Pick Roma for Europa Glory

Sevilla v Roma
Wednesday May 31, 2023, 15:00 ET
At Puskas Arena

Sevilla is going for a seventh Europa League title but Roma looks the better pick ahead of the final.

Who do Bettors Favor?

Looking at the top-rated sportsbooks, it is clear that bettors favor Sevilla in this game, though not by a wide margin. The Spanish team is the +167 favorite to win, while Roma is rated as a +198 chance, and the draw is available at around +200.

Europa League Final
Sevilla	+167	+195	+198
Draw	+163	+202	+195
Roma	+165	+195	+194

Sevilla Going for Seven

The all-time record holder for Europa League wins, Sevilla is going for an incredible seventh title in this game, which comes at the end of a remarkable season.

Most of the campaign in La Liga has been spent battling relegation, but since the arrival of its third coach of the season in Jose Luis Mendilibar, Sevilla has undergone a dramatic transformation. Relegation was comfortably avoided and Mendilibar guided the team past Manchester United and Juventus en route to the final in Hungary and a chance to increase the club’s dominance of the Europa League.

The semi-final against Juventus was a close game, in which the first leg had ended in a 1-1 draw and the second leg had finished in normal time with the same scoreline, but in extra time, Erik Lamela scored a header that gave Sevilla the lead and it hung on to reach yet another final.

Mourinho Making History

Roma has had a less dramatic season domestically than Sevilla, but it too is in a position to make history as manager Jose Mourinho could become the first head coach to win the competition with three different teams, having lifted it in 2003 with Porto and in 2017 while at Manchester United.

It hasn’t always been pretty for Roma fans and they had to watch their team grind their way through a gritty away performance in the second leg of the semi-final as it held a 1-0 lead going to Bayer Leverkusen, where it managed only one shot in the whole game, but ultimately prevailed.

In Serie A, Roma’s challenge hasn’t been quite so dogged and it only has a slim chance of breaking into the top four, so winning this game is the club’s best shot at Champions League football next season. There are few better managers than Mourinho at winning a crucial knock-out game.

Europa League Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record shows that Sevilla and Roma have met only once before in European competition, in fact, in this same tournament, back in 2020, at the Round of 16 stage. The game took place in August of that year, due to the prolonged effect of the COVID-19 lockdown, and it ended with a 2-0 win for the Spanish team.

Europa League Team News

The team news for Sevilla remains mixed. The squad is still missing two center halves in Marcao and Tanguy Nianzou who picked up injuries at the end of April and will not be available until next season. There is better news about Jesus Navas as the right-back will be available for selection following a recent suspension, but left-back Marcos Acuna will be out due to an indirect card suspension.

Roma’s hopes will hinge on the return of key players, including Chris Smalling and Paulo Dybala for this game. In particular, Dybala would be a major addition, as the Roma front line has struggled to create chances and goals in recent games and the Argentinian star would add much-needed attacking impetus.

The Italian team also has some defensive gaps to plug. Right-back Rick Karsdorp will not be back this season, and the same goes for central defender Marash Kumbulla. Fullbacks Leonardo Spinazzola and Zeki Celic are both out with muscle problems, but could be back in time for this game, as could Lorenzo Pellegrini, who, like Dybala, is struggling with an ankle injury.

Europa League Match Betting Pick

Sevilla’s record in this competition is remarkable and that could give the Spanish team an advantage here, as that level of self-belief derived from dominating a tournament is not usually present when it comes to top-level knockout football finals such as the Europa League.

The team’s form under its third manager this season has certainly been remarkable and it is no surprise to see that it is the favorite to win a seventh title here.

Yet bettors could be overlooking the Mourinho factor. The decorated manager may not quite be the force he once was, but if his ability to deliver league titles has declined in recent years, his success rate in Cup competitions has not. Few managers are more adept at setting up a team for a crucial one-off game and I think Mourinho’s Roma looks like the value pick here.