Napoli face Milan this weekend in a potential title decider. After splitting the points at home against Inter, the Nerazzurri have jumped to a three-point lead atop the table. Napoli must earn points here or risk falling out of the Scudetto picture. Read on for an expert Napoli vs Milan prediction and explore stats and tips for Napoli betting in 2025.
- SSC Napoli vs AC Milan
- March 30, 2025
- 2:45 PM EST
- Diego Armando Maradona Stadium, Naples, Italy
- Paramount+, FOX Deportes
Napoli vs Milan Betting Odds
Napoli are odds-on favorites to earn three points at home this Saturday. The Neapolitans are (-109) to win, good for an implied probability of 52.2%. Milan are priced at (+310) to do the same. A draw is lined at (+272).
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Napoli Under Pressure After Poor Stretch
Winners in just one of their last seven domestic tries, Napoli are still somehow in the title race. What was at one point a 50/50 battle with Inter just a few weeks ago has now devolved into a clear deficit for the Partenopei. One former Napoli player has an idea of what could have helped the club stay atop the table.
Salvatore Bagni believes the departure of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has hindered the club, describing the young star as a “complete footballer, dangerous even when playing on the right” (Kvaratskhelia is both-footed, but plays primarily on the left wing). His January sale to PSG was tremendously profitable for Napoli, returning €70m after an acquisition of just €13m in 2022. That being said, Bagni maintains Napoli will be in the fight until the end and manager Antonio Conte will remain with the club come summertime. Conte has been linked to a homecoming at Juventus after Thiago Motta’s unceremonious exit.
Fortunately for the Neopolitans, they have one of the easiest remaining schedules in Serie A. Their leftover opponents average a winning percentage of 43% (excluding draws). Only Empoli and Como have easier paths ahead. This weekend represents their toughest obstacle remaining, although Bologna away will also be tricky.
Comeback Specialists Milan Relying on Late-Game Heroics
Conceicao has expressed consternation dealing with a midseason appointment at such a famous club as Milan. Managing pressure and expectations all while working with a group of players he didn’t choose and had no time to train has been a thankless task. Supporters have questioned some of his decisions, but perhaps a bit of leeway should be given under the current circumstances. Besides, Milan is out of the running for all major trophies except for the Coppa Italia this season as Conceicao inherited essentially a lost cause.
More than half the club was away for international duty this week, challenging Milan’s depth immensely. A critical decision awaits Theo Hernandez, with the defender having played a full 120 minutes for France and missing a penalty in the process. Kyle Walker, Santiago Gimenez, Christian Pulisic, Yunus Musah, Rafael Leao, and Joao Felix all took part in international competitions as well.
It’s a rocky road ahead for Milan, and their performances in the coming weeks will likely decide if Milan have anything to play for come May. A two-legged derby is scheduled for the semifinals of the domestic cup. Milan is also still pushing for European contention, albeit from a 4-point deficit currently. Back-to-back wins over Como and Lecce have eased tension but this weekend will certainly ramp it right back up.
Napoli vs Milan Prediction
Upon returning from the international break, Napoli and Milan face off in what could decide the Scudetto winner. If Napoli loses, they will likely fall too far behind Inter. But a loss for Milan is equally devastating: a 7-point deficit from the top 6 could be insurmountable. Milan not participating in European competition would be a colossal failure.
From a personnel perspective, Milan are the side hurting the most. Conceicao, as he has had to deal with week in and week out, will have to make some tough selection decisions. Bookmakers are bullish on Napoli’s odds of winning, and I have to agree. They have been dominant at home and seem to rise to the occasion against bigger clubs.
My projections have Napoli as (-125) favorites, so I think there is a slim margin for value at this spot. Most books have Napoli at (-110), but shop around. I was able to get (-102). But anything (-110) or better is a worthy number to wager on. Most of the value is also on the defensive end for Napoli also, so if you don’t want to pick a side, I think the total is slightly off as well.
Most sportsbooks have under 2.5 total goals around (-115), but I have it projected at (-134). So there are plenty of avenues to earn a pretty penny come Saturday. You could even get specific and go with Milan under 0.5 team total goals.
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