Houston Dynamo take on Los Angeles FC in an immediate rematch of last week’s encounter between these two sides. Houston shocked supporters in LA with a decisive 2-0 victory. Now they return home with a chance to complete the double. Read on to access an expert MLS betting prediction and explore stats and a breakdown of the Houston Dynamo vs LAFC soccer match.
- Major League Soccer
- Houston Dynamo vs Los Angeles FC
- September 7, 2024
- 8:30 PM EST
- Shell Energy Stadium
- MLS Season Pass on Apple TV
Houston Dynamo vs LAFC Soccer MLS Betting Odds
Houston Dynamo are the favorites to win back-to-back games against LAFC at (+115). LAFC are (+242) to return the favor and claim a road win in this fixture. A draw, which would see teams level after 90 minutes, would cash out at a price of (+275).
Want to better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market? See our soccer betting tips and learn about MLS betting in 2024.
Can Los Angeles FC Make a Run in the West?
LAFC have been very busy in the last week and a half. They played the Columbus Crew in the final of the Leagues Cup, then hit the road just a few days later to play the Seattle Sounders in the U.S. Open Cup semi-final. Their match against the Houston Dynamo last week was their third in six days.
From an analytical perspective, the advanced statistics love Los Angeles FC. They rank amongst the top in both expected goals and expected goals allowed. The recent addition of Olivier Giroud complicates matters, however. His presence in the lineup has not directly contributed to success yet, with the team losing in the League Cup final and losing in their return to domestic action as well.
In fact, LAFC’s lone win since Giroud made his first start for the club came when they rested the Frenchman. While his large frame and incredible finishing instincts should bode well for them on paper, LAFC must navigate the growing pains of Giroud’s addition to the lineup soon or risk falling down the table in the West.
Houston Dynamo Pushing for Home Playoff Game
September has come around, which means the mid-table MLS teams will be doing all their calculations to determine what needs to happen for them to earn home field advantage in the MLS Cup Playoffs. Houston fits right in that boat, a side that is currently 7th in the West but only 4 points behind 4th-placed Colorado, and with a game to spare. The top 4 seeds in each conference will play their first-round opponents in a best-of-3 series, with their higher status giving them the privilege of hosting a potentially deciding match.
That makes the next six weeks critical for the Houston Dynamo if they hope to avoid a top seed (like LAFC) and start their postseason at Shell Energy Stadium. By just looking at their results, one would be forgiven to think Houston’s home turf is more like a muddy pit. Here are the score lines of Houston’s last 5 designated home matches: 0-1, 3-0, 0-1, 1-1, and 1-0. That is an average of just 1.6 total goals, including two clean sheets and two occasions where the Dynamo failed to score themselves.
Houston tends to slow down the pace and dominate possession when they play at home, which LAFC will likely be comfortable with. Los Angeles FC is the best counter-attacking side in the country by a mile and won’t mind conceding ball control if they believe it will open up opportunities on the break. What that could easily lead to is a 0-0 or 1-0 game deep into the second half, with only dramatics left to determine the final MLS betting total.
MLS Betting Free Pick: The Total Play to Make
I believe LAFC should make this one a closer one than they did last time out. They accrued over one expected goal, making a score line of 2-1 a more accurate outcome. They were also playing their third match in just six days. But now they must make the trip to Houston after just losing at home, a difficult psychological position for any professional team.
While I believe there is some value on LAFC, the line is trending in the other direction so I will wait. If the Draw No Bet line on Los Angeles reaches (+160) or better, I will be very compelled to make a play. But at the moment, I will focus my betting hunches on the total.
My projections have the under 2.5 at a true line of (-145), so I love the value on the under 2.75 goals here at even money. This number gives us half our stake back in the event of a 3-goal game, and we are still not paying any juice. It may be wise to continue waiting to see where this line moves, however. It appears we are trying to get in front of some steam, which I am comfortable doing but still makes me a bit more conservative.
Go with the under for just a half unit now, especially considering the high variance typically seen in MLS betting.
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