Pick Inter to Earn a Draw Against Porto

Porto v Internazionale
Tuesday, March 14 2023, 15:00 ET
At Estadio do Dragao

Internazionale hold a one-goal lead in their Champions League Round of 16 tie against Porto and they look a solid pick to get a draw on Wednesday and reach the quarter-finals.

Who do Bettors Favor?

Checking out the odds at the top rated online sportsbooks, we can see that Internazionale is rated as the slight favorite by bettors, despite being the visiting team. The Italian team is priced at around +160 while Porto is second favorite at +170 and the draw is rated as a +240 chance.

Porto v Inter
Porto	+176	+169	+170
Draw	+235	+242	+240
Inter	+158	+159	+160

Porto Face Tough Challenge

Since winning the Champions League in 2004, Porto has not been beyond the quarter-final stage of the competition. This year, it came through a tough-looking Group B section, staging a remarkable recovery after losing both of its opening two games, against Atletico Madrid and Club Brugge.

Back to back victories over Bayer Leverkusen started the revival, then the Portuguese team completed its campaign with two more wins, to top the Group by a single point ahead of the Belgian team.

In domestic football, Porto has only lost three games all season. However, it trails rivals and league leaders Benfica in the Primeira Liga by eight points, with a narrow two-point gap back to third-placed Braga, the team that will be Porto’s next league opponents. Porto battled hard in Milan and a 1-0 loss was not a terrible result, but it faces a tough challenge against an Inter team that has only conceded two goals in its last five league games.

Inter Focused on Champions League

Internazionale remains the main challenger to Napoli in Serie A, but with the gap between the two teams well into double figures, it seems unlikely that Simone Inzhagi’s side will be able to overhaul the leaders, particularly as it has developed a habit of dropping crucial points in recent weeks, losing against Bologna and only managing a draw against bottom team Salernitana.

The focus then, will be on the Champions League, where Inter has performed strongly so far, coming out of a Group that included Bayern Munich and Barcelona. It lost both games against Bayern, but solid performances in its other four fixtures, including a home win over Barcelona, were enough to earn second place in the Group and this tie against Porto.

Inter had to work hard in the first leg, and given that Porto had a player sent off with 15 minutes to go, Inzhagi may be frustrated that his team did not finish with more in hand. Nevertheless, the onus will be on Porto to make the running here and that may suit Inter perfectly.

UCL Betting Head-to-Head

Porto and Internazionale are two of the biggest clubs in Europe and between them have won the Champions League and its precursor, the European Cup, on five occasions. Interestingly, their two Champions League wins were both achieved under the guidance of manager Jose Mourinho, who guided Porto to a surprise European success in 2004 and repeated the feat with Inter in 2010.

The head to head record of the two in the Champions League extends to just five games, but Inter has dominated the rivalry so far, winning three, with one game drawn.

Their first meeting came in the 2004/05 season, in the Round of 16, when Inter earned a draw in Portugal before winning the second leg 3-1 in Milan. A year later, they met again, this time in the Group stage, and this time the fixtures were shared with Inter winning 2-1 in Milan and Porto earning a 2-0 win in O porto.

The first leg of their current fixture was held at the San Siro on February 22. Porto’s Otavio was sent off on 76 minutes when he picked up his second yellow card, but the visiting team held on until four minutes before the end of normal time, when Romelu Lukaku scored the only goal of the game.

UCL Match Betting Pick

It’s a scenario that has been seen many, many times over the years in European football. An Italian team takes a one-goal lead into a second leg and successfully defends, playing out the match without taking any chances, progressing serenely to the next round.

The phenomenon of the impenetrable Italian defense has become a cliché, but looking ahead to this game, it could be relevant here. Inter has the stronger offense in this matchup, but the odds on it securing a second leg win look far too short, as it does not need to take unnecessary risks. Instead, the best choice in the Match Betting market is probably the normal time draw, which would be enough to get the Italian team through to the quarterfinals.

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