- Sporting CP vs KS Raków Częstochowa, UEFA Europa League
- October 26, 2023
- 12:45 PM EST
- ArcelorMittal Park, Sosnowiec, Poland
- Paramount+
Lisbon’s own Sporting CP visit Raków Częstochowa in Poland for the 3rd matchday of the UEFA Europa League. Sporting has split matches against the remaining Group D opponents so far, while Raków have failed to earn a point (or score) in this campaign. Will the Poles reverse their luck in this Sporting Europa League showdown, or will the Green and Whites assert their dominance? Read on to access our free expert betting pick.
Sporting Europa League Betting Odds vs Raków
Sporting CP’s away status has not swayed bookmakers heavily, as the club is favored to win. Highly-rated online sportsbook Bovada is offering (-110) on the Portuguese club, good for an implied probability of 52.4%. The hosts Raków Częstochowa are priced at (+285), just a bit higher than a draw. If both clubs share the spoils, bettors on the draw would cash at (+280).
To better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market, see our tips for how to bet on soccer online.
Sporting CP Schedule Shines Bright
Sporting CP’s recent schedule has been full of Ws in the win/loss column. Domestically, no one is placed higher than Sporting, who have won 7 of the first eight games. As the international window commenced, Sporting was riding a 5-game winning streak, with only a draw to Braga preventing a perfect season.
In their first Europa League match this season, Sporting CP were able to take care of business vs Austrian counterparts Sturm Graz. Two late goals were enough to complete the comeback after falling down a score. However, the reverse was true in their second match. Atalanta took firm control of the game after a shot by Matteo Ruggeri made it 2-0 in the first half. Sporting attempted another comeback but fell short, with only one goal earned via penalty kick.
Their last game before the international break was a feisty, physical affair with over 11 cards shown. This has been a frequent issue for Sporting, whose defense is tackle-heavy and is not afraid to engage defenders. Despite going down a man early, a strike from Hidemasa Morita proved to be the game winner in the second half.
Europa League Group D: A Two-Horse Race
This group appears to be a close battle, but realistically only between two clubs: Sporting Lisbon and the Italian side Atalanta. Sturm Graz and Raków Częstochowa are not expected to advance, or really threaten the top clubs to much capacity. There is a clear gap in talent and experience, mainly attributed to the domestic competitions in which the teams compete. Serie A of Italy and Primeira Liga of Portugal are much more prominent and superior flights than the Austrian Bundesliga or the Ekstraklasa, Poland’s top division in which Raków hails from.
The Europa League is considered a step down from the Champions League, but is still regarded highly as the second-tier European tournament. Sporting was able to make it far last year, even advancing past Arsenal in the Round of 16. However, this is only after they finished 3rd in their Champions League group.
While Atalanta and Sporting CP are amongst the favorites to win the UEFA Europa League this season, it is quite likely that a strong club who could not advance past the group stage of the Champions League will make a big splash in the lower tier. A club such as PSG, AC Milan, and Dortmund come to mind, who are stuck in a “Group of Death” scenario in the UCL but could wreak havoc in Europa.
Sporting Lisbon and Raków Częstochowa Advanced Stats
Expected goals (xG) serves as a valuable metric in soccer, gauging a team's performance based on the quality and quantity of scoring opportunities in a given match. In the Primeira Liga, Sporting Lisbon boasts an xG difference (xGD) of +0.54, indicating luck favored them with a 0.54 goal difference offensively and defensively against their opponents.
In comparison, KS Raków Częstochowa exhibits an xGD to actual goals difference of +0.97, making them nearly twice as fortunate as Sporting. It's crucial to note the limited data available this year and the diverse play styles in different leagues. Consequently, these metrics might not entirely mirror their actual performance and should be considered alongside various other factors when making betting decisions.
Sporting Europa League Match Prediction and Free Betting Pick
While betting on Raków Częstochowa is an endearing concept, they are a tough team to justify backing. Raków is making its first entry to the Europa League in their history, and have failed to qualify for the third-tier Europa Conference League in back-to-back years.
Sporting has looked better than ever this season domestically. A loss to Atalanta is concerning, but may provide betting value on the clearly superior side than anything else. Sporting should still believe they can not only advance in this group but win, and earning all 3 points after a domestic cup tie and a long international window is a great way to keep things moving in the right direction.
I recommend making a punt on Sporting CP to win the match at (-110) odds. I think this number should be higher for a club that has proven regional success and will not be afraid to compete at ArcelorMittal Park, a stadium whose attendance rarely surpasses 10,000.
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