Philadelphia looks to maintain its near-perfect record as the Union takes on St. Louis this weekend. Only behind Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami on the Eastern Conference table, Philadelphia has scored a league-leading 11 goals but St. Louis are unbeaten through 4 games and have not allowed a goal. Which will prevail: the best offense in the MLS or the best defense in the MLS? Read on for an expert Philadelphia Union prediction and explore stats and tips for Philadelphia vs St. Louis.
- Philadelphia Union vs Saint Louis CITY SC
- March 22, 2025
- 7:30 PM EST
- Subaru Park, Chester, PA
- MLS Season Pass on Apple TV
Philadelphia Union Prediction: Odds from Top Online Sportsbooks
Philadelphia are favorites to snap St. Louis’ unbeaten run in domestic play and earn their 3rd win of the year. The Union are (+128) to win in regulation. A draw is lined at (+250). For St. Louis supporters, they can back their side at odds of (+220). That’s an implied probability to win of 31.3%, if you don’t account for juice.
Want to better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market? See our soccer betting tips and learn about top MLS betting sites.
Philadelphia Back for Vengeance After Missing Playoffs
Philadelphia was one of my favorite teams to back last year, especially during their Leagues Cup run. When their offense is clicking they seem unbeatable, and they have a plethora of youth talent to pull for a spark when it isn’t. 15-year-old Cavan Sullivan typically makes the headlines for his age. The teenager proved he belonged back on the big stage over the weekend with an excellent free kick against Red Bulls II. Meanwhile, his 2004-born older brother Quinn has assisted twice through 4 matches at the top level for the Union.
It was surprising to see Philadelphia miss out on the playoffs last season, but it appears unlikely they will meet the same fate in 2025. The club has garnered an unfortunate reputation for “choking” or “bottling it” in the big games. They have played in four major trophy finals, losing all four (3 U.S. Open Cups and one MLS Cup). Could this be the year the Union finally break their curse?
Their revenge mission begins this weekend, and they have a difficult situation at hand. Seven players will be reporting for international duty, leaving current Philly manager Bradley Carnell with some tough decisions to make. Andre Blake, Tai Baribo, Daniel Gazdag, Jesus Bueno, Danley Jean Jacques, Neil Pierre, and Frankie Westfield will all be unavailable for selection.
St. Louis Perfect Defense Through Four MLS Games in 2025
St. Louis’s defensive dominance puts them in an exciting position. Already through four games without conceding, another bagel on the scoresheet for their opponents would put them in exclusive territory. No MLS club has ever began a season with five consecutive clean sheets. If they manage 68 minutes of scoreless play, they will at least manage to break the scoreless minutes record.
Additionally, a similar result would make them the first MLS team to go unbeaten in the first five matches of their first 3 seasons. Already with half the win total they accrued in 2024, St. Louis supporters about their chances of returning to the MLS Cup Playoffs. An Eastern Conference regular season title in their curtain-raising season may have set the bar too high for future seasons, but 2024 was still disappointing. The club was one of the worst teams in the country on goal differential.
Philadelphia Union Prediction: Philadelphia vs St. Louis Betting Pick
Never have these two sides met before. St. Louis has only been on the scene in the MLS for two years. Now in their third year, this inaugural edition of their fixture with Philadelphia marks a monumental clash. Philadelphia boasts the highest-scoring offense in the league, making it a worthy opponent to St. Louis’s impregnable defense.
Despite their unfamiliarity on the scoresheet, there are plenty of social connections between these two clubs. Bradley Carnell was St. Louis’s first head coach, and former CITY SC player Indiana Vassilev now anchors Philadelphia’s midfield. Further highlighting the fraternity between Philadelphia and St. Louis is a kinship in the front office, as sporting directors Lutz Pfannenstiel and Ernst Tanner worked together at Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga.
Pleasantries aside, I am favoring goals in this match, at least from a betting perspective. St. Louis’s defense can only hold on to perfection for so long, and they will be tasked with a tough assignment away at Subaru Park. Stud Union goalkeeper Andre Blake will be playing for Jamaica. Plenty of rest for either side should also make for a higher-scoring affair, and my numbers agree.
My projections indicate over 3.5 goals should be set at (-119), yet we are getting a similar line at 2.75 goals. That’s 0.75 goals worth of value on the over, a tremendous amount of edge worth blindly betting alone. Considering the factors highlighted earlier, I think the over is a clear pick. Even if you think St. Louis will slow down Philadelphia, the Union will likely play at a high pace conducive to counter-attack opportunities for CITY SC on the other end.
Go with Over 2.75 goals at BetOnline, BetUS or BetNow, all posting a line of (-120) currently.
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