Spain vs Germany: Do Spain Deserve to be Favorites?

A quarterfinal match is in store for soccer fans on Friday, and what a quarterfinal match it is. Germany and Spain are set for 90 minutes of high-quality action in a game that could arguably determine the winner of the entire Euro tournament, as no other teams have looked better than these two through four games. Germany, as the host side, will have their fans backing, but Spain’s new-look style from Luis de la Fuente could give them problems. Read on for an expert Germany vs Spain prediction and explore stats and a breakdown for Euro betting in 2024.

UEFA European Football Championship, Quarter-final
July 5, 2024 (Friday)
12 PM EST
MHPArena, Stuttgart, Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany
Spain vs Germany
FOX

Spain vs Germany Prediction: Who do Bettors Favor?

The home side is not the favorite, according to sportsbooks. Spain has been given a slight edge over their hosts to the tune of a price at (+172). Germany follows closely behind at (+183). If neither can find a difference after 90 minutes, draw bettors enjoy a payout of (+220).

Euro 2024
Germany	+183	+180	+180	+173	+173
Spain	+172	+165	+165	+165	+165
Draw	+218	+215	+220	+216	+216

Want to better understand the 1X2 moneyline market? See online soccer betting apps and learn about 2024 Euro betting.

Can Germany be First Hosts to Win Euros Since 1984?

Germany acts as hosts of this year’s Euro 2024 tournament, the first time they have held such an honor since West Germany welcomed their European competitors in 1988. Despite all the advantages you can imagine come with hosting the Euros, only 3 times has the host ever hoisted the trophy that same year. Italy technically won in 2020 as hosts in a 11-country format, but are attributed by most as not being true host winners.

That means you have to go back to France in 1984 to find your last hosts to win the European Championships. Germany has a great chance to become the first in 3 decades, as they have yet to have been defeated this summer. Disgraceful early exits in the past two World Cups have reinvigorated the Germans, who made key changes to their staff and squad. Now bolstered by youngsters Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala and steered by Julian Nagelsmann, new faces hope to return Germany to their former glory.

Germany To Win

+183

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Are Spain Beneficiaries of Weak Competition?

Spain has advanced to the quarterfinals with four successive wins, the only team to maintain a perfect record so far in the Euros. A 3-0 victory over 2018 World Cup finalist Croatia was the first sign Spain was a threat, followed by another shutout win over defending champions Italy. They then dispatched Albania and took care of Georgia 4-1 in the Round of 16 despite conceding the opening goal.

Yet when looking back at these results, one can’t help but wonder if their opponents were really as good as advertised. Albania can easily be written off, and Georgia, while making it out of the group stage, were fairly lucky to even get there. Croatia could not advance from their group and looked like a shell of their former selves. Even Italy produced nothing of quality against Switzerland in their knockout match.

So was Spain really that good, or were their opponents just bad? I lean towards the latter conclusion. If they fall to Germany, it would certainly be a shame for Spain to be knocked out so early. But perhaps they were never really as good as they seemed.

Spain To Win

+165

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Spain vs Germany Prediction and Free Euro Betting Pick

This line makes no sense to me. It screams of recency bias in favor of a Spain side that has looked the part of a champion, but have not been truly tested in this tournament. Prior to the beginning of this tournament, Germany was (+500) to win it all followed by Spain at (+700). This pricing was made knowing full well that if both sides won their groups and advanced in the Round of 16, they would likely meet each other in the quarterfinals. And here we are, yet Spain are favorites?

This is a must-bet on the German side. They have home field advantage as well as an extra day of rest. Spain will not maintain long stretches of play controlling possession, and when they have not had the ball, their defense has been shaky. Croatia proved that when they put up 2.16 expected goals when behind 3-0 to Spain, who sat back in a passive formation conceding many good opportunities to their opponents, including a penalty.

In any other situation, I would take Germany in the Draw No Bet market here. But I want some equity in the draw, since it is so enormously valuable in the knockout stages. So I will fork over the juice and pay a big price on Germany to win or draw in this game at (-195). I have a hard time envisioning Spain holding a lead for very long, so a win would have to come late in a tie game, a low-outcome possibility in my book.

Germany +0.5 Asian Handicap

-195

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Odds are accurate at the time of writing but are subject to change.

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