This Saturday, the Galaxy host the Red Bulls in the final match of the 2024 MLS season. Although many analysts predicted that Inter Miami would win the East, it was the seventh-seeded RBNY that defeated Columbus in the opening round and advanced to their second-ever final. Who will lift the renowned Philip F. Anschutz Trophy this weekend? Continue reading for an expert MLS Cup betting prediction and explore 2024 MLS Cup Final tips and stats.
- Major League Soccer Cup Final
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs New York Red Bulls
- December 7, 2024
- 4 PM EST
- Dignity Health Sports Park, Carson, CA
- Apple TV (free)
MLS Cup Betting Odds for Final
LA Galaxy will host the Final, providing them a distinct advantage over their Eastern Conference counterparts. That leg up is enough to make the side odds-on favorites in the winner-take-all showdown this Saturday. The odds for the Los Angeles-based team to win in 90 minutes are (-120). Despite being a huge underdog at (+310), the visiting Red Bulls are used to being undervalued as the seventh seed.
The draw is lined at (+300). In that case, penalties will be imposed after extra time. Bookmakers also provide odds for "Lift the Trophy,” as this is a cup tie (and the final, of course). The Galaxy's implied probability of winning the MLS Cup is 68.8%, according to bookies, who have put them at (-220) to Lift the Trophy.
Want to better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market? See our soccer betting tips and learn about 2024 MLS Cup betting odds.
Los Angeles Will Feel the Heat Saturday Afternoon
Wordplay aside, all the pressure is on the Los Angeles Galaxy in this cup final. A star-studded cast of players including German star Marco Reus have outlasted their Western competitors. But since they are the #2 seed, losing would be a huge letdown, especially since they are playing in the final at home.
One could argue that the Galaxy's journey to the title has been quite easy, especially from an MLS Cup betting perspective. It would have been more difficult to play the Colorado Rapids in the first round during the summer, when Colorado was in the midst of a purple patch. However, without their star player, Djordje Mihailovic, the Rapids limped into the playoffs and were no threat. The Galaxy then defeated the fourth-seeded Seattle Sounders and sixth-seeded Minnesota United at home.
The Galaxy will not face a top-3 seed and will have played one road game in these playoffs, just the one required in the best-of-three first-round series. In the MLS, things don't get much easier than this, so supporters will be anticipating joyous celebrations as owners calculate their possible profits. But can they handle business and meet their lofty expectations? The New York Red Bulls are the squad most suited to ruin the celebration.
NY Red Bulls’ Tactics in a Nutshell: Hot Potato
When the regular season concluded, few would have predicted that the New York Red Bulls would win the Eastern Conference (at least in the MLS Cup Playoffs), yet here they are. Through a combination of outstanding goalkeeping, effective out-of-possession play, and a little bit of good fortune, the Red Bulls have advanced to their second MLS Cup final in their thirty-year history.
When regaining possession, Red Bulls love to launch a swift counterattack to surprise opposing opponents. In the Conference Championship game, Orlando City attempted to take advantage of this, but it ultimately backfired. Orlando gave up control in an effort to make Red Bulls try long-term attempts and mount their own counterattacks. Orlando had fewer chances to equalize without possession, though, and a set piece goal from one of those attacks ended up being the game-winning goal.
The Galaxy's ability to break through Red Bulls' defense and keep them from opening up too much during buildup in their own half will probably be the main focus of this MLS Cup Final because Los Angeles is more than comfortable controlling the ball. New York's strength in counters and set pieces. Those strengths have long been seen as equalizing variables in soccer. That makes it no surprise then that the New York Red Bulls are this year’s Cinderella story.
MLS Cup Final Prediction and MLS Cup Betting Free Pick
I think the total here is more valuable, even if I would like to support the Red Bulls to win this game handily and possibly force extra time. You see, there are two possible outcomes from a match like this one.
The Galaxy dominate possession but send few numbers up in attack to weaken the counter, so it could be a cagey match that concludes with one goal or fewer. Each club's most recent game went like this. A wild, end-to-end final could also arise from one team scoring early and forcing the other team to make a mistake. This result is comparable to what we saw in the Galaxy's 6-2 victory over Minnesota.
Due to the fact that they are in different conferences, these clubs have only met four times since 2017. However, at least four goals have been scored in those encounters. Additionally, at least five goals have been scored in three of the Galaxy's four postseason games this season.
According to my calculations, over 2.5 should be placed at (-392), yet there are lines of (-148) available. Given that this is a knockout match and it is quite late in the season, such a huge advantage should be somewhat ignored. Game theory and fatigue will be major factors in lowering goalscoring, but I find it hard to defend such a low total given the bookmakers' estimates.
I would advise holding off on betting on the over until gameday because the bookmakers are still moving this in the under direction. However, in what may be an extremely fascinating final, I will advise a full unit gamble on the over at a flat line of 3. Who doesn't enjoy cheering for goals, anyway?
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