senate to push the issue. Many are skeptical he would allow it even if it was a priority. And yet, many others think Mr. Patrick would change his tune if more GOP members come out in support of sports betting.

In some ways, this may already be underway. As Chron.com notes: “Former Texas Secretary of State John Scott, who was Gov. Greg Abbott's deputy attorney general for over a year, is currently the spokesperson for the Sports Betting Alliance.” 

Even with the necessary support, the road to Texas sports betting may remain long and winding. Many think casino legalization in Texas must happen first. Others believe there are too many concerns—political, ethical, religious—for the state to overcome any time soon.

Beyond that, even the shortest timeline puts sports betting years away. Let’s say a sports betting bill passes in 2025. It will likely need to be on the 2026 electoral ballot. Assuming it again passes, the Texas sports betting launch may not come before 2027 or even 2028.

If and when it does launch, will The Lone Star State be the most lucrative market around? Only time, and lots of it, will tell.

Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can find one that works for all of your sports betting needs: