2023 FIFA Women World Cup Round of 16 Picks

The USA is no longer the favorite ahead of the World Cup Round of 16, but it still looks like the best pick as it bids to win a third consecutive World Cup.

Who do Bettors Favor?

According to the leading betting sites (and you can check out our top sportsbook reviews here) England is now the favorite with bettors to win the World Cup and is available at between +275 and +300. The USA and Spain are both priced at similar odds, with France and Japan rated at around +700 and +800 respectively in the World Cup Winner Futures market.

World Cup Winner
England	+300	+280	+275
USA	+425	+450	+450
Spain	+465	+450	+450
France	+750	+700	+700
Japan	+750	+800	+800
Netherlands	+1100	+1200	+1200
Australia	+1200	+1200	+1200
Sweden	+1800	+1675	+1600
Colombia	+3000	+3000	+2500

OSB World Cup Round of 16 Betting Briefing

The Round of 16 is the point at which the World Cup becomes a knockout competition, with extra time and penalties to settle those matches that finish level after normal time.

As is often the case in the World Cup, the initial Group Stage delivered its share of shocks and drama. The USA didn’t dominate as usual and finished second in its Group, and big guns Germany and Brazil were knocked out after they failed to make the top two in their Groups.

As a result, the top half of the draw looks much tougher than the bottom as the USA, Netherlands, Spain, Japan, and Sweden are all fighting for one spot in the final. In the lower half of the draw, Colombia’s success in winning its Group means that it is on course for a game against England in the quarter-finals, and that will not be an easy contest for the favorites.

USA is Underrated

England has moved ahead of the USA in the tournament futures market following its impressive Group stage performances in which it beat Denmark, Haiti and China, however, the price on an England tournament victory seems very short and the favorite doesn’t offer much value.

The 6-1 win over China was a great way to end its Group D fixtures, but the narrow victories over Denmark and Haiti were less impressive and it looks like bettors have overreacted to that single eye-catching score.

Of the other two short-priced favorites, Spain seems a poor option, after it lost spectacularly to Japan in the Group stage, and it now facing a tough road to the final, so at this point, the USA looks like a much better pick. The draw with Portugal that meant the USA finished second in its Group was disappointing, but Portugal is probably an underrated team that pushed the Netherlands very close and this was probably an unusually tough section for the USA to navigate.

The USA is still the best collection of players in the competition and early fears that it might be defensively weaker than in previous tournaments have proven unfounded. It has conceded only one goal in its three games so far, and it looks drastically underrated at its current odds.

Australia and Colombia Head the Field

Looking beyond the top three in the betting, there are several alternatives for World Cup success, and of these, France, Netherlands and Japan are attracting the most support. France has an easier draw, but although it beat Brazil and found the net six times against Panama, it also conceded four goals and that level of defensive vulnerability could prove costly when it comes to the knockout rounds, while Japan and the Netherlands will both have to play the USA before the final.

At a bigger price, Australia and Colombia look like better options. Australia lost to Nigeria, but it remains one of the strongest teams in the tournament and has home advantage, which could prove significant in the final minutes of hard-fought knock-out games. With Sam Kerr set to return to the lineup for the knockout game against Denmark, Australia will have a big boost and it definitely looks overpriced at these odds in the World Cup winners market.

Colombia’s defeat to Morocco in its last Group game is a big worry for fans, but that result followed solid wins against Germany and South Korea, and Colombia in any case finished on top of its Group. Much was expected from the team’s attacking lineup of Mayra Ramirez, Manuela Vanegas and Linda Caicedo and although the goals have not been flowing freely so far, there has been some impressive play, most notably from Caicedo, who has made a big impression at her first World Cup.

Crucially, the team looks strong in defense, conceding just two goals in its three games, which will give it a firm platform for the games ahead, and like Australia, it offers value in the market.

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