Pick Milan for Turin Success Against Juventus

Juventus v Milan
Sunday May 28 2023, 14:45 ET
At Allianz Stadium, Turin

Old rivals Milan and Juventus are battling for European qualification places, but Milan looks the best pick to finish with three points on Sunday.

Who do Bettors Favor?

A quick look at the leading sports betting sites (and you can check our top sportsbooks reviews here) shows that bettors favor the home team here, though by a relatively small margin. Juventus is rated at between +125 and +142 to win on Sunday, with the draw priced up at around +240 and the win for Milan currently odds of between +204 and +215.

Juventus v Milan
Juventus	+142	+136	+125
Draw	+240	+236	+240
Milan	+205	+204	+215

Juventus On the Brink

Knocked out of the Europa League and the Coppa Italia and beaten a long way in the race for the Serie A title, Juventus has had a miserable season and on Monday things got a lot worse.

First came the news that the club had been deducted ten points for a breach of financial rules. While this was a lesser punishment than the 15 points it was set to receive originally, it was enough to drop the team down the Serie A table and out of the European places. To compound the negativity, Juventus then lost 4-1 to lowly Empoli, putting them on the brink of failing to qualify for Europe.

Now positioned in seventh in the table, Juventus is a point off the sixth spot and five points short of the top four. With only two games to go, it seems unlikely that Massimiliano Allegri’s team would be able to earn a Champions League spot, but to miss out on Europe is unthinkable for a club of this stature and would likely have repercussions for the manager.

Going into that Empoli game, Juventus had recorded three victories in a row, but it picked the worst possible time to lose unexpectedly and the players now have to pick themselves up for another big effort at the end of what has been a long and difficult season.

Milan Find Form

Milan’s exit from the Champions League at hands of Internazionale will take some time for the players to recover from, but last weekend, they did at least return to some kind of form with a 5-1 win over Sampdoria, which may also help dispel memories of their previous Serie A defeat to Spezia.

This has been a tough spring for Stefano Pioli’s side, which has won four from 12 in Serie A, but it has been thrown a lifeline by the points deduction for Juventus, which dropped the Turin club out of the top six and moved Milan up to fourth, and the final Champions League qualification spot.

Milan is now in the position of being able to control its fate. Although Atalanta, Roma and Juventus are all within range of the fourth-placed teams, if Milan wins both of its remaining two games, it cannot be overtaken and will at least be able to salvage Champions League football from a below average season.

Serie A Betting Head-to-Head

This is one of the oldest rivalries in European soccer between two of the big guns of the game. Both have enjoyed domestic and European success and have taken turns having the upper hand against one another in Serie A, though the head-to-head record shows that Milan has dominated in recent years.

Milan has gone four games without defeat in this rivalry, winning two and claiming two draws. Last time the two teams met, in October, goals from Fikayo Tomori and Brahim were enough to earn Milan a 2-0 win at the San Siro in Turin.

Serie A Team News

It is the end of a gruelling season, so not surprisingly the team news for both teams is not great. For Juventus, Allegri will have to pick a team without Nicolo Fagioli, who has a fractured collarbone and will miss the remainder of the season, while Mattia De Sciglio, Paul Pogba, and Leonardo Bonucci are all out. Juan Cuadrado is still out suspended, but Danilo could be in line for a return.

For Milan, Pioli also has to shuffle a squad hampered by several critical absences going into the last two games of the season. Alessandro Florenzi and Zlatan Ibrahimovic are long-term absentees, while Divock Origi, Aster Vranckx, and Ante Rebic are out too, along with Ismael Bennacer.

Serie A Match Betting Pick

These old rivals are both struggling at the sharp end of the season, but of the two, Milan is in the stronger position. Although injuries and suspensions have taken their toll on both, it is Juventus that seems to be worse off in terms of morale, after its points deduction and the shock Empoli loss. Milan found some form at the right time against Sampdoria and I’m picking them to edge this.

Best Online Sportsbooks to Bet on Serie A

Check out the top soccer betting sites below. You can get the best Serie A and Champions League betting when you wager on European soccer with these recommended betting partners.