Mazatlan takes on Club America this Friday at home in Sinaloa. It is a murderer’s row for the Gunners to end their Liga MX Apertura season, with matchups against Tigres UANL, Pumas UNAM and the mighty Eagles. America are coming off a thrilling 2-1 victory over Monterrey, recovering from an obvious goalkeeper error to score a late winner. Read on for an expert Mazatlan vs Club America prediction and explore Liga MX betting tips and stats.
- Liga BBVA MX
- Mazatlan FC vs Club America
- November 1, 2024
- 11 PM EST
- Estadi El Encanto, Mazatlan, Sinaloa, Mexico
- ViX, Fubo
Mazatlan vs Club America Betting Odds
Mazatlan are underdogs to defeat defending Apertura champions Club America at home. The Gunners have a (+250) price tag attached to their name this weekend, while Club America are near odds-on favorites at (+105). A draw is lined similarly to a Mazatlan victory at (+240).
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Mazatlan Picking Up Steam Late in Apertura
A scoreless draw with Santos Laguna at the weekend makes it 5 clean sheets in their last seven tries in Liga MX for Mazatlan. The club seems to have found a groove defensively. In fact, they have only given up multiple goals once since returning from Leagues Cup competition, against Queretaro of all clubs. A 2-0 victory over Tigres UANL surely gives the club confidence of similar success against the visiting America, who bear less teeth than a year ago.
Albeit likely out of the playoff race, there is still plenty to fight for at Mazatlan. A 4-match unbeaten streak is on the line, including a 6-match unbeaten streak at home. Indeed, the Gunners have not fallen on their home turf this season. A playoff-hungry Club America may prove to be their toughest test yet.
Victor Manuel Vucetich, Mazatlan’s current manager is nicknamed “El Rey Midas.” The moniker derives from Vucetich’s ability to boost the performance of every club he joins. He is one of the most decorated managers in the history of Liga MX, with a laundry list of trophies and comically long resume. Vucetich has at one point coached over half of the existing clubs in the top division of Mexican soccer. However, his last major trophy is a now-defunct Copa MX earned back in 2016.
Club America Set for Worst Finish in Years
With a five-point cushion separating themselves from 11th-placed Leon, it appears Club America are in a relatively safe position to secure a playoff spot. But America have won just twice in their last seven matches and seem to be essentially a non-factor in the title race. It is highly likely that all of America’s playoff games would take place in enemy territory, leaving fans pessimistic about their chances of a three-peat. Additionally, Club America would have to go through the play-in round of the liguilla tournament, assuming they can’t rally in their last three games to earn a top-6 spot.
Leading 1-0 heading into the final moments of their match against Monterrey, Club America goalkeeper Luis Malagon committed a terrible blunder to concede an equalizing goal. But the Eagles bounced right back with a winner just a few minutes later to claim victory on home turf in their temporary stadium in Mexico City. While the turnout was lower than a typical America game played at Estadio Azteca, the joy of the supporting fans was apparent as Club America looked to amend its record.
The victory restored faith amongst fans that Club America could still make a push in the postseason. After all, the bracket-style tournament was created in the 1970s as a way to introduce more opportunity for surprise results and give lower-ranked clubs a chance to earn more winnings. While it was originally intended to suppress the dominance of Televisa-backed Club America, perhaps the Eagles can use the format to their advantage this time around,
Mazatlan vs Club America Prediction and Free Liga MX Betting Pick
Mazatlan are a very intriguing team to follow. They are a small, young club with very little experience in the top flight and no big names to speak of on the roster. Yet under Vuletich they have built an impenetrable fortress at home. Mazatlan has not lost a game in their city, relying on a stout back line to keep games scoreless.
While such a strategy is not conducive to earning results on the road, it has been good enough to surprise some visiting teams like Tigres. Mazatlan surprised the current 3rd-placed side with two late goals in their shutout win last home game. Their bend-don’t-break style of defense conceded 31 total shots yet was lucky enough to pick up a clean sheet on the night.
I think Club America’s name value precedes them and always inflates their betting odds moreso than necessary against worse teams when on the road. Mazatlan are, if looking at goal differential, a playoff bubble team.
My projection model, based on a combination of expected goals and actual goals from home and away splits, indicates Mazatlan should be closer to a (+200) favorite. Indeed, Mazatlan should be only (+127) in the Draw No Bet market. That, along with their strong run of form in recent weeks, is enough for me to validate a half unit wager on Mazatlan.
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