Don’t Expect Texas Sports Betting Legalization in 2025

If you are holding out hope for movement on the Texas sports betting front in 2025, you are not alone.

You also may want to brace yourself for disappointment.

This is what we gather from recent comments made by Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick. While he is often portrayed as the primary roadblock to sports betting in Texas, he has repeatedly said its failure is the result of a lack of support inside sentiment. During an appearance earlier this month on WFAA podcast Y’all-tics, he reiterated these same sentiments.

“I might have three or four Senators out of 20 Republicans who support it, that’s it,” Patrick says, as transcribed by PlayTexas’ Dan Holmes. “They say, ‘Oh, we almost passed [a casino bill] last session.’ You know, they almost passed it with every Democrat voting for it and about one of four Republicans voting for it. We don’t do that in the Senate.”

This does not paint a rosy picture for Texas sports betting entering 2025. In fact, it may speak to a bleaker timeline than many hope.

Texas Sports Betting May Need to be Driven Entirely by Republicans

Patrick doubles down on his comments later in the discussion. In doing so, he essentially confirms what many have suspected and outright said: He has no interest in backing anything sponsored by the Democratic party.

“The difference between the Senate and the House is we don’t let the Democrats run the Senate,” he explains. “We know how to work across the aisle without ceding power to the other side to let them run the Senate like [House Speaker] Dade [Phelan] lets Democrats run the House. We’re a Republican state.”

This is quite the stance. Patrick tries to couch his thoughts with his “work across the aisle” tidbit, but you can tell he does not really mean it.

Instead, this comes across as a very cookie-cutter, stubborn allegiance to the idea of one’s party. If Patrick was truly open to bi-partisan collaboration, he wouldn’t speak with such disdain for House Speaker Dade Phelan. Nor would he feel the need to emphasize that Texas is a Republican state.

Plus, his “work across the aisle” comments ring even hollower when you consider what happened last time. Representative Charlie Green helped lead the charge on a bill that would have legalized Texas sports betting. He is, notably, a Republican. It did not have an impact on Patrick’s refusal to bring it to the Senate.

To that end, it is not necessarily clear what it will take for Patrick to shift his stance. Is he perhaps simply against the concept of sports betting in the United States? Or does this really come down to needing a vast majority of Republican Senate members driving the metaphorical bus?

How Much Support Does Sports Betting in The Lone Star State Have Among the Republican Party?

For argument’s sake, let us assume Patrick is simply waiting on a stronger call for sports betting in The Lone Star State from his own party. How much does sentiment within the party need to change?

Patrick’s “one out of four” portrayal suggests there is a ton of ground to make up. He is both right and incorrect.

By his own admission, the last bill had around 28 out of 85 Republican House members on its side. That is a much larger hit rate than 25 percent he estimated. But it is also only 33 percent of Republican House members overall.

And if the approval rating among Republican Senate members is even lower, then…yeesh.

Policy stances can shift all the time. And it certainly helps that the Texas sports betting market profiles as one of the three to four most lucrative in the country. But if three-quarters of the Senate majority are not on sports with sports wagering, the expansion of gaming laws inside The Lone Star State has a loooong way to go.

Can Projected Texas Sports Betting Revenue Shift Lawmaker Sentiment?

Money has a way of inciting dramatic policy changes. And the projected revenue for Texas sports betting remains quite high. As Holmes writes: “According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Texas’s $2.7 trillion economy is the second-largest by gross domestic product in the US, behind California. It’s expected that legal sports betting in Texas would create one of the largest markets in North America.”

Go ahead and throw out the word “expected.” We know Texas sports betting will be a massive market. That is why top online sportsbooks in the United States continue to push for its legalization. The CEO of DraftKings is even hopeful Texas sports betting can make progress during the next round of legislative discussions. C-Suite executives do not tend to specifically comment on individual markets unless they have vast earning potential.

In Texas’ case, we are talking about billions of dollars. They have the second largest population in the country, according to StatsAmerican.org. Sports betting in New York, which features a population of 11 million fewer people, is currently averaging $84.2 million per month in tax revenue from gambling. If we apply Texas’ population to their average, The Lone Star State could be looking at $131 million in tax revenue each month. That comes out to nearly $1.6 billion per year.

To be clear, this isn’t a perfect analog. The legalization of Texas sports betting would have to include online wagering and match the New York sports betting tax rate, which checks in at roughly 50 percent. But neither of those are mega assumptions given the market size. Sportsbooks will likely pay a hefty tax to gain access.

Whether these dollar figures resonate with policymakers is a separate matter. They might not. After all, these projections are not breaking news. Texas lawmakers know how much money is at stake, which suggests opposition to sports betting is deeper seated. And as we know now, that opposition is also likely to continue through at least 2025.

Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can find one that works for all of your sports betting needs: